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Friday, February 20, 2009

the market

What with all that's been happening, I haven't mentioned my last trade. As I've said before I try not to do anything in the market when Janett's unwell because my judgement and focus may be impaired. I entered an order to buy a Darden put the Saturday night before Janett and I went to the hospital.
The stock price was around 26.25 so I bought a put at 25. In the following weeks the stock price rose to 29.60 - whoops! But that was the same price at which a recent high was reached and the stock fell away from that high before my purchase, so I hoped it would be a price the stock would not surpass. Sure enough the price declined in the last several days back to 27.20 The issue is still in doubt.
I didn't have a good technical reason for going short at that point, except that the stock price had doubled in the last couple months, and that I hoped the 29.60 price would resist penetration and protect me on the upside.
My reason for "shorting" the stock was that in the bad economy sales volume would fall and the company has borrowed a LOT of money short term to finance expansion. I was motivated by the prospect that the stock could give back much of it's gains from the $14 low on November 20. Second guessing myself, I think institutional investors feel the company's restaurants (Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Bahama Breeze) have "brand identity" that will maintain their customer base even in tough times. Also, I think the company has a good PR team promoting this attitude. On the contrary, I think the restaurants will start to cut corners with smaller portions, less attrsctive specials, and that staff morale will decline with lower patronage and gratuities. eroding their popularity. We'll see what happens.

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