I had a little trouble getting my blog groove back after

the recent hiatus but I had a few thoughts to share this morning so I was going to try. However my blog writing page doesn't look right. The input box is much larger and the toolbar is gone. There are entry fields for URL and MIME Type under the heading Enclosure which leave me feeling clueless. How can I attach pictures or links without the toolbar? Down below there are little instructions about using Control B and Control I which don't work. and I'd prefer the toolbar regardless.

(Comment was saved to note pad Sunday and posted Monday when things were back to normal)

Anyway, here's what I was going to discuss

In the winter of 1998, two separate teams of astronomers in Berkeley, California, made a similar, startling discovery. They were both observing supernovae -- exploding stars visible over great distances -- to see how fast the universe is expanding. In accordance with prevailing scientific wisdom, the astronomers expected to find the rate of expansion to be decreasing, Instead they found it to be increasing -- a discovery which has since "shaken astronomy to its core" (Astronomy, October 1999).

This discovery would have come as no surprise to Georges Lemaitre (1894-1966), a Belgian mathematician and Catholic priest who developed the theory of the Big Bang. Lemaitre described the beginning of the universe as a burst of fireworks, comparing galaxies to the burning embers spreading out in a growing sphere from the center of the burst. He believed this burst of fireworks was the beginning of time, taking place on "a day without yesterday."

After decades of struggle, other scientists came to accept the Big Bang as fact. But while most scientists -- including the mathematician Stephen Hawking -- predicted that gravity would eventually slow down the expansion of the universe and make the universe fall back toward its center, Lemaitre believed that the universe would keep expanding. He argued that the Big Bang was a unique event, while other scientists believed that the universe would shrink to the point of another Big Bang, and so on. The observations made in Berkeley supported Lemaitre's contention that the Big Bang was in fact "a day without yesterday." 'A Day Without Yesterday': Georges Lemaitre & the Big Bang by Mark Midbon, Commonweal (March 24, 2000): 18-19.




Lemaitre proposed the big bang theory in 1927. Einstein first rejected, then grudgingly accepted the theory. In fact the term "big bang" was coined by a Cambridge physicist in the 40's who was proposing an alternative theory. Lemaitre's paper was titled "A homogeneous Universe of constant mass and growing radius accounting for the radial velocity (radial velocity: Velocity along the line of sight toward or away from the observer) of extragalactic nebulae". Big Bang does roll off the tongue a little more easily. By 1966 at the time of Lemaitre's death it was almost universally accepted, but until the 1998 observations physicists were reluctant to accept Lemaitre's conclusion that the Big Bang was a one time event.
When word of the 1998 Berkeley discovery that the universe is expanding at an increasing rate first reached Stephen Hawking, he said it was too preliminary to be taken seriously. Later, he changed his mind. "I have now had more time to consider the observations, and they look quite good," he told Astronomy magazine (October 1999). "This led me to reconsider my theoretical prejudices."

Chickie

The electricity failed one night at Janett's sister in law, Sally's place here in Georgia. A coyote took advantage of the darkness to break into the coop and kill a couple chicken's including Sally's favorite. It struck Janett that a baby chick would be a nice gift for Sally, so we went to a feedstore Saturday evening and grand daughter Hannah picked out a chick.



We neglected to ask what kind of chick we were purchasing. I later googled to try to find a breed description that matched our little traveling companion. From McMurray Hatchery I got this description and picture.



BLACK STAR: A wonderful brown egg layer that will weigh a little over 5 lbs. The females are black with gold hackle and breast feathers and are egg laying machines.

One commenter said Hello! I just wanted to take the time to comment on the Black Star. I have one who is now two years old named Beamer. I grew up with chickens as pets, but she is truly unique! She follows me everywhere, comes when I call her and even sits on my lap. I would recommend this breed to anyone interested in raising a great pet. She's also a terrific egg-layer, which is a plus! Katie Glassmoyer Greenville, SC

Boy, we may have found an excellent chick for Sally. Too bad they can't be house-broken.

Since you took the trouble to come here, I'll share

this with you.

At Jekyll Island we saw a resort building named

Sans Souci which translates to "without care". The building contained six apartments, two on each floor. The original tenants included J P Morgan and John D. Rockerfeller. There were other houses on the island, not quite mansions, but fancier than most of our ideas of cottages.



The name may ring a bell because Frederick the Great of Prussia had built a palace called Sanssouci in Potsdam, near Berlin in the eighteenth century. The snapshot of Sanssouci doesnt really do it justice.



One commentator said The south facing garden façade. Frederick the Great ignored his architect's advice to place the piano nobile* upon a low ground floor. As a result, the palace failed to take maximum advantage of its location. Its windows are devoid of views, and seen from its lower terraces it appears to be more of an orangery than a palace. But other views of this palace and other buildings there bring to mind the term "rococco" for their ornateness.

*The piano nobile is the principal floor of a large house, usually built in one of the styles of classical renaissance architecture.

Ok, forget everything we told you

Betsy's husband, Bill has been skeptical about our abilty to validate the theories relating global warmimg to greenhouse emissions. I thought he was allowing his political sentiments to influence his scientific objectivity. Maybe not. He mentioned these new observations while we were at his home on Sunday. So stop worrying about warming and look out for the new ice age.

Boy, this clip actually isn't funny, and really it's

kind of sad. My brother Mike sent it to me.



Well, I guess it's a little funny. Thanks Mike

Oh no, it's him again

I'm posting the final section of an article by simon Johnson from Atlantic Online. Of course, I think you should give it a once over. I know I'm a downer, and we'd all rather not to have to deal with this crap every day, but this crap is going to deal with us in unfortunate, if not tragic ways. Knowing what is happening and what is likely to happen, at least allows us to brace for the assault, and maybe marginally mitigate our circumstances. At least, now that it's happening there are plenty of skilled and informed commentators writing articles to clip and paste, and you don't have to read as much of my laboured prose.

In my view, the U.S. faces two plausible scenarios. The first involves complicated bank-by-bank deals and a continual drumbeat of (repeated) bailouts, like the ones we saw in February with Citigroup and AIG. The administration will try to muddle through, and confusion will reign.

Boris Fyodorov, the late finance minister of Russia, struggled for much of the past 20 years against oligarchs, corruption, and abuse of authority in all its forms. He liked to say that confusion and chaos were very much in the interests of the powerful—letting them take things, legally and illegally, with impunity. When inflation is high, who can say what a piece of property is really worth? When the credit system is supported by byzantine government arrangements and backroom deals, how do you know that you aren’t being fleeced?

Our future could be one in which continued tumult feeds the looting of the financial system, and we talk more and more about exactly how our oligarchs became bandits and how the economy just can’t seem to get into gear.

The second scenario begins more bleakly, and might end that way too. But it does provide at least some hope that we’ll be shaken out of our torpor. It goes like this: the global economy continues to deteriorate, the banking system in east-central Europe collapses, and—because eastern Europe’s banks are mostly owned by western European banks—justifiable fears of government insolvency spread throughout the Continent. Creditors take further hits and confidence falls further. The Asian economies that export manufactured goods are devastated, and the commodity producers in Latin America and Africa are not much better off. A dramatic worsening of the global environment forces the U.S. economy, already staggering, down onto both knees. The baseline growth rates used in the administration’s current budget are increasingly seen as unrealistic, and the rosy “stress scenario” that the U.S. Treasury is currently using to evaluate banks’ balance sheets becomes a source of great embarrassment.

Under this kind of pressure, and faced with the prospect of a national and global collapse, minds may become more concentrated.

The conventional wisdom among the elite is still that the current slump “cannot be as bad as the Great Depression.” This view is wrong. What we face now could, in fact, be worse than the Great Depression—because the world is now so much more interconnected and because the banking sector is now so big. We face a synchronized downturn in almost all countries, a weakening of confidence among individuals and firms, and major problems for government finances. If our leadership wakes up to the potential consequences, we may yet see dramatic action on the banking system and a breaking of the old elite. Let us hope it is not then too late.

I want a shower

We went for a walk at Lord's Park today, then I put in a few hours at the office. This evening I'm the mop and vacuum guy. I want to clean up and cool off first, maybe change into shorts and a jersey. One day near 80 and I have a Summer's Here attitude. I made a pitcher of iced tea and while it's chilling a bit I thought I'd write.

You know what? I'm just going to post this very nice picture of Janett, Owen, and me and write later.




Things we might have talked about:
Do you think the Road to Emmaus is an OK First Communion gift to an eight year old?

Do you think the markets high close today means this rally will continue, or are you thinking "double top"?

Why haven't I even mentioned the Blue Gold Spring game?

I just looked up Activision

They make WoW and Guitar Hero. Begads, sometime's it's better not to know. Anyway, here's what their chart looks like.




.

Just goes to show how wrong you can be

I mentioned yesterday having lost money on agn and dri. I don't mean to beat a dead horse but look at DRI today.



It's up 50% from where I bought my put. Chipotles, Cracker Barrel, Buffalo Wild Wings, Dine Equity (Applebees and Ihop) are all running up in the current rally. I guess we've found something American's are good at - dining out.

The song that snaps me out of it

Mick taylor's Rolling Stones

Here's a happy picture

I'm cranky and out of sorts

I felt like typing "I already know what you think and you don't care what I think" or visa versa. Which wouldn't be true, but reflects a monumental self absorbtion. Maybe because I didn't make Easter services, I'm a little out of touch with God.

Maybe, because Janett and I were quarreling about inconsequential things today.

Maybe because I lost money on two consecutive trades.

Maybe because I'm floundering about in my efforts to get the bookkeeping business off the ground.

Maybe it's the sense of the economic malaise, accentuated with my cynicism

Maybe it's something in my horoscope.

But there are good things, too. It was sunny and around seventy today. Kim posted pictures from her garden. Janett posted a slideshow of photos from our trip to Fabyan park, and Steffy posted Easter pictures with a nice comment.

Saturday I'm invited to a luncheon at Jose's celebrating Abraham's first holy communion and Sunday I'm invited to Betsy's for a Traynor family get together. We are picking up a few bookkeeping clients, and yesterday I made a very careful purchase on a put, using all the tools in my little toolbox, which still looks OK. (Activision, but I've got my eye on BOK Financial.)
Tonight, I even got to make a call to an old friend about the reunion.

But I'm still colored in earth tones and lack that radiant aura that I always assume envelops me.

PS Floundering must be about the fish.

I'm embarrassed to stand before you after AGN

galloped 2$ up on Thursday, breaking my down-trend lines and leaving me with a loss on Friday whwn my option expired. But i had to bring you the news that Susan Boyle is facing some spirited competition in the current England's Most Talented. Take a look.

Steff and the boys had us over for Easter.

Mark was busy at church till after we'd gone home, but there were plenty of leftovers, and Kim and Ross said they'd come back tomorrow.

That blog post I copied here about Geithner and

Goldman Sachs, and others by the same author must have hurt someone's feelimg at GS.

Goldman Sachs hires law firm to shut blogger's site

Goldman Sachs is attempting to shut down a dissident blogger who is extremely critical of the investment bank, its board members and its practices.

By James Quinn, Wall Street Correspondent
Last Updated: 2:16PM BST 11 Apr 2009

The New York headquarters of Goldman Sachs, which has instructed a Wall Street law firm to tell a blogger to stop criticising the bank.

The bank has instructed Wall Street law firm Chadbourne & Parke to pursue blogger Mike Morgan, warning him in a recent cease-and-desist letter that he may face legal action if he does not close down his website.

Florida-based Mr Morgan began a blog entitled "Facts about Goldman Sachs" – the web address for which is goldmansachs666.com – just a few weeks ago.

According to Chadbourne & Parke's letter, dated April 8, the bank is rattled because the site "violates several of Goldman Sachs' intellectual property rights" and also "implies a relationship" with the bank itself.

Unsurprisingly for a man who has conjoined the bank's name with the Number of the Beast – although he jokingly points out that 666 was also the S&P500's bear-market bottom – Mr Morgan is unlikely to go down without a fight.

He claims he has followed all legal requirements to own and operate the website – and that the header of the site clearly states that the content has not been approved by the bank....

I don't think they have a case, but they can hire enough lawyers to keep him too busy to post objective assessments and honest appraisals.

As in re most matters spiritual, I refer you to Kim's blog

Her quote from Frederick Buechner reminds us that God gave up his son to suffer and die in order to show He would overcome wickedness, His own human vulnerability, and death. Why? To extend to us the opportunity to do the same.

Shocked but not surprised, Asia edition

Thailand - pesky mice,

PATTAYA, Thailand (Reuters) – A summit of Asian leaders in Thailand was canceled on Saturday after anti-government protesters swarmed into the meeting's venue, renewing doubts about the durability of the government.

The events will pile more pressure on an economy teetering on the brink of recession, especially if foreign tourists are put off by the scenes of chaos and emboldened protesters intensify the fight to kick out Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Abhisit imposed a state of emergency for a few hours in Pattaya, a resort about 150 kms (90 miles) south of Bangkok best known for its racy nightlife and as a port of call for U.S. sailors*, which was to host the East Asia Summit.

He lifted it after the foreign leaders had left the country. About half of them had had to be evacuated by helicopter from the venue to a nearby military airbase.

The summit fiasco is a huge embarrassment for Abhisit's government, which came to power in December through parliamentary defections that the opposition says were engineered by the army.

*cute

our old friend Hekmatyar,

Holbrooke reaches out to Hekmatyar
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

The recent meeting between a deputy of Richard Holbrooke, the United States special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and an emissary of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan (HIA), is by all accounts a landmark move in the United States' stated aim of involving militant groups in ending the conflict in Afghanistan.

The choice of Hekmatyar also indicates just how desperate the US is in finding an escape route from the escalating crisis in Afghanistan. Hekmatyar is a declared terrorist with a reported $25 million price on his head. The 61-year-old engineer from Kunduz province and his anti-government fighters are responsible for large numbers of attacks against Afghan and international forces, mainly in the northeast of the country. For years, Washington has branded Hekmatyar an irreconcilable militant.

The HIA, founded by Hekmatyar, was one of the most effective mujahideen groups to fight the Soviet invasion during the 1980s. But, according to reports, the party became a favorite of Pakistan's intelligence agency and Hekmatyar's men were known as the most fundamentalist of all Afghan resistance fighters.

To date, however, the US has failed miserably in attracting mainstream Afghan forces of the past back into the political process, including tribal warlords, the Taliban, the Northern Alliance and the HIA. This means, as Peter Lee wrote last month in Asia Times Online, "...the unpredictable Hekmatyar, who has survived the jihad, the civil war, defeat at the hands of the Taliban, exile in Iraq, an assassination attempt by the CIA, and return to Afghanistan as an insurgent leader, is the great hope of all parties as the only Pashtun strongman untainted by al-Qaeda and possibly capable of taking on the Taliban."

and a new concern

Cows With Gas: India's Contribution to Global Warming
By MADHUR SINGH / NEW DELHI Madhur Singh / New Delhi – Sat Apr 11, 2:00 am ET
Indolent cows languidly chewing their cud while befuddled motorists honk and maneuver their vehicles around them are images as stereotypically Indian as saffron-clad holy men and the Taj Mahal. Now, however, India's ubiquitous cows - of which there are 283 million, more than anywhere else in the world - have assumed a more menacing role as they become part of the climate change debate.

By burping, belching and excreting copious amounts of methane - a greenhouse gas that traps 20 times more heat than carbon dioxide - India's livestock of roughly 485 million (including sheep and goats) contribute more to global warming than the vehicles they obstruct. With new research suggesting that emission of methane by Indian livestock is higher than previously estimated, scientists are furiously working at designing diets to help bovines and other ruminants eat better, stay more energetic and secrete lesser amounts of the offensive gas

Redacted

L_____ and J_____ dropped in this evening and J_____ brought Janett a lovely gift. In the course of the visit it came to light that parties not to be named thought my reference in a previous post to L_____'s not to be named horse was, potentially, a source of embarassment to L______. That post has been deleted. I am filled with remorse and apologise profusely to all concerned.

Any and all other person(s) named in any past or future posting at this site are humbly requested to notify this writer of any possible discomfort any such reference(s) may (have) cause(d). The offending post(s) will be likewise deleted and (a) similar apology(ies) issued.

Sincerely,

A___

One other thing before bed

I followed a link to the Asia Times On Line. I've dropped in there often enough that I ought to mention to you all that it should be one of your top three news links, and I'm not sure who the other two ought to be. Link

PS that wasn't entirely true. I guess you need Google News. then BBC or NPR with honorable mention to C S Monitor. Oh, and I used to try to read the Economist, but for the casual observer, their stuff is a little ponderous.

Flowers for Allgeran

This is a picture of my AGN chart from Incredible charts. It shows the stock at the high end of its declining range, bumpimg off the 50% retracement level. I pay $12 per month for this service and the charts can be updated daily.



Click Here forthe AGN chart from BestFreeCharts showing the same trend line, and the same Fibonacci retracement level, but with more panache, and the free service updates at almost any interval you'd like (1 min, 5 min, 10 min,...daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly) and shows market activity in real time

Which do you prefer? and would you think less of me for using one rather than the other?

"Oh, the Mendacity"

Burl Ives said that in a movie made from a Tennessee Williams play, maybe Cat on a Hot Tin Roof, with Elizabeth Taylor. Hmmm, maybe my blog does have a theme, with frequent asides.

I'm sure you've all noticed the link to Slope of Hope, Tim Knight's (technical) market analysis blog that I refer to sometimes. Well, click here, and I'll take you there, where you'll find links to three UTube videos from the Bill Moyers show. Moyers is interviewing a former regulator, Bill Black, about the financial crisis. You should watch these. They're interesting and easy to understand, and more than a little disconcerting.

I'm beginning to register some disappointment in Obama as he allows the Goldman Sachs crew, especially Larry Summers, to funnel hundreds of billions of money the government has to borrow, and that taxpayers will have to pay back, to the corrupt institutions and individuals that knowingly perpetrated fraud in order to collect their bonuses, supposedly "earned" by packaging up crappy debt and poisoning world-wide financial markets with it.*

Because some of my readers are too young to remember, Bill Moyers was President Johnson's press secretary. Over the years he has outlived the unfortunate association with the Viet Nam war and is probably the only true representative of the populist tradition left in the American media. Good for you, Bill.

Oh, and one other serious question, After bailing out the banks from the mortgage debt crisis, do the G-S guys plan to bail out the banks in the consumer debt crisis now developing, and then the munincipal debt crisis which will follow, as well as the commercial debt crisis we can all see coming? Come on Barack. You have very limited time to find a radical solution to an unprecedented dilemna. Relying on the self same representatives of the corrupt system that created this mess isn't going to lead to an acceptable outcome (and vouching for their credibilty now insulates them from the legal penalties they should be facing.)

*68 word sentence, a new record?

Cacophonous

My blog lacks a theme.

I post about whatever's on my mind. Visitors don't know what to expect, and probably find some posts uninteresting, or even annoying. Is there a benefit to being informed on a topic you don't really care about? It kind of gets back to the inductive vs deductive thing.

One can observe the big picture and try to figure out how it happened to develop, or one can observe a myriad of lesser phenomena and try to assemble them into a workable model.

Anyway, sorry to be chaotic. Hope it doesn't give you a headache.

I mentioned in my Tuesday post re Louie that I had bought

an AGN put. After the DNI debacle I didn't want to make a big deal out of it.
Also, I felt bad about shorting into a rally. The stock han run up $10 dollars a couple of days before on acquisition rumors which were probably just rumors.

That's the chart I was looking at. I sold a 45 put at 46.50. The stock went up to 48.50 this week. What do you think?

Geithner = Dupe?

Last week I posted that Geithner reminded me of Bobby the day after Jack got shot. This blogger suggests that Geithner was at best a willing dupe of the Goldman Sachs crew.

Facts About Goldman Sachs
An open forum for facts and discussion about what part Goldman Sachs and their executives played in the current Global Economic Crisis.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Geithner - Goldman - PIMROCK
I received this from a reliable source. I cannot verify everything in this post, but I don't see anything out of place or totally off the wall. - Mike

I've been peeling the onion on Geithner, and I keep coming up with more onion. What I've learned, however, allows me to shed a little light on "PIMROCK" (PIMCO, BlackRock)..

Pete Peterson, former Chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, hand picked Geithner for the position of NY Fed President. Geithner was a Senior Fellow on the Council on Foreign Relations. Peterson was co-founder and CEO of the Blackstone Group hedge fund, which spun off BlackRock. 49% of BlackRock is owned by Merrill Lynch. Merrill Lynch is owned by Bank of America. Bank of America and Bank of America bonds have arguably taken over from Citigroup as the most important financial stock and bonds to watch.

Geithner, who was little more than a glorified clerk, was made President of the NY Fed in 2003. His boss and chief advisor was Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. Alan Greenspan works today as a consultant for PIMCO. "Why would PIMROCK go along with this?.....because they hold $100B in J.P. Citi of America bonds, and they've received assurances that if we can get the nation out of the financial pickle it's in, there will be no haircuts on those bonds." (quoting Waldman).

Who really ran the NY Fed when Giethner was President? Well, his three "class-A" Directors were Jamie Dimon, Stephen Friedman and Richard Fuld.

Jamie Dimon is the CEO of JP Morgan, receipient of at least $25 billion in TARP money and another $30 billion in Fed funds collateralized by Bear Stearns paper (which had been formally managed by BlackRock, and is now being paid for by the US taxpayers). The Bear Stearns give away to JPM was supposed to be Geithner's idea, but it had to be Dimon's idea. After all, Geithner is worth $1.6 million while Dimon is personally worth over $2 billion. Who was the real force behind that deal?

NY Fed board member Stephen Friedman, also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, was Chairman of Goldman Sachs until 1994. Friedman still sits on Goldman's board. I think it's safe to say he's got the Fed looking after Goldman Sach's interests. But, just in case, there is Edward F. Murphy, Execuitve VP of the NY Fed. Murphy was A former VP and CFO at Goldman Sachs.

Former Lehman CEO, Richard Fuld, who resigned his position on the NY Fed Board when Lehman collapsed, was the sacrificial lamb. The Lehman collapse had to happen, if for no other reason, so that Geithner could send Dimon $138 billion to give to Citigroup to cover the $138 billion in bad paper it was stuck with. So, even though Lehman went down, those Citigroup/Bank of NY Mellon bondholders walked away whole. Geithner had to protect his old Treasury boss, Rubin, who had over $100 million stuck in Citigroup.

Ironically, another of Geithner's former bosses, Larry Summers, who was working for the D. E. Shaw & Co., a hedge fund that Fortune Magazine called, "the most intriguing and mysterious force on Wall Street", and that specialized in acquiring the assets of distressed companies, dumped a 20% share of that quant company on Lehman in 2007.

I guess Shaw & Co. had learned its lessons about bad assets after it had been clobbered during the LCTM (Long Term Capital Management) crash. If you remember, it was Summers who negotiated the LCTM bailout. It looks like he finally got rewarded by Shaw & Co., a company best known for its "quantitave investment strategies particularly statistical arbitrage". Anyway, don't cry for Richard Fuld, he still walked away with over $22 million. Fuld, GE CEO Jeff Immelt and GS CEO LLoyd Blankfein all sit on the board of the Robinhood Foundation. I ain't making this stuff up.

E. Gerald Corrigan was the 7th President of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY and the Vice-Chairman of the Fed Open Market Committee. He had one of the strongest influences on Geithner. Who else influenced Geithner when he was NY Fed Chairman? According to Corrigan, "He (Geithner) brings in groups of people. That includes, at times, some of his old Treasury buddies"(he's talking about Rubin and Summers). "As I said, he has really worked at this networking thing I keep talking about". Rubin, of course, was not only Geithner's former boss at Treasury, but he was also a former CEO of Goldman Sachs. Corrigan, by the way, is now a Chairman at Goldman Sachs.

John Thain, that other Goldman Sachs guy, once bragged about his access to Geithner. He said, "sometimes I talk to him multiple times a day".

Remember, John Thain, former CEO of Merrill Lynch and of $35,000 toilet fame (where much money was flushed), when Merrill owned BlackRock, had, at one time, been COO at Goldman Sachs until 2003. Then he went on to become Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange.

So, when BlackRock was controlling the Bear Stearn/JPM "assets" at the Fed, it was Thain, the former Goldman Sachs COO, who managed the company that owned the company that "managed" the toxic Fed (now taxpayer) assets. It gets complicated, but whether it was Thain managing the BS/JPM assets, or Thain running the NY Stock Exchange, it's just one more Goldman Sachs crony running another part of the corrupt business universe. All we can do is to continue to CONNECT THE DOTS.......

Obama at ND

I probably should have posted on this topic, but in a display of moral ambivalence, didn't. Kim did, and even though I probably have from none to few readers who don't go to Kim's site, I thought, at least, I could copy it.


As of today, more than 190,000 people have signed a petition in protest of President Obama's selection to be the commencement speaker and honorary degree recipient at Notre Dame on May 17th. Obama carried the majority of Catholics in the presidential election, so why do so many of them oppose this honor?

Christianity Today has an insightful conversation with Francis Beckwith, visiting fellow at Notre Dame, on this contentious issue. Here's an excerpt:

Since the President will speak at several commencement ceremonies during his term, why did his invitation to speak at Notre Dame create such a stir?

There's nothing wrong with inviting speakers to campus who disagree with the university. I don't think that's the issue here. Here, you have a combination of a commencement address and an honorary doctorate. The honorary doctorate is more troubling than the commencement address because to give him an honorary doctorate in law is to say that he's accomplished something in the field of law that the University of Notre Dame wants to honor. In the past three weeks, we've seen a number of different events, one of which was the change in policy on embryonic stem cell research. The problem is, the areas in which he's been involved with legislation on the issue of abortion have been contrary to Catholic teaching.

Colleges regularly invite people whom they may disagree with to speak on campus. For instance, Wheaton College invited Condoleezza Rice to speak at commencement even though she is pro-choice.

I can see a situation where you have an elected official who may be pro-choice, but it's not the focus or center of their legislative history. For instance, Houston Baptist invited Rudolph Giuliani, but he just gave a speech. He even acknowledged in his speech, "Look, my views on abortion are not held by a vast majority of you in the audience." But I think that Houston Baptist would not have given him an honorary doctorate in law. One of the things Obama is working on right now is perhaps overturning the conscience clause that the Bush administration had instituted, which has a direct bearing on Catholic hospitals. Here, you have a case where somebody claims to extol the virtue of choice but wants to remove choice from the conscience of citizens when it comes to performing or referring people for abortions.

...


Pope John Paul II issued Ex Corde Ecclesiae in 1990 stressing the importance of the Catholic character of Catholic institutions of higher learning. How has Ex Corde Ecclesiae influenced this current debate?

I think the statement has given them a template to look at the relationship between Catholic theology and the university. If places like Notre Dame took it seriously, an invitation to be the commencement speaker and receive an honorary doctorate would not have gone out. For instance, I would welcome Barack Obama to speak at Baylor. But in this case, the honorary doctorate doesn't go to the office of the President. It goes to Barack Obama, even after he ceases to be president. In a way, that gives an imprimatur on him and his views that I don't think Notre Dame should give him. I think if he were just the commencement speaker and not receiving the honorary doctorate, it would tone down the criticism. How can Notre Dame give him an honorary doctorate for excellence in something that our own theology teaches he isn't excellent in?

The real debate is whether theological claims can count as knowledge. I think that's what the Pope is saying: if we think theology is true and knowable, that means it's no different than what we learn in literature or sociology or philosophy. If that's the case, the university is where we should integrate these areas of knowledge. Theology shouldn't be an after thought. It shouldn't be relegated to campus ministry. It's like in the evangelical world, tagging on a Bible verse. You'll have a book on Christianity and science and it'll be regular science and a section of Bible verses. You think, "This isn't integration, this is weird."

This reminds me of Madeline L'Engle's exploration of faith and art in Walking on Water. Art, if it fails to tell the truth, can never be great art, no matter how clever and skillful the artist. Barack Obama may be a great man in many ways, but until he recognizes the truth about the value of human life he will continue to create policies that are at best, weak and at worst, massively destructive.

I think the graduating class of '09 could be really inspired by whatever Obama has to say on May 17th, and I wouldn't want to deprive them of the oppurtunity to hear that. We don't have to agree with everything a person believes to learn from them. But for a Catholic University to bestow an honorary doctorate on someone who clearly has a very poor understanding of the most fundamental rights of Americans is either hollow flattery or major ignorance and, either way, completely inappropriate for an institution of such stature.

Posted by Kimberly Cangelosi

Twitter

Lauren's blog has links to her tweets(?). Cool, but I think passing Facebook is a prerequisite. I'm not there yet.

Miasma

I think that's what I'm in.

Janett is not feeling well and is getting depressed about not feeling well and about not being able to regain weight or strength. She's also getting tired of my "buck up, little camper" approach.

I closed my CNI position for a small gain Monday, and thought I'd go short later in the day when the rslly petered out, but it didn't so I didn't. I didn't go long though, because the rally seemed more like a short covering rally than a things are getting better rally. The volume wasn't high enough to indicate a lot of people were buying. Some of the bearish commentators admitted to getting beat up pretty badly this week. I'll think about buying cheap puts Monday morning,

Tuesday, I tried out cold calling to contact new businesses in the Elgin area, not very satisfying. I don't know Elgin all that well and spent time driving aroung looking for addresses. Wednesday I started looking into a GPS device. There's a Garmin 205 model that Best Buy sells for around $150*. That sounds Ok to me. I'm now waiting for Janett to muster the energy for a trip to Best Buy, an outing she'd normally enjoy. Maybe later today.

I visited Kim's blog site. She writes really well and adds photos and, occasionally, other art. Some creature had eaten her tulips. I kind of feel the same way.

* If the review I looked at was current.

AIG Article

Kim and I think the best explanation of the financial crisis was provided by NPR a couple months ago. Tim Knight found a real good evaluation of the AIG situation in the recent Rolling Stone. Geithner must feel like Bobby Kennedy the day after Jack got shot. Everybody was in on it but him, and he can't trust anyone. (The everybody being all the Goldman Sachs guys who share the old Bullmoose phiosophy, "What's good for Goldman Sachs is good for the USA!" - and if it isn't it's still good for Goldman Sachs).

Also in the news, Check your bananas.

World's deadliest spider found in Tulsa store
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Print 1 hr 56 mins agoTULSA, Okla. –

One of the most deadly spiders in the world has been found in the produce section of a Tulsa grocery store. An employee of Whole Foods Market found the Brazilian Wandering Spider Sunday in bananas from Honduras and managed to catch it in a container.

The spider was given to University of Tulsa Animal Facilities director Terry Childs who said this type of spider kills more people than any other.

Childs said a bite will kill a person in about 25 minutes and while there is an antidote he doesn't know of any in the Tulsa area.

Spiders often are found in imported produce, and a manager at Whole Foods says the store regularly checks its goods and that's how the spider was found.

___

Information from: KOTV-TV, http://www.newson6.com

Probably, I'm just in a bad mood (see DRI)

but Yahoo news featured a link to a blogger article about anti-semitism so I went there and found it was the author's view that criticism of Israel's murderous violence against women, children, and the elderly (which groups suffered half the fatalities in Israel's recent "War on Terror") were in fact manifestations of anti-semitism. I tried to post a helpful comment, but ran into some kind of impediment.

Here's what appears on my screen when I visit the Meryl Yourish site:

29 Tom Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
The Israelis did the right thing in humiliating Hamas and killing many.Screw the world and don,t give in to the killers.And I don,t even like the Israelis.

30 Norm Deguere Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
Fact 1: Anti-Israel = Anti-Semetism.
Fact 2: Most Arab governments are NOT secular or democratic.
Fact 3: Israel is clearly the homeland of the Jews. What more do the Muslims want? They have 1/3 of the world and begrudge one Jewish state? One sliver of the world. I mean, the third most important site in Islam stands on the MOST important site to Jews.

Clearly, Israel is in the right. This isn’t rocket science.

31 Andy Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
March 19th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
I thought the natives of the middle east were semites and that the Ashkenazi Jews who largely populate Israel were descended from the Khazars. a Turkic-Mongol tribe whose chief converted his people to Judaism in the 7th century to avoid entagling alliances with the Byzantine or Russian empires. (and to whom Yaweh presumably promised nothing.) Strange that this group after settling in Poland and Russia would become the principal adherents of Zionism and return to a homeland that was never theirs in the first place.
So really it would seem the Israelis are the anti-semites. I hope the facts won’t complicate the discussion too badly.

32 Steve Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Radical Islam is the 21st century equivalent of National Socialism. To paraphrase Golda Meir, when the Palestinians desire their own homeland as much as they want to destroy Israel, then there will be peace.

33 Steve Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
Norm,

That’s as dumb as saying

Fact: Anti-Bush = Anti-American

34 Magyarorszager Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
You know, there is some real critisism over Israel, but the majority is fake, Leftist/Fascist style Propaganda. I don’t think Israel should be destroyed. Israel’s Army never does wrong to others, but there are isolated incidents where there is problems. What I am sick of is BBC or ABC7 posting anti-Israeli (caugh) Anti- Semetic (caugh) biased coverage. It shames me that people from otherwise civilized nations like “Norvay”, “Spain” or “Sveden” are going to the streets. And some claim that Israel’s existance can not play the Holocaust Card. Well, you know what I have to say is that it’s NEARLY all shit the critics are throwing. As long as there are Holocaust Survivors, and their very far decendants are around, Israel will be guaranteed to stay.

But, just as an extra, I personally think Finland, Denmark and major parts of South Korea/India (other than the muslims there)are the only Non-Jewish nations to succesfully put Anti-Semetism in Critical Conditions, like that skiier… ( Trust me, I feel very bad since she passed away, but this is different.)

There might be an Anti-Zionist Elephant there in Saudi Arabia or Iran, but even it, and all the extreme Leftists out there in God’s Universe are not enough to even Mame the Pro-Zionist/Israeli Turtle out there. The Jews (I am Catholic) may be small in number, but they have the power of 15 million Hydrogen Bombs.

35 David Holbert Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
I simply cannot fathom most people’s inability to tell the difference between the arsonist and the fireman (after all, they are both at the fire and smell like smoke). Israel is a tiny part of the world trying to fend off anilation. The Arabs are clearly bent on the distruction of Israel and the conquering of Europe. Wake up!

36 Andy Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
March 19th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
Meryl,

My recent comment on anti-semitism has been “awaiting moderatiom” for over 50 minutes, and four comments (32, 33, 34, and 35) have shown up on the board since I entered mine. Is there some problem with the tone or content? In the interest of preserving the unquestioned integrity of your site, please post my comment. Or post this one by way of acknowleging to your readers, that thoughtful posts are not always welcomed by Meryl Yourish.


My comments are numbered 31 and 36, and, I thought elevated the tone of the discussion.

What am I doing wrong?

I don't think I'm crazy but maybe I am.

It's that DRI (Darden Restaurants)thing again. This trade has troubled me even more than my GYMB put last winter. Then, I had a May contract at $35 and when it expired the stock was trading $10 higher than that. After my expiration date it dropped back to $35, then 6 mo later to $25, then a couple weeks ago from $25 to $15 in a couple of days. That was a blowout for me, and like with Darden I never placed a stop loss order. I suppose it was a show of defiance. But I'm a year more experienced now and, one would hope smarter, so why am I stuck in another death grip with a stock that refuses to fall. Darden went as low as $24.11 on the 6th then rebounded to over $30 today. Well, my put expires this Friday and earnings are due to be reported Wednesday and the stock has to fall below $24 for me to break even. Even a bad earnings report on Wednesday might not drop the stock $6 in two days. So did I graciously acknowledge defeat and accept the couple hundred dollar loss with poise and equanimity? Of course not - I bought a $30 put also closing on Friday. If the stock drops to 27.00 by Friday I'll clear enough to cover the loss on the other contract and call it a moral victory. Meanwhile the Canadian railway call has done pretty well, and Caterpillar was up then back down. Maybe I'll close them in the morning and focus all my emotional energy on negative vibes for Darden. If Darden is up a buck and a half tomorrow you probably wont hear from me for a couple of days.

On a happier note Kim and Ross celebrated their first anniversary this week. Hooray for them. They dropped by Saturday and we talked and laughed a lot. Ooops, I'm on my new laptop and don't have a picture to post. I'll do that tomorrow.

I couldn't wait so I went to Kim's blog and swiped a photo:





Love to all.

Pakistan?

In my effort to comment occasionally on current topics in the news, I've run up against the sand dune that is Pakistan. Sand dune because it's shaped by wind and tides, because it's hard to gain footing or traction, because there seems to be a top, but no pinnacle; a nuclear power with vast numbers of urban poor, vast numbers of rural poor, military elite, corrupt governments, wealthy industrialists, scheming entrepeneurs, ungovernable tribal regions, border hostilities with India, Islamic fundamentalists, and the WOG's.

WOGs are "westernized oriental gentlemen", a phenomena common in the aftermath of British colonial rule. I'm particularly referring to the legal community. The fellows in with black suits with brief cases currently in the news for demonstrating against President Zadari, who won election in 2008. Their principle complaint is Zadari's failure to reinstate a supreme court chief justice fired by the former military dictator, Musharraf. The problem for Zadari, widower of assasinated Benazir Bhutto, is that the supreme court justice had been clear in saying he wouldn't approve of Musharraf's deal that allowed Bhutto to bring her husband back to Pakistan after he was exiled, having served prison time on corruption convictions.

Zadari's problems also involve the former prime minister, Sharif, who was deposed by Musharraf and leads an opposition party. Sharif was a good Prime Minister, and is the son of a leading industrialist, posessing considerable personal wealth. Zadari's problem is that when Sharif led his party into an alliance with Zadari he stated two conditions, that there would be no deal struck with Musharraf, and that the Supreme Court justice would be reinstated. Zadari, inheriting Bhutto's party, was going to win the election after Bhutto's assasination, so why did he agree to that second condition? Presumably, because he knew that once elected he would ignore it, and use the powers of the office to isolate and marginalize Sharif. He's tried.

While Sharif is not an Islamist, he is a nationalist, and has gotten along with the generals in the past. Zadari is a corrupt opportunist who married well, and enjoys the support of the US because he's tolerant of American incursions into the tribal regions bordering Afghanistan. He's replaced his wife's senior advisors with his own people in the party hierarchy. As I've said before, if you want to appraise the state of American diplomacy, look at the people we're supporting abroad. Usually, they're of the Zadari ilk.

The generals will play a role in settling the current unrest, and may not support Zadari too strenuously, since his ties to America will impose on the army the role of fighting with the Islamic fundamentalists, a job they don't really want and, based on recent developments in the Swat valley, may not be competent to do.

PS One other complicating factor in the Pakistani formulation is a simmering antagonism between natives and the more enterprising emigres who fled India in the late 40's. Shamir's father was one of those emigres.

Personalities

Market forces are bigger than personalities, but personalities are interesting.
I remember a young man named Phil Purcell from Notre Dame. He was a nice fellow, thoughtful and intelligent. He was successful in his career. After ND he attended the U of C and the London School of Economics. After a stint with the consulting firm, McKinsey and Co, he joined Sears at the Chicago headquarters as director of planning and acquisitions. He managed Sear's acquisition of Dean Witter, and started up the Discover credit card. He managed the spin-off of Dean Witter from Sears and as CEO of Dean Witter led that brokerage to growth and profitability and eventually the acquisition of the investment banking firm of Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley enjoyed growth and profitability under his leadership. He emphasized the traditional businesses of consumer brokerage and investment banking and was not an advocate of the more highly leveraged investments coming into vogue on Wall Street.

He also declined to participate in the Big Apple culture, commuting to his home in Winfield, Ill. at week-ends. The New Yorkers labelled him as an egotistical outsider and when he dismissed executives who protested his conservative leadership the New Yorkers started a very public public campaign to have him ousted, which eventually succeeded.

Siding with the Group of Eight former partners at Morgan Stanley advocating Purcell's dismissal was Vikram Pandit, one of the Wall Street crowd who had been annoyed with Purcell's emphasis on a traditional banking and investment philosophy, and Purcell's failure to have Morgan Stanley acquire (or be acquired by) one of the high flying banks to increase available capital for bigger deal making.

The big bonus investment bankers ultimately were successful in forcing Purcell out at Morgan Stanley, but in retrospect, judging by results at the other investment companies and those high flying banks, I wonder if Purcell wasn't correct in his approach and vindicated by subsequent events. His buy out at Morgan Stanley was 60 million dollars, so I guess we don't have to worry about Purcell, and he's probably been happier to survey the carnage on Wall Street from his home in Winfield than he would have been dealing with the self promoting investment bankers on Wall Street.

Vikram Pandit, the Big Apple's favorite, ended up at Citigroup, from where he sparked yesterday's rally with a letter to employees saying he couldn't understand why the banks share prices were so low since the company had booked profits for the first two months of 2009. Well, Vikram, I suppose your timely announcement precedes the requisite write down of bad assets at quarter end, and might have been a ploy in your efforts to persuade Washington to amend the mark to market requirements, but if you really don't know why Citi's shares are in the tank, just stick around.

aaargh

Well the rally's here.

I brought some more "insurance" in the form of a April call on Caterpillar.

My DRI position may end up as a total loss. Even if the earnings report is bad on the 15th, if there's a rally going on, analysts will say performance was bad, but "better than expected" and the company is "well positioned for the recovery"; neither of which happen to be true, but may reflect the mood of the market.

On a happier note, Janett had a q-p-w-c for lunch with fries and a vanilla shake, and cleaned her plate. Good enough news in itself, but then she wasn't hungry at dinner time, and I was left to my own devices and heated up some kielbasa in a can of butter beans. I, likewise, cleaned my plate. Yumm, butter beans.

Tax season is slowing down, so I'm cranking up my marketing psyche, referring to a list of new business licences issued for the last nine months in Cook and the collar counties to comprise a prospect list. Thanks, Tribune. What will we do when there are no more newspapers?

Circles within circles

Sunday morning. Mom and I are watching an old movie (1943) named The More the Merrier wirh Jean Arthur, Charles Coburn, and Joel McCrea. It's a funny movie, directed by George Stevens. I ought to go the the movie data base and check out Jean Arthur. I think I've enjoyed her performances in other movies.

Meanwhile, I was reading this news story. What the heck is going on?

Please excuse my recent fit of pique,

It was late. I was tired and angry about being on the long side of a trade and that Darden wasn't falling. I didn't do the things I said I would do. I entered the orders, but cancelled them when the market was opening higher the next morning. Darden closed below $25 today, and is trading below short, medium, and long term moving averages, all three of which are now declining. CNI is above 30, having enjoyed a good day yesterday and a not so good day today. I think a quarterly earnings report from Darden is due out on the 15th. Put volume was very heavy at $25 early this week which I think means a lot of other folks share my anticipation of a decline in the share price. Of course for every buyer there has to be a seller.

I haven't previously mentioned the 50 year reunion being organized for my grammar school class. John S. and Tom C. are the planners. Tom gave me the names of four people to call to elicit interest, and the memories the names brought to mind, though some, of course, were embarassing make me think I'd really enjoy seeing the four of them and as many others as might show up.

Janett and I had a good day today including running some errands, walking around a bit and lunching out. Uh Oh, Mark just called looking for a missing cake pan. I've got to check the cupboards. Hmmm I guess I've never written that word before.

I need to be more positive.

I need to consider my venture to the bullish side as though I was simply taking out insurance to protect me in the event a rally had occurred. I need to love my negative side. I need to close out that Canadian Railway insurance policy and buy a put on Visa.

I need to celebrate as the credit card company gets its just deserts and revel at the rewards as Darden crashes. Sure a rally is still possible, but am I the kind of guy who's happy being long a railroad stock? Not since I was ten and buying the B&O at the Monopoly board.

I'm a bear, and I know it's crappy out there and getting crappier.

Janett is doing a little better the last couple of days. Not making any promises, but if its 50 on Friday and not raining I'm going to try to go for a walk with her.

Tomorrow, besides completing a clients 1120, I plan on a visit at Steffy and Mark's for dome playtime with the boys.

Now, I have to go out and move my car to the other sise of the street.

PS I also have to find my speakers and plug them in so I can listen to my playlist.
Also, I want to listen to more of our Christmas present from John. There hasn't been enough music in my life the last couple months.

A quote

The most violent revolutions in an individuals beliefs leave most of his old order standing......... New truth is always a go-between, a smoother-over of transitions. It marries old opinion to new fact so as ever to show a minimum of jolt, a maximum of continuity.

~ William James (1906)

Hmmm, maybe the rally monkey was trying to marry old opinion to new facts. The Canadian Railway stock I bought a call on as a bullish play has lost just over 2% as compared to 5 or 6% on the S&P and DJIA, but yesterday dropped below its previous low. I should close out that position, but probably won't. The good news is that DRI is down 8% over the same 5 days.

March 1, still

I was going to go to Willow Creek with Louie, but didn't wake up in time. I guess I was tired. I'll read a little of What Paul Meant, instead. Someone named Dave Ramsey was epeaking there today, a nationally syndicated financial writer who shares Bill Hybel's respect for living debt free, and so counselled the flock. He also suggested the market was at it's bottom, and said he was increasing the allocation into equities in his personal monthly budget. Though the market was down on Friday (including the Canadian National Railway, but not my nemesis, Darden), I'll wait for Monday to see if this rally is really going to happen.

Just now, I'm awaiting a visit from Steffie, Mark, and the boys. She's going to augment my housekeeping efforts by taking the vaccuum out for a spin around the place. I hope she'll resist the temptation to take the dishes I've washed from the cupboard and rewash them.

March 1st

The Stanger boys. (courtesy of Steffy)


Owen remains his own man,


but Malachy is in a relationship.

In re my tech guru comments, he's likeable and bright, but "Golden Age of Capitalism"? Maybe 1945 to 1965, but even that I doubt.

Below are some thoughts from my tech guru,

I would say he'd be characterized as a overt capitalist, so he's not repudiating the system just the practices employed by aggresive unscrupulous practicioners.
I'll post somerthing more personal later

In my view, 1982 through 2007 was the golden age of capitalism. No one announced its beginning, and very few people realized its end, but as measured by the pendulum of social and economic change, I believe the generational timespan of that quarter-century embodies the resurgence, and then self-immolation, of American capitalism.

Off the top of my head, those years, we had:

Reagonomics;
Yuppies;
The great bull markets of 1982-1987 and 1991-2000;
Lower taxes;
A more docile IRS;
A resurgence in Republican strength (think Newt Gingrinch);
A strong America capable of winning major wars in 72 hours;
Historic IPOs like Netscape and Google;
The rise of Silicon Valley from obscurity to the center of the world;
Economic globalization (think BRIC);
The collapse of the USSR;
Hero-worship of the rich (including hedge fund managers);
Widespread popularity of books about money and assets;
I could go on and on, but you get the idea.

The pendulum has just started to swing the other way, and I don't think it's a little bobble before we return to the above. I seriously think we are in for just as long as period - - and just as deep a change - - as the era above. We'll be stumbling our way back to where things were in the late 1970s..........malaise, weakness, and Billy Beer.


What would people think if, just six months ago, you speculated that Citigroup would be a nationalized institution? Would they laugh at you? Look at you as if you were insane? Cart you off to a rubber room?

That, of course, is just the tip of the iceberg. When Obama speaks of a "once-in-a-generation opportunity" to change the government, he isn't talking about remodeling the oval office. The "opportunity" is the most dramatic expansion of the government and its instrusions than any of us have seen in our lifetimes.

All I'm saying is that the market's 50%+ plunge is signaling the changes to come, and then the market finally bottoms (and my best guess is that this is going to be in the 4000 area on the Dow), we will have been witness to exploited "opportunities" that we can scarcely imagine today.

The recently announced rally has been indefinitely

postponed. At least it didn't happen today. Which is fine. My Canadian railroad was down 16 cents. The important thing is that Darden fell $1.75 today and is now below (slightly) its 50 day moving average, and the 38.6 retracement level. That's a 6% decline for the day and brings the stock back where I "sold" it. The stock was down early when the Dow was up 100, so I don't think it was just following the market down. Maybe someone got a peak at the numbers for the quarter just ended, and didn't like what they saw.

I really don't want a rally to lift Darden. As you may have noticed, I've become emotionally involved. But Louie's rationale, while not convincing, is compelling. One thing I didn't mention last night, but the afficiandos among you realize, is that 7100 on the Dow is one half the high of 72 weeks ago. There is a rally lurking out there.

Maybe going from a 100 point gain this morning to an 88 point loss this evening will delay the rally for anther day or two, and we could see another 80 point loss with Darden leading the way down.

Tim Knight posted a list of 30 stocks with bullish possibilities today. While he's
not ready to go long just yet, I think the little hairs on the back of his neck are standing up too.

Louie says...

its rally time in the stock market. Last week he was projecting a low of 7100 on the Dow based on what appeared (to me) to be a technically obscure 7100 high twelve years ago. Now having reached that projected low and seeing a double bottom on the Dow, and being 72 weeks out from the top he says its rally time. Hmmmm, 12 years is 144 months and 72 is half of 144. I don't know why these kind of numbers are significant, but I do believe wizard technicians look at the market having at least 2dimensions. Price movement being the vertical, time being the horizontal, with volume a possible candidate for the third dimension of depth. When we used to enjoy more time at the bar Louie would spend hours explaining Gann theories to me, and lapse into numeralogical phenomenology. When he introduced astrological observations, I'd know we were late for the door. Anyway, he's not saying that the market won't eventually go lower, but he's projecting at least a rally to the post election high of around 8,600.

Since he went to the trouble of phoning me with this prognosis, I'll swallow my pride and go look for an attractive call to buy.

It's later now and I entered an order to buy CNI (Canadian National Railway)
Things in Canada are pretty OK, Eh? My call is for April at $30 and cost me $4.20.
Well, $420, actually. That means I'm buying the right to purchase the stock in April for $30 The stock is now at $32.66. First, I went to Tim Knight's site to see if he was reccomending any specific calls. Nope, none, not a one. He's very bearish. OK, Louie we're on our own on this one. PS I didn't close out my DRI.

Hi.

Did I tell you abouy my cell phone? I left it at the office on my last day of work. I knew I was leaving without it, but I'd looked everywhere. I hoped I'd left it at home, though I was pretty sure I hadn't. Well, it turned up there last week and I ran over there and picked it up today. I mention that because it may be a contributing cause of my current sense of isolation; perhaps solitude is a better word.

I've been interacting with folks positively, family, friends, associates. Is my sense of aloneness a phenomena that afflicts people who try to start a little business? Thank goodness I don't have to worry about meeting a payroll.

Or is DRI making me crazy? The market was down big on Friday and Darden was up nearly a dollar. Down 84 cents today. An investment blog today described them as being practically a dead man walking, with a current ratio of .4 and an acid test ratio of .1. These are very bad numbers, but still the stock refuses to crack.

I'm not worried about a couple hundred bucks, and I never claim infallibility. I just don't like the market telling me I'm wrong when I think I'm right.

On a homier note, we called the pizza place this evening an asked them to deliver a couple sandwiches. Italian sausage for me. Rick's Special for Janett. That's an Italian beef with green peppers and red sauce and cheese. Oh, and she ordered onion rings with it. She only ate half, but I think that kind of appetite is probably a good sign. She's still weak and hasn't felt well. I take my encouragement where I can get it these days.

Love to all.

the market

What with all that's been happening, I haven't mentioned my last trade. As I've said before I try not to do anything in the market when Janett's unwell because my judgement and focus may be impaired. I entered an order to buy a Darden put the Saturday night before Janett and I went to the hospital.
The stock price was around 26.25 so I bought a put at 25. In the following weeks the stock price rose to 29.60 - whoops! But that was the same price at which a recent high was reached and the stock fell away from that high before my purchase, so I hoped it would be a price the stock would not surpass. Sure enough the price declined in the last several days back to 27.20 The issue is still in doubt.
I didn't have a good technical reason for going short at that point, except that the stock price had doubled in the last couple months, and that I hoped the 29.60 price would resist penetration and protect me on the upside.
My reason for "shorting" the stock was that in the bad economy sales volume would fall and the company has borrowed a LOT of money short term to finance expansion. I was motivated by the prospect that the stock could give back much of it's gains from the $14 low on November 20. Second guessing myself, I think institutional investors feel the company's restaurants (Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Bahama Breeze) have "brand identity" that will maintain their customer base even in tough times. Also, I think the company has a good PR team promoting this attitude. On the contrary, I think the restaurants will start to cut corners with smaller portions, less attrsctive specials, and that staff morale will decline with lower patronage and gratuities. eroding their popularity. We'll see what happens.

I suppose from the sign of the scales one can

imagine it to be a characteristic of Libras to be always seeking equilibrium and some kind of metaphysical harmony. One might also suppose Libras don't respond very well too tumultuous episodes. Superficially, we might maintain the same disposition, but in fact we're being stretched in uncomfortable ways.

This recent medical crisis for Janett coincided with the much anticipated completion of my temp assignment and the begining of my bookkeeping venture. I'm probably not handling either of these situations as well as I'd like to, but I think we're getting through.

I'll post more later.

Bracing

Her's a link to an article by WSJ writer, Peggy Noonan. Not too ambitious a piece of writing, but pretty sound, which refers to peoples' faith as they consider their futures.

Things are much better

Janett is well.

She left the hospital yesterday for a little more recuperation time to be spent at the home of Kim and Ross in Lombard. Steffie brought Mark and Owen here yesterday and gave our place a thorough tidying, so when Janett's a couple days stronger she'll be able to be comfortable here.

I'm going to be busy today, so this is just a short note, but I want to express my respect and appreciation for Kim, Ross, Steffie, Mark, Noah, Lauren, Jason and Dee for their loving devotion to Janett in a difficult time. Also, I want to say that Janett demonstrated qualities of courage, dignity, and gratitude that we might have observed in my mother, but in few others over the years.

I'll leave it to Steffie to thank Crystal and Sarah, but I should mention our appreciation of the kindnesses of Carrie and Bill, and Louie, and Jose and Mel.
And a shout out to daughter Val, our brothers, John, and Sally Miller, Si's wife for their concern and prayers.

Ooops, that reminds me. I have some calls to make.

Love

PS. I should also express our gratitude to Dr Wallace, Janett's surgeon and to the many devoted caregivers at St Alexius. They were all extremely competent, thoughtful, and kind. We recognize how special they all were and know that reflects on the administative staff as well.

Boy, oh boy, oh boy

It's Saturday night, Janett's birthday, but no Red Lobster tonight. Janett's still in the ICU.

Tuesday night they performed a scan and were able to identify the source of the bleeding. Wednesday in the morning they tried to stop the bleeding by entering a catheter to her groin and approaching the bleeding spot to insert a coil in the artery. The bleeding spot couldn't be reached, and the bleeding continued. Janett had been receiving transfusions, but was growing weaker, and the doctors were getting nervous. Wednesday afternoon they performed laproscopic surgery, found a bleeding ulcer, and resectioned Janett's colon removing the portion where the ulcer was located; a similar procedure to that which Janett had undergone 18 months ago, but much higher on her colon. The surgeon knew that in leaving a large portion of the colon in place between the two resections he was taking a risk that blood flow to that central portion might have been diminished, and that portion might not be viable.

Sure enough, Janett's white blood cell count rose on Thursday, and Janett was scheduled for surgery again on Friday. Between the anesthesia hangover from Wednesday, the pain medication, and the valium Janett was uncommunicative on Thursday, and not much better on Friday as we waited till 8 PM for her second surgery. At 11 PM the surgeon told us he'd had to remove the large central portion but was able to stretch the upper colon far enough to complete a resection. So that brings us to today.

I slept in Janett's room last night. Kim came over this morning and sent me home, I tried to nap, but not successfuly, talked to Louie on the phone, sent out emails, gathered up some laundry and took it in to be done. I went back to the hospital and Steff and Jason were there with Kim and Janett. Janett had revived somewhat and told me that her nurse had brought her a grape popsycle, which she appreciated immensely. I feel the greatest appreciation for our children who stayed with Janett through this week, caring for her with great sensitivity and sympathy, but also with attention to details and insuring contradictions between all the involved physicians and staff were resolved beneficially to Janett. They sent me home again so here I am.

Saint Alexius

is where I've been spending my time lately. I said Janett was feeling better and she was. Not eating for three days may have had something to do with her feeling better, but she felt enough better that we went to see Jase and Dee Sunday afternoon for a little visit. Sunday evening she began to have a problem with some serious bleeding. A call to her GP's office resulted in a call back from a doctor in his office who said she could stay home until she decided it was getting worse rather than better. Janett woke me at 3:30 Monday morning and said we had better go to the hospital.

So Monday was a long day. After spending the morning in a nice examination room
she was admitted and moved to a temporary room. Kim and Steffy were there most of the day. Jase came for a visit, and the bleeding slowed. She was moved to a "permanent" room at supper time and got to eat a clear liquid dinner. The staff GI doctor thought she might go home this morning, but a staff surgeon wasn't so sure she wouldn't need a colonoscopy, and who knew what else. Since the GI was the attending physician we were kind of optimistic.

She had a lady roommate in her new room, so I couldn't spend the night with her. It would have been difficult for Steff or Kim to stay and Janett said she thought she'd be alright overnight. So we all left her at or soon after 8 PM. Things didn't go as well as we'd hoped. This morning she began to feel stressed and kind of agorophobic, and asked her nurse for help, either some sedative or a less public room, perhaps further from the nursing station. The nurse who was a nice enough person explsined why Janett's proposed solutions were impractical, and not within her authority to implement. Well, when Janett is getting stressed, telling her no solutions are available is the wrong approach. She decided she was leaving the hospital even though she felt weak and still not very well. She called me at 8:15 to tell me to come pick her up.

When I got to the hospital, I risked Janett's ire by suggesting she stay to talk to the doctor since she hadn't entirely stopped bleeding. Kim and Steffo arrived and Janett was given a litle valium and gradually felt cared for enough that she said she would stay to see a doctor. Her surgeon came to see her. He asked why we thought diverticulitis had been causing her symptoms. That kind of shook me. What else would it be, I thought. Colon cancer came to mind. He said that he had neither a cat scan or colonoscopy to insure that diverticulitis was the cause, and would need some tests in the next few days to determine that.

I came home at 3 PM to get my car out of the shop (a flat tire and two bent/broken aluminum rims, thank you very much) and clean up. Steff called to say Mom was doing well and liked the night staff and would be OK, so she wanted me to stay home and get a good night's rest. She put Janett on the phone and I told Janett I had to run to the office tomorrow morning for a few hours, and would be back to the hospital at lunch time. Janett was fine with that, so I made a sandwich and coffee and turned on the news.

Now it's 8:30 and I'm ready for bed. Mark just called and told me that Janett is still bleeding and the staff GI is concerned and acted a little distressed that he hadn't been told. Mark says that doctor said that he wanted a transfusion started, some procedures performed immediately (which procedures wasn't clear from our conversation) and wanted Janett moved to intensive care. Mark said he and Steffy, having the boys to care for, were leaving but that Kim was going to spend the night. So I guess I'll run back over there.

25 Things

Kim tagged me. I'm not crazy about these kind of lists. Partly because Kim's lists are so interesting, and I feel not very interesting.

Rules: Once you’ve been tagged, you are supposed to write a Note with 25 random things, facts, habits, or goals about you. At the end, choose people to be tagged. You have to tag the person who tagged you. If I tagged you, it’s because I want to know more about you.

1. I've drunk coffee (au latte) in St Marks Square on a rainy day, and there was white linen on the little table.

2. My favorite author is John LaCarre, and I miss George Smiley.

3. I was born on the first anniversary on my mother's sister's death, and that made me very special to her, though she never mentioned it to me.

4. My yearning to be truthful is more intellectual than moral.

5. I visited the Brontes' thatch roofed home, but it wasn't my idea.

6. I went to a Bob Dylan concert in 1964. Jefferson Airplane in '66. Wore sports jackets to both. Saw jerry Lee Lewis and The Isely Brothers at ND. That was about it for me and concerts.

7. My father bought me a uniform for my eighth grade basketball team because the coach told him I could be on the team but there weren't enough uniforms.

8. My father took me to Taylor Street to buy me a sailors uniform when I joined the Sea Scouts.

9. I am the fouth child of nine and lived in my own little world. I read the Burgess animal stories and Nancy Drew mysteries.

10. I've never held the same job for more than three years.

11. My wife Janett has more dignity in a little finger than I will ever posess.

12.I scored in the 99th percentile on the english portion GSBAT anrd the 77th percentile for math even though I failed algebra 2 out of 3 semesters I took it.
The business school interviewer thought I was an anomaly.

13. I passed the CPA exam on my first try with 4 75's. I never met anyone else who did that.

14. I don't drink at home, but usually get drunk when I go to a bar.

15. I love history, but don't read books since I discovered the internet. Useed to read things like Kenneth Roberts and Thomas Costain.

16. I'm a student of foreign affairs and have a strong antipathy for the state of Israel.

17. I think there was a generational shift between my sister Betsy and myself though she's only two years older than me.

18. My brother Tim has a double colic and should have been a Cardinal. Irish folk lore.

19 My sister Dean is a very dear person, and I made her cry a few times. I've never been very good with girls, but they like me.

20. I was a history major in college and had to type papers before they made PC's or word processing software.

21. I identify in my imagination with the IRA man of the 20's, gun in one pocket, rosary in he other.

22. My mother welcomed Hungarian, Cuban, and Nigerian refugees into our home when I was young, and they all loved her.

23. My father liked G K Chesterton, and as a young man collected stamps.

24. My sons and daughters sre completely unique from me but are at the same time part of me.

25. I could have been lost so many ways except for the lovely people who held on to me.

Or maybe I'll buy calls on this one

"TCF did not engage in the activities that have created so many problems in the financial industry,” said William A. Cooper, Chairman and CEO.

“TCF has not made subprime, broker purchased, Option ARM, teaser rate, out of market, low doc or other risky mortgage loans. TCF kept on its balance sheet all the loans it originated. TCF has no auto or credit card portfolios or asset backed commercial paper. We have never owned Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac preferreds, trust preferred securities or bank owned life insurance (BOLI). TCF does not have any derivative contracts. Higher charge-offs at TCF have been primarily due to the imprudent behavior of our competitors and an ill-advised monetary policy that created the unprecedented rise and fall of the housing markets. TCF remains profitable, solidly capitalized and ready to take advantage of prudent growth opportunities. TCF declared a $0.25 quarterly dividend payable to stockholders on February 27, 2009. We expect to continue our dividend in future periods subject to maintaining solid profits and strong capital.

"In accordance with our compensation programs, TCF Executive Management received no bonuses for 2008. As Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, I receive neither a salary nor a bonus."

Clear blue sky this morning,

which at this time of year generally means it's cold out.

Janet's feeling a little better, thanks for asking.

Do you have the free cell solitaire game on your computer? I think it's possible to win this game every time you play. Well. I like winning so I play it often, and I've noticed some days I do better than others, which I''ve begun to think of as an indicator of my mental state on the various days. Am I insightful, imaginative and resourceful, or unfocused, plodding and stupid? This morning I resigned 4 consecutive games within 10 moves of starting. Not a good sign.

This has implications for other interests, but today I'm thinking about the market, and particularly gold stocks. Tim Knight listed about ten stocks he considers to be candidates for put buying (bearish). I think I've explained before when you buy a put, you buy the option of selling the stock to the person who sold the put at a specified price at some designated point in the future. Seven of those bearish candidates are gold mining companies.

When I first started posting I think gold was around 400 and I said I thought it would go to 1000, which it did, then fell back to 750 and is now moving up again, currently near 900. I am a gold bug, my thinking being that gold has always been store of value. The supply is fairly constant and limited. When governments devalue their currencies, the price of gold in those currencies rises.

By increasing money supplies far in excess of the increase in real gowth in the economies, governments have seriously devalued their currencies. Through political and financial shenanigans, the governments (particularly the US in the previous 20 years) had supressed the proportionate rise in the price of gold. Some remediation has occurred in recent years, but gold is still underpriced relative to the deterioraion of the value (purchasing power) of the currencies.

In the face of a serious recession, and probable depression governments are spending money they don't have to try to maintain economic activity. Some money they borrow, some they just print up, implying further monetary devaluation, and the likelihood investors will switch holdings from financial instruments including cash into gold to preserve their wealth, and drive the gold price up to 2,000 or 3,000 dollars per ounce.

The recent 20% price rise from $750 to $900 has caused gold mining company share prices to double in the last four months. Now, Tim K doesn't provide economic analysis or much commentary, just the charts, whch appear to him to show excessive upward movement. Given uncertainty about other equities, now trading midway between their lows of November and a 23% retracement level, uncertainty as to whether they'll rally then fall, or fall then rally, the relatively high flying gold stock appear tempting to him.

I have some questions as to how directly a rise in the price of gold translates to profits for the mining companies, but I have more serious questions about how gold fares in a deflationary cycle, when prices for commodities are falling. Tim was right about the oil companies and he was right about the agrichemical businesses (potash). Maybe he's right about the gold mining companies too.

I'll go play free cell again, and if I win a couple, I'll decide what to do about gold stocks. Maybe I'll just buy puts on Darden, The Red Lobster-Olive Garden business.

Janett's not feeling well.

In fact she's feeling very bad. Diverticulitis symptoms again. She's going to go on a fast so I stopped on the way home and bought ginger ale and popcycles, orange pop and strawberry jello, apple juice and cream of wheat, and mozzarella stuffed pretzels for when she can no longer take not having something to bite and chew.

She's afraid to call her very nice doctor for antibiotics because she just had an episode with this condition 3 weeks ago and he may pressure her to undergo surgery to remove another section of her intestines.

Poor little angel.

Is dementia setting in?

I've started saving my McDonalds coffee cups. Janett buys a kind of dixie cup with a lid for my coffee in the car, but they're kind of papery. The McDonalds cups are sturdier, and have better insulating qualities. That occurred to me when I got a cup at the McDonalds near work and wasn't able to take a real gulp until I was near home 45 minutes later.
I've brought four cups home, rinsed them out and left them on the drain board. They clean up nicely and easily. I suspect Janett will throw them away. I don't know how to explain to her that they're of value. I'm thinking of tucking them away in the extra closet where we stash overflow from the kitchen.
Am I losing it?

I haven't done anything in the market lately. I've been busy with other stuff, and this kind of churning market can lose you money, down 400 one day, up 370 the next.
Some day traders (one of which I am not)are probably doing OK, some are probably getting chewed up.
I was going to do something Tuesday night, buy Dryship puts. I made money when it went from 4 to 10, and got out. It dropped a little then climbed up to where I was thinking of selling at around 17. I couldn't get my chart program to boot, so I put off doing anything, now it's back down just over 10. Could still drop back to 5, but if I get Incredible Charts working I'll look around a little bit.

As if you didn't already have enough to worry about,

let me share some thoughts I had yesterday. Thinking about how Obama could use the good will, faith, and hope of the American people to help us out of this economic down turn, I really couldn't think of much.

It has to do with our being a service economy. Aside from car manufacturing and home building we don't really manufacture much, and we've come to accept that both those industries rely on consumer credit being avalable. Credit is not available, and I don't think recent experience indicates that the government can make credit available through the banking system.

I think the banks are still in serious trouble. After the mortgage melt down, I've suggesed there would be a consumer credit melt down; credit cards, auto loans, student loans all would be going into default. This is apparently happening. And, just as the banks quit making mortgage loans last year, now they'e trying not to make consumer loans, scaling back credit limits and requiring higher payments on open balances.

I've said the last shoe to drop will be commercial credit: corporate borrowing. Well, thats going to be occurring soon. Retailers will be closing down quickly now, and the money borrowed to buld all those malls won't be being paid back. Retail staffs will join the building trades and auto manufacturers and suppliers in the unemployment lines, and restaurant personnell won't be far behind. Demand for consumer goods will continue to shrink, and people won't have money to require much by way of financial services.

Traditionally, declines in the cost of labor and materials during a recession led to lower prices which gradually led to an increase in demand, and a resumption of economic activity. Without credit availability I don't see how demand can be generated, and even a small resurgence in the demand for consumer products will benefit marginally the low cost producers abroad and not the American economy.

Oooops, the pizza's here. Time to eat. Suggestions welcome on the economy thing.


PS After dinner note. I didn't mention state and local governments defaulting on debts and filing bankruptcies. Some of that will happen and be another blow to financial institutions, especially pension funds and insurance companies. Presumably the federal government will step in to enable local governments to continue to provide services (and jobs) during the bad times to come.

At dinner, Janett and I discussed the possibility of New Deal type programs, like a federal loan agency, by-passing or at least threatening to by-pass, the recalcitrant banks. When last week Bank of America and Citibank got back in the dole line, people began to realize that bail out's are an ongoing process not a one time thing. Perhaps there will be popular support for stopping the bail outs, allowing the banks to fold and finding an alternative credit mechanism. The republican minority would try to portray such a gambit as another indication of Obama's socialist tendencies - the first being his anticipated efforts at health care reform. It'll probably have to get much worse before he's ready initiate such a plan. But, hey, it's much worse already. Folks just don't know it yet.
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We really didn't miss much

Stocks came off that 23.6 resistance line, but we're still trading in the same range we've been in for 6 weeks. Maybe we could have made some money, given our bearish instincts but it's not as though we missed something really important.