Don't want to spoil your week-end

and I said I wouldn't say I told you so but this article caught my eye.

Here's the first couple of paragraphs..."Will your pension take part of the $1 trillion hit from the subprime meltdown?
Posted Nov 29th 2007 8:49PM by Peter Cohan

The Associated Press reports that local Florida governments have been withdrawing assets from its state pension fund at an astonishingly rapid clip. Specifically, in the last two weeks local Florida governments have withdrawn 40% -- or nearly $10 billion -- from the state pension pool. At this rate, the fund would have been 100% depleted by the end of 2007. So The State Board of Administration held an emergency meeting to halt further withdrawals.

If you think about this for a minute, you'll realize that this is pretty much the same thing that happened during the Great Depression when people withdrew their money from banks because they were afraid of losing their savings. In response, the government declared bank holidays. That is, the government told them that they could not get their hands on their money.

What -- you might ask -- is the reason that Florida local governments were so eager to get their hands on that pension money? Florida invested in some mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) -- which were downgraded by credit rating agencies to the point where they were below the standards permitted for a pension fund. Specifically, $700 million in asset-backed commercial paper was downgraded below "purchase credit rating guidelines."
---

So the state pension fund has to sell $700 million worth of this junk. What do you think they'll get? Maybe twenty-five cents back on the dollar? Does that mean three quarter of the retirees dont get their pensions, or every one gets a quarter of what they were planning on? On the bright side the $700 million was only a small fraction of their total holdings. On the not so bright side, the rest of the stuff they're holding is probably just as bad. Remember, people are just starting to default on their mortgages.

And we still have funds holding all those corporate junk bonds which financed all those overpriced buy-outs of the last 10 years. That money's not going to be paid back.

And just like anybody could borrow money to buy a house, even dogs and kids could get credit cards. Car loans? Didn't we talk about how everybody is upside down on their car loans. Consumer debt default will sky-rocket in the next couple years. And, yes, the bankers, credit card companies and car loan companies were bundling those loans up to and selling them to the pension funds and insurance companies just like the mortgages.

And of course the sad part is that the schemers will take their billions and retire somewhere they don't have to deal with the unpleasant consequences of the fraud they perpetrated. I would say it's the innocent who will pay the price, but they weren't innocent of being stupid, and people who elect Clintons and Bushes aren't stupid by accident, they work at it. Think they'll be able to sue? Not a chance, Bush's "conservative" Supreme Court isn't conservative when it comes to overturning Roe v Wade, or protectiong constitutional civil liberties, but they're damn conservative about letting poor people sue rich people. I'm not making it up - check it out.


There's more there if you want to read about it.

TG@D&J's

It's days later and I'm still full. Ooops, that was a usage Mommo never allowed, and we never described anyone as "rich", "comfortable" was barely acceptable.) Well, I've been comfortable for a couple of days now.

Home-made every thing from olives to wine. My personal favorite: eggplant antipasto, but the fried artichoke hearts were right up there. Anybody got the recipes? A person of any appetite would have filled up on the antipasto - like I did. And the pasta was a delicious lasagna. Were we done? No, just getting started. Ham and turkey, yumm. A corn,bean,pea vegge dish, mashed potatoes and green beans (with litttle pine nuts). For the nut course, roasted chestnuts and a pistachio faux gelato with cool whip, lemon and lime juice, pistachios and little pineapple chunks. That had to be desert for me. I couldn't face the pastries.

PS watchout for Tomasso's homemeade wine.

PPS Oh and the folks there were very nice also.

Flight Tracking

When schools are looking for coaches, some enterprising sleuth/fans track the flights of the schools corporate jets. This could be good for Michigan (the skunkbears), bad for Iowa.

"Mgoblog is reporting that a private jet left Willow Run airport (where all the private UM jets fly) to Cedar Rapids, Iowa. It was there for exactly 15 minutes, and then turned around, and should be landing back at Willow Run shortly.

Hmmmmmmm. It looks and smells like Ferentz for the Skunks."

Courtesy of BigEND at Rock's House.
Not so fast my friend, says SteelHop at Cartier Field:

"UM in almost any case can't hire Ferentz b/c it violates the Big Tens unspoken rule against hiring a coach at equal levels to fill an open position. UM can hire a DC or OC to do it but the intent of the rule is to stop what is exactly what is being rumored stealing a coach from a program that can't pay as much. Unless Delevany breaks the rule, and thus, admitting the conference is the Big Two in reality - this is rumor of equal to PFT.

I won't argue it can't happen but there would have to be a lot of explaining about how the Big Ten is no different than the ACC (O'Brien) or SEC (Tuberville) when it comes to athletics. Do you think Delaney wants to do that?"

Whadyallthink? And whateve happened to that other guy: what was his name? Oh yeah, Les Miles

Aaahhh, that's better

I did something yesterday that had been on my mind for a month. I had to write to someone, but didnt know what was the right thing to say. I can't say it worked out well, but at least it's done. That undone thing had kept me from posting because every time I sat down to post I was preoccupied with not having written that person yet, and that thought drove other conversational ideas out of my mind.

And I've had a lot to talk about. Kim and Ross getting engaged, Thanksgiving at Dee and Jason's, Orla Hopp's passing and how involved we've been over the years with her family.

Orla Fitzsimmon's family came to Dundee during the 1920's and she was born in the house closest to route 31 on the south side of route 72. The house is still there with a candy store on the first floor. I guess the historic district won't let them tear it down. She was married to a postman whose family, the Hopps, has been here practically forever. They had three children, two sons and a daughter. One of her sons passed away several years ago. The daughter had children who were in elementary school with our own children. Janett first got to know Carrie at Brownie camp-outs and other events twenty years ago, and observed that Carrie was doing most of the work while the other mothers were planning, administering, and otherwise enjoying one another's company while engaged in non-productive pursuits. They became friends and shared many ups and downs over the years.

Carrie's oldest daughter, Crystal, became the closest of friends with both of our daughters, and they too shared all the ups and downs of childhood and adolescence. I'm not sure if Carrie's kids introduced our kids to Willow Creek Church, but I think so, and they certainly supported their regular attendance with rides and encouragement. Along with a loving family, Willow has been the the most positive influence in our childrens' lives.

Carrie's husband, Bill is a big-hearted galoot. He was running a small family business when I got to know him, and started helping him with some tax filings. I was worried about his heart and his back and encouraged him to accept a position with a large competitor for the security, the benefits, and the reduced workload. I don't know if he ever regrets giving up the rewards of ownership, but if he does he never let's on, and always greets me with "Hey, Andy, I love you, man" One time I was out of work for a while and behind in my bills and got my gas shut off. I don't know how he found out, but he was over to the house within hours saying "They can't do that." and going to the currency exchange to get service restored the same day.

Now Crystal has three beautiful little ones, and shares so much with Stephanie. It was Carrie's second daughter, Corrie, who steered Kim toward her job at Verizon, which is working out so well.

I'm hurrying now because our oldest son, Jase, is here and I should be getting ready for the wake, but speaking of Jason, he used to drop by their home and have coffee with Orla on his way to or from work before he moved out of town. That was ten years ago and her health was starting to fail then. Jason was very considerate of her, and she appreciated his friendhip. That's the way it's been for us with Orla and her family.

Well, got to go.

For the students of foreign affairs among us,

another article on the Indo-Sino rapproachment. Item to ponder, the Chinese have traditionally given measured support to the Pakistanis, as the Russians have done with the Indians. One effect of this cozying up twixt the Chinese and Indians is to make Pakistan the odd man out on the sub-continent. How does this make the Pakistani military feel about Musharraf and his sell-out to the Bush-Cheney gang of two?

I haven't posted on economic/market matters for a couple of months because I think I already spun out the scenarion which is now occurring, and I'm not one to say "I TOLD YOU SO."

Ok, a little history trivia

Bobbie Kennedy was at Notre Dame the day Martin Luther King was killed.

Sorry

not to be posting. I don't know if works a bitch, or the commutes a bitch, or I'm suffering from a post equinox emotional malady.

Here's a timely joke from the Other Guy at Rock's House:

I was feeling depressed following the Navy game, so I called the Help Hotline.

I was put through to a 'call center' in Pakistan .

I explained that I was feeling suicidal.

They were very excited at this news and wanted to know if I could drive a truck or fly an airplane...

This is the kind of harvest

that Bush's adventurism is south Asia will reap in the coming decades. "Let's go get them dirty Taliban" sounded pretty good to a lot of Americans in October of 2001, and the oil companies (IE VP Cheney) were happy to secure the right of way for a pipeline from the Caspian Sea. Problem is statesmen are supposed to be wise, deliberate and measured in their initiatives as opposed to say stupid, opportunistic, and acquisitive. Our military presence in south Asia will have more perilous consequences than the suicide bombers we've stirred up in the middle-east.

Here's a piece from an article which discusses important strategic shifts which are alarming as they were foreseeable. Most Americans don't have the time or the energy to concern themselves with such matters, which makes it all the more important that we elect leaders who exercise foresight and good judgement. Right now the two imperatives for American foreign policy is do whatever the oil companies and the Israelis want us to do, cause that's how you win elections.

The India-China-Russia Troika: Is It Possible?
Dr Suvrokamal Dutta
26 October 2007, Friday


With the historic India-Russia ties based on solid foundation, the emergence of warmer ties with China means a lot for this region. Already China and Russia have resolved their age-old border disputes amicably. Sino-Russian trade is quite robust and is increasing steadily. In the year 2003-04, the annual trade between China and Russia was to the tune of USD 5 billion which is a healthy figure on any country’s trade account. India’s defence and military - related trade being maximum with Russia (Russia accounts for 70 percent of India’s defence-related purchases) greater co-operation between the three countries will assume greater significance in future, if it really works out.

Russia’s inability to impede the eastward expansion of NATO and its frustration with NATO’s unilateral military action in Kosovo has forced it to seek closer strategic understanding with China and India. Yevgeny Primakov of Russia was the first person to talk about a "strategic triangle" involving Russia, China and India. India may still need time to decide if it should be one of the vertices of the triangle but such a decision cannot be ruled out .It is a fact that each of these States is involved in somewhat similar dynamics. Each is consolidating its relationship with the other, while simultaneously expanding its relations with the United States. In terms of strategic payoffs, this partnership will yield them, at least enhanced benefits arising from bilateral and trilateral co-operation and serve to neutralize US influence in the Asia-Pacific Region, at the most. This potential partnership could be a blueprint for the next Cold War and poses a threat that could affect the lives of everyone in the United States in a significant way and the United States of America is quite itchy about the unfolding tri-lateral ties.

During President Putin’s visit in December 2003, a multi-billion dollar defence deal was signed. Under the deal, Russia would supply IL-78 flight refuelling air-craft, aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov and IL-78 FRAs to India. Russia would also sell MiG-29K fighter aircraft for the aircraft carrier besides submarines and frigates. Submarines and frigates would also be jointly produced by the two countries. With such warm ties obtaining, the emergence of the said troika can-not be ruled out.

During his recent visit to Moscow, the External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee had a detailed discussion with the Russian officials about many bilateral and strategic issues, including the Turkimenistan oil pipeline issue and the Indo-US nuclear deal. The response of the Russian side was quite positive to both the issues. It included an assurance from Russia of all help to India in the IAEA and the NSG.

A trilateral meeting of the Heads of the three countries on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly Session in 2003 raised a lot of heartburn among several western countries, including the United States. The then External Affairs Minister of India brushed it aside as nothing but assumptions. He said the meeting discussed global issues and cross-border terrorism confronting the three countries. The clarification was furnished during the question hour while replying to the supplementaries. The minister said, “This kind of meeting took 14 years to take place and no country was mentioned by name during the informal meeting, though the issue of terrorism in general figured in the discussions.” He further said, “Otherwise, it would have given the impression that we (India, Russia and China) are forming a group.” The Minister had also said then: “The Foreign Ministers of India, Russia and China agreed to meet in-formally in the same format and in this informal meeting we did not bring up bilateral issues and only trilateral issues were discussed .The meeting also discussed globalization.”

The Minister’s indirect acknowledgement of the discussion of trilateral issues and issues of global concern reflects this unfolding axis amongst the trio. China and Russia are co-operating on establishing railway links and on the issue concerning the oil pipeline through Central Asia, connecting the Caspian Sea with the Middle East and Europe. Russia has also shown keen interest in the pipeline issue involving India, Iran and Central Asia .Chances of the three countries joining hands on such common issues in future cannot be ruled out. American presence in Central Asia, Afghanistan and in the former Soviet Republics like Georgia, Ukraine, etc has hastened the process. The way things are unfolding in Central Asia, the official acknowledgement of a troika taking shape or the official constitution of such a troika in the near future cannot be ruled out. Such a troika is also required for the region in the context of its strategic and economic location.

Involvement and the special interest shown by the western powers, specially the United States of America after the advent of the WTO and the globalization that the region has witnessed, render the formation of such a power grouping all the more vital as this can neutralize the power domination by the West and the USA. This will rid the region of any kind of American domination which is of vital importance for the healthy, overall development and security of Asia. Any outside presence in the area is not in its interest.

(emphasis added)

PS

Incidentally, if you try to breakdown the globe into two camps, you'll find our camp is getting smaller with each passing decade. The rapproachment of India with China is troubling, but China ia also making significant inroads into the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. For now we can count on the grudging support of Europe and Japan, but these allies will necessarily hedge their bets making whatever accomodations are necessary with Russia and China as we isolate ourselves further from the world community.

These realignments would be hastened by an attack on Iran as we would demonstrate that we're incapable of learning from our mistakes, and bent on unleashing violence on who-so-ever Israel determines is a threat to their fascist state. I've always decried our support for the Israeli aggressors as brutish and immoral: it's also prohibitively costly as we'll soon learn.

Where else

could you hope to see Dwight Shute attack Jerome Bettis? I know what keeps you coming back.

Mixed Emotions

One ND Fan posted this over at Her Loyal Sons to express his feelings about Notre Dame losing to USC 38 to nothing then getting verbal commitments from two top prospects for next year, including Michael Floyd, the receiver fans have been excited about as a prospect for the last year

Cloudy Monday but nice Sunday

We had a great time at Malachy and Madison's dual birthday party yesterday. A nice, pretty large group of grown ups and little ones - three generations of a couple families. It was a beautiful day and the kids got to run around a lot. Janett made mostacioli and Sandy baked three cakes. Two of them were four layer jobbies. I was impressed. Crystal bought big veggie and fruit platters for appetizers. I was also impressed with how the kids went for the veggies and fruit. Very healthy. One little guy (Isaac) asked me "What's that in you hand?" when I was smoking. Never saw a cigarette before. Hmmh.
Janett as usual sacrificed herself preparing and laying out the spread,so she didn't get to socialize as much as she would have liked, and now we all have to pay the price of missing the photo's she would have snapped.
Six or seven of the dad's snuck off to the basement to watch the last quarter of the Bears game and were rewarded with a last minute win. A very good day all around.
When it was time to go, I said good-by to Malachy three times. He was so deeply involved with a Power Ranger motorcycling transformer kind of thing he was oblivious to me. Never one to be ignored I scooped him up for a hug and a kiss. He howled and crumpled to the floor when I let him go. Then he gathered himself up and sobbing for a moment he returned his attention to the new toy. The crying stopped and the rest of the world faded back into oblivion. I resisted the temptation to pick him up for another hug. He was really deep into that toy.

We have new neighbors in the upstairs apartment: a cute young mom and her cute little boy. It sounds like the only toy the little guy has is a bowling ball. Somebody ought to get him a Power Ranger motorcycling transformer kind of thing.

ND Loses again

'nuff said

I started a new temp assignment this week. It's a big company building a new plant. I'm supposed to do the capital project/fixed asset accounting. It'll be interesting.

Little Steffo suffered a set back in her effort to have another little baby last week. Sorry Steffo. I hope your faith makes it a little easier to accept the disappointment. We're all looking foreward to Malachy's birthday bash.

Because my new job is far away and outside my normal commuting range, I'm experimenting a little with routes. I tried going from 294 to 355 on 88 on the way home Friday. Boy, was that a mistake. I couldn't believe all those people put up with that traffic. People, haven't you ever heard of alternates: like Ogden, or Butterfield, or Roosevelt, or Cermak. What are you, goofy? You can tell I'm still upset. I mean I knew I must be sitting there with thousands of willfully stupid people who are going to vote for Hillary or Rudy. It was creepy.

From Portfolio Magazine's Blog

Regarding possible ouster of Sprint CEO

"Oct 5 2007 9:19AM EDT

PR Lie of the Day

A Sprint spokeswoman declined to comment. She said Mr. Forsee was traveling and couldn't be reached."

Now, that's funny.

I'm still recuperating from an over-the top week-end, but should note ND's win over UCLA. Wouldn't it be nice if we beat Boston College on Saturday? ND posters usually refer to BC as Fredo - like from the Godfather.

Birthday

Last Thursday was my birthday. Janett and I celebrated Friday night, 3 bars in 5 hours and home by midnight. Not a moment too soon. "I don't remember stopping at Arby's last night."

Friday - night went to the gambling boat (for the buffet) with former co-worker Sal, who'd been thoughtful enough to call to wake me Wednesday(?) morning with some goofy little toy singing "Happy Birthday To You" over the phone.

Saturday - Got to watch Notre Dame unveil the dynamic duo, Tate and Kamara, and Sharpley showed that us old guys still got it.

Sunday - Lou and Julie and I watched the Bears game while Kim and Janett shopped. They brought home a cake, which we took to Steffie and Mark's to share. (and I got some presents) I'd talked to Jase Sunday morning when we didn't have any plans, and he sounded uncertain about coming over, he was a little under the weather. Well, if Jase, Dee, or Joey see this, we saved you some cake. But I don't know how long Mark can withstand temptation.

My baby bouncing boy, Noah, apparently placed a higher value on a Weird Al concert in Champaign with his buddy Chad, than he did on celebrating one of a few remaining birthdays with his dear old Dad. That's OK, Noah you're still in the will, if I had one.

Very Funny,

Homer

Did anyone watch the debate?

His staff says Edwards won, and provides these quotes. I hope he connected with folks in New Hampshire, where other candidates' financial advantages won't guarantee them a win.

MSNBC Democratic Debate in New Hampshire – Reviews Are In

Salon.com’s Joan Walsh Said Edwards “Made a Strong Impression” and Named Edwards the Winner of the Debate. Chris Matthews posed the question, “Who won tonight’s debate?” and Salon.com’s Walsh responded, “I think Edwards made a strong impression and I think he pushed her [Senator Hillary Clinton] back, he brushed her back a little bit. So I would go with Edwards.” [MSNBC, 9/26/07]

NBC's Chuck Todd: “Edwards Stood Out to Me,” “It Was One of His Better Performances.” “Of the candidates chasing Clinton, Edwards stood out to me. He seemed to realize he needed to prove contrast with Clinton on just about every answer he gave. It was one of his better performances. The guy is getting his William Jennings Bryan schtick down pat.” [http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/09/26/381964.aspx, “Some Quick Post-game Take-aways,” 9/26/07]

Newsweek’s Howard Fineman: “Edwards Has Emerged So Far the Most Forceful Challenger To” Clinton. “From where I sit, Edwards has emerged so far the most forceful challenger to her (other than Tim Russert).” [http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2007/09/26/fineman-debate-live-blog.aspx, 9/26/07]

Marc Ambinder: “Victory for JRE,” “Edwards Was Straightforward, Confident, Clear.” Edwards was Edwards on Centrum Silver: straightforward, confident, clear, knowledgeable, thoroughly encased in his own frame. Ying to the yang of both Obama and Clinton; If you’re new to nomination politics, then you’d think Edwards – and not Obama – was Hillary Clinton’s main foil. The war. Social Security. Health care. Campaign ethics. Clinton didn't take the punch, but she did move to dodge them, which is a victory for JRE. [http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/09/edwards_clinton_spats_stand_ou.php, “Edwards, Clinton Spats Sound Out,” 9/26/07]

ABC’s Rick Klein: “Edwards May Have Done Himself the Most Good Tonight.” “11:02 pm: Quick thoughts -- Hillary Clinton benefits whenever no one else distinguishes himself, and Edwards may have done himself the most good tonight. Obama squeezed in one good line, but I don't see that as enough for the evening.” [http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2007/09/live-blogging-d.html, 9/26/07]

NBC's Domenico Montanaro: Edwards Was “More Presidential” and “Looked Poised.” “Edwards looked poised in following up on his answer. Not angry or frustrated as we've seen him before, more presidential.” [http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/09/26/381656.aspx, “Edwards Pointing Out Differences,” 9/26/07]

Newsweek’s Howard Fineman: “Edwards Then Hits It out of the Park,” “Wins the Round” on Social Security. “Edwards then hits it out of the park, talking about a ‘protective zone’ of income between $97,500 and $200,000. His proposals sounded carefully thought through—whether you agree with it or not—and was much more specific than what Obama had to say on the topic. Hillary is talking too much about what her ‘husband’ did; she isn't being specific enough—Edwards wins the round.” [http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2007/09/26/fineman-debate-live-blog.aspx, 9/26/07]


NBC’s Athena Jones: Edwards Gets a “Whoop” for Promising to End Health Insurance for Congress if No Universal Health Care. “A whoop here for Edwards' promise to cut off health insurance coverage for members of Congress if they don't pass health care by July 2009.”[http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/09/26/381762.aspx, “Edwards health care reaction,” 9/26/07]

ABC’s Rick Klein: “Edwards Is the First to Draw Real Distinctions About” on Iraq. “9:07 pm: I'm ready to give the Big Three credit for intellectual honesty by saying troops will have to remain in Iraq for some years. But John Edwards is the first to draw real distinctions about what to do going forward. This won't be the last time he finds a way to set himself apart.” [http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2007/09/live-blogging-d.html, 9/26/07]

NBC's Domenico Montanaro: “Edwards Is Pressing the Distinctions with Clinton.” “Edwards is pressing the distinctions with Clinton. He said they had learned different things on their war vote and said this Iran vote was indicative of that. Will it matter? Edwards clearly wants to put her on the defensive. So far, he's the only one.” [http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/09/26/381710.aspx, “Edwards Pressing,” 9/26/07]

NBC’s Chuck Todd: “Edwards Seems on His Game Tonight.” “It's VERY early but Edwards seems on his game tonight.” [http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/09/26/381655.aspx, “Edwards Came To Debate With A Plan?” 9/26/07]

ABC’s Rick Klein: “I'd Give Edwards a Slight Edge in Making His Points and Making Them Solidly.”10:05 pm: “But I'd give Edwards a slight edge in making his points and making them solidly.” [http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2007/09/live-blogging-d.html, 9/26/07]

ABC’s Rick Klein: Edwards “Distinguished” Himself. “9:33 pm: One-fourth of the way in, Edwards and Richardson have distinguished themselves. If people were looking for a new, more aggressive Obama tonight, it doesn't look like they're going to get it.” [http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2007/09/live-blogging-d.html, 9/26/07]

Chris Matthew Said Edwards Came with a “Clear Strategy” to Differentiate Himself from Hillary Clinton. Chris Matthews said, “Senator John Edwards was one who came out with a clear strategy to differentiate himself from Hillary Clinton on the issue of combat troops in Iraq and U.S. military action potentially against Iran.” [MSNBC, 9/26/07]

New Plan

Louie called yesterday and said maybe we ought to go to ND for the Michigan State game after all. So that's what we're going to do. I kind of messed up since I'd told Steff I would babysit Mally, who I love, Saturday evening and now she's scrambling to make alternative plans. Mommo's stepping up, but the pick up/drop off thing is still a little tough. Me and ND better come through with a win to make it all worth while. I'm almost tempted to ask to borrow Janett's camera, but I'd probably lose it or break it or something. Other guys post pictures from the games on their sites. Maybe I'll borrow a few to post here.

My play list is playing. I worked on it yesterday because a quarter, maybe a third of the tunes weren't playing anymore. The linked sites must have deleted the tunes. I added a few new selections. The ones I have doubts about are Gary Puckett, Jay and the Americans, and Sam Cooke. Those guys had great voices and occupy spots in my musical encyclopedia, but they just aren't as evocative as some other stuff. Of course "ecocative" is a highly subjective quality - but that's what a play list should be about, right? I found Spanish Boots of Spanish Leather and Low Spark, welcome additions.

Sad and Glad

Sad because I sold my Energy Conversion stock today. Great technology, just couldn't get costs under control. Stock's so low I probably should be buying it, but at this price someone'll buy the whole darn company and I won't get my money back.

Glad because I added to my Goldcorp Warrants with the proceeds. Up over 8% today. Not Bad.

I called Louie to see if he wanted to go to SB Saturday. I hear tickets are available cheap ($50), but he has a horse running at Hawthorne, so no go. I bet Steffie would go with me and we'd have fun big time except she works Saturdays.

Not much to say, really, about the Fed

They apparently care more about keeping the ten million dollar bonus checks coming in for their friends at Goldman Sachs than about dealing with the economic malaise that's spreading. A one half percent cut in the prime rate isn't going to help anyone facing a balooning mortgage payment, or a small businessman who's bank is cutting his line of credit because they're scared about the economy - but the stock market is up 300 points. Let's have a damn parade - right up to the front door of the fed and lynch the SOB's.

When gas is five dollars a gallon, it won't be because the Arabs dont like us, it'll be because the dollar is worth less (worthless?). And when you can't afford to throw a couple of pounds of ground beef into the grocery cart, you can console yourself that meat isn't really good for you anyway. Problem is fruits and veggies are going to be pretty pricey as well.

Meanwhile, the word out of South Bend is that practices this week have been full pads, full contact, and full speed. Apparently the lads had been working out against blocking sleds and tackling dummies to minimize the risk of injuries because we're a little short of talented players. Problem is on Saturday you don't get to play against sleds and dummies.

Some of the fans are hoping for a tussle in the tunnel before the game to get the players fired up. Michigan State would probably be willing to cooperate.

Also the legend of Thomas Bemenderfer is gaining circulation. He's a young man from Mishawauka (right next to South Bend) who didn't get an offer from ND so he accepted a scholarship from Northwestern. His freshman year Northwestern's head coach Randy Walker died, and that depressed Tom, and put him in the "life's too short" frame of mind. So, with no comittment from ND or the Irish coaches he transferred to ND. He's a serious pre-med so academics weren't a problem, but he had to ask his parents to come up with the cash which at Notre Dame is a hefty sum. His sophmore year he worked out with the team but had to sit out a year as a transfer student. This year he made the team as a walk on, got his scholarship, and played Saturday, actually opening a few holes for running backs. (an idea we hope will catch on with a few of his team-mates.) Hey, I'm not saying he should be starting ahead of the senior captain center who was snapping the ball over peoples' heads, or the highly prized sophmore guard who appeared to have been injured Saturday, but at least, get him some serious playing time. Maybe some of the other kids could learn from the example of a guy who really wants to be out there.


Thomas Bemenderfer

Ahoya in El Gin

Salsa Festa.

Are we going to the jalapeno eating contest, or just swing by tonight for some music?

I like it

Everybody should go out and buy some Corrs music stuff so they get to be on TV more.

Notre Dame v Michigan

Alot of ND fans are kind of down in the dumps right now, but remember the Irish fighting spirit and the immortal words of Captain Wildwings Kelso: "Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"

She is handsome, she is pretty,

she's the belle of Belfast City.

So many songs I'd like to link, but if I have to pick one, it's this one.

Irish fest at St Catherine's today. Noah's coming to town to meet me there. Louie has us working at a concession stand this afternoon, but I'm sure we'll find the time for a couple of beers.

Then Noah and I are going to watch the Notre Dame game at home.

Should be a nice day.

OK, here's one more.

NJDoubleDomer reporting from South Bend

It's Dawn Under the Golden Dome
by NJDoubleDomer (09/04/2007 17:51:18)


I am bouyed by the surge of optimism I find here. We are finished with post-mortem panic. Now, it's: "No, we can do this. 110,000 of them, 5,000 of us. Not so bad. Cool, calm frosh QB, ready to become a legend. Tweak the O-line here; move a defender there; go back to what we do best." I drank the Irish Kool-Aid a long time ago. It's really good for you. This is Notre Dame.


ALRIGHT. Does Penn State really have 110,000 students? Sounds like we're the Spartans at Thermopylae.

Robot Genius

That's how folks at the ND sites were describing Charlie Weis; Inspirational, Invulnerable, and Invincible. A year ago ND Fans were hoping 2006 would be a good year because they didn't have much hope for 2007. Losing the big four on offense and having a senior class of only nine scholarship players didn't bode well for 2007.
But, as frequently happens, as the 2007 season approached fans grew more hopeful and even optimisic. The sophmores and juniors might be able to step in as new starters and win a lot of games. The addition of Defensive Coord. Corwin Brown sparked hope that the defense would be so much improved that a little fall off on the offensive side of the ball wouldn't spoil the chance for a successful season.

Saturday's 33 to 3 loss to Ga Tech provided a rude awakening. Most of the criticism has been directed at the offensive line which was unable to protect Soph QB Demetrius Jones from an agressive Ga Tech rush. Some point out that Demetrious looked indecisive and a little intimidated by the rush, and failed to take advantage of the few opportunities he had. Ditto Travis Thomas, the senior running back. The question remains, as it was last year, is the offensive line incapacitated by a lack of talent or poor coaching by line coach Latina?

But now there's a new wrinkle: did Charlie Weis strategize badly? I'm not expert enough to evaluate the argument that Charlie erred in trying to adopt the West Virginia "spread option" offensive model. By playing his most mobile quarterback to neutralize Ga Tech's aggressive defense he gave up the possibility of using a quick read short passing game which might have worked better against Ga Tech.

The defense is improved, but probably became discouraged as well as fatigued as the game progressed. Another loss by a similar margin should drown the hopes of the Irish fans, but I don't think that's going to happen.

The stage is set for the emrgence of a new hero and a new legend in the person of freshman quarterback Jimmy Clausen. If the offensive line can't play better than they did on Satuday though, maybe they should leave Jimmy on the bench and play Frazier (if U Conn will let us have him back.)

John West Filmfest

1

2

3

Makes me hungry for some salmon.

I accidentally hit the Next Blog button

and went to a blog named Dog Jokes. Here's a sample

This guy sees a sign in front of a house, "Talking Dog for Sale." He rings the bell and the owner tells him the dog is in the back yard. The guy goes into the back yard and sees a mutt sitting there.

"You talk?", he asks.

"Yep", the mutt replies.

"So, what's your story?"

The mutt looks up and says "Well, I discovered this gift pretty young and I wanted to help the government, so I told the CIA about my gift, and in no time they had me jetting from country to country, sitting in rooms with spies and world leaders, because no one figured a dog would be eavesdropping. I was one of their most valuable spies eight years running. The jetting around really tired me out, and I knew I wasn't getting any younger and I wanted to settle down. So I signed up for a job at the airport to do some undercover security work, mostly wandering near suspicious characters and listening in. I uncovered some incredible dealings there and was awarded a batch of medals. Had a wife, a mess of puppies, and now I'm just retired."

The guy is amazed. He goes back in and asks the owner what he wants for the dog. The owner says "Ten dollars."

The guy says he'll buy the dog but asks the owner, "This dog is amazing. Why on earth are you selling him?"

The owner replies, "He's such a liar."

Go Hill

I took time off from ND football and the markets today to read the news, and one item caught my attention. You guessed it - Hillary's campaign funds. Some Chinese gentleman named Norman Hsu is one of Hillary's big campaign contributors. He's been identified as having been convicted in California of defrauding investors out of a million dollars. After his conviction he forgot to show up in court for sentencing and there's an outstanding warrant for his arrest. Now he lives in New York and is said to be in the garment industry. (garment industry? Imports from China maybe?)

Besides his own contributions, as a leading fund raiser ("Hill Raiser"), he supposedly collects checks from other people who he contacts for donations. I'm sure investigation will prove he was making the "bundled" contributions himself by reimbursing the check writers. One Chinese family in California have been identified as the third biggest family of contributors to Hillary's campaigns: more than $130,000 since 2005. Paw, I think his name is, is a mailman whose son is supposedly a "business associate" of Hsu's.

Tracking down all Hsu's associates making large contributions shouldn't be too hard.
and it shouildn't be too tough to review their financials to see where they got the money they contributed. Nothing like a few indictments to get people cooperating. Of course the Republican controlled Federal Elections Commission and the Attorney General's office would probably like to wait until after Hillary has the Democratic nomination to bring these matters into court, and into the headlines.

I don't hate Hillary for being a liberal or a feminist, I hate her for pretending to be those things. The Democratic Party should be the champion of the working people, the Clintons have been the champions of outsourcing. The trade deals Bill engineered could have been written in Peking (Beijing) and I suppose parts of them were.

Remember the Bhuddist Temple party in 1996? The Clinton campaign received a hundred thousand dollars from Califiornia Chinese contributors. After an investigation most of it was identified as having come from a trade agency of the Chinese communist government.

One would have thought that experience would have made the Clinton's a little suspicious of Chinese American contributors. I suppose Hillary was as shocked and disappointed then as she is today. At least in '96 they were smart enough to send Al "Inconvenient Truth" Gore to the party at the temple to pick up the money.


Oh and one other thing - She'll try to donate Hsu's contributions to charity and hope no one presses too hard on the fraudulent "bundled" donations. Why not just return the money to the donor? Because then she wouldn't get the tax write off for the charitable contribution. She's just as sleazy as her husband.

I didn't know what to post

so I posted this. Kind of different but pretty funny.

As kick off time approaches my brain starts to shut down.

Would you like to meet someone who swears a lot?

Well here he is.

I had a nice day today. Kim came by around noon, We had a nice visit. Then Mom and I went to Best Buy to buy me a new keyboard. I spilled iced tea on my old one. It was not my home-made iced tea. It was a store-bought mix with a lot of sugar and some lemon flavoring. It sure made a mess of a perfectly good key board. My first thought was "Thrift Store" for a $4 replacement. Mom seemed skeptical, so I proposed Walmart for a basic bare-bones model for $12. Mom suggested Best Buy so I lifted my target to $16. But the cheapest they had was $20 so we took it. Did you know you can pay close to $200 for a keyboard? Well, you can. The only keyboard that would be worth $200 would have to be hermetically sealed and sweet drink resistant. But the one I got has 10 extra buttons down each side. I used three of them to adjust the volume while playing Risk. I think two others are for home and mailbox when on the internet. I plan to learn and use the other fifteen as well, having spent all that money. On the downside it came with a little pad to rest your hands on while typing, which I attached. The problem being that it throws me off a little and I sometimes hit the control key instead of the shift key. As you may know, the control key can be a nuisance. When I started to type the title above I must have hit control W and boom I was out of my mailbox back to my home-page. The price of progress...

But, anyway, there at Best Buy Mom found a three disc Neil Diamond anthology which contained the excellent but hard to find stuff from 35 - 40 years ago, like Glory Road, Porcupine Pie, and You're so Sweet (Horseflies Keep Buzzin 'round Your Face). She was so happy after we got home and she listened to a couple songs she came over and hugged me because I helped her find it. Well, nothing's ever quite perfect and sure enough she observed a couple of gross-lookin' fingerprints on the striated side of one of the disks, which as it turns out makes six of the songs unavailabe for listening.

Show of hands - Who thinks the gross fingerprints were imprinted at the factory? Ok, and how many think some Best Buy customer stirring his or her chocolate milk with their fingers while playing with the discs, realized the grave consequences of their carelessness and returned the package to Best Buy, who reshrink wrapped it and put it back into inventory? OK, and who thinks the customer got out their hairdrier and put their own shrinkwrap on and returned it to the store as though it hadn't been opened. Maybe we'll never know.

Much more happened today, like

driving through West Dundee where the storm last night blew down some trees including the old fir tree at village hall where they've traditionally hung the Christmas, oh excuse me, I meant holiday, no, I meant Seasonal Lights.

walking down by the river to see how high the water level was, and

babysitting little Malachy tonight who did NOT throw any Leggo's at my head.

But I'm out of space.

A Musical Treat

8 days to footbaw. In the mean time. You guys know Johnny Cash, right? But do yo know Carl Perkins? He sang Blue Suede Shoes before Elvis did.

Edit with update: I listened to this again tonight and I really like it. Yardbirds, Blues Breakers, Cream, Blind Faith, Delaney and Bonnie - I liked Clapton where ever he showed up, but for me Derek and the Dominoes was the definitive work. For the real flavor though you have to listen to the recording because Duane Allman's slide guitar on the album was great. Duane Allman was great and I read somewhere he always paid the roadies before he paid the band.

Being There

Remember that movie with Peter Sellers? Then you can figure out why Irish fans refer to Ty Willingham as Chauncy, especially after reading this quote from his press conference today, when asked about his teams opening game against Syracuse next month-
(Posied by Ditka03 at Rock's House):

Lionel (Oh yeah, sometimes they call him Lionel too. I'm not sure, but that may be from the movie Radio. Sorry.) was asked at his press conference today if he was preparing differently for Syracuse given that the game is at the Carrier Dome. Below is his response, taken word for word:

"I think its going to be different. Anytime you’re indoors, its different. Ya know, I don’t know the drafts of the building, and really I can’t remember what the drafts of the building were, OK, and every building has one, depending on which door they open, OK, so we’ll try to figure those things out the day before. But the overall heat, we know the east is usually associated with humidity. We know that humidity is the killer, not temperature. Its humidity that makes all the difference, and that is something that is very difficult to do. Most people don’t do well breathing water. And especially if you got a lot of people. Because I’m imagining where they draw their air from is the outside, and if the outside air is humid, its got a chance."

Whaaat?

I'm posting a lot of ND stuff because, believe me, you don't want me to get started on the economy and the markets. That stuff I told you about, it's here. You don't feel anything? Good. Say a little prayer, knock on wood, and throw some salt over your shoulder. Then duck,

But the family news is all good. The extended family is planning a week-end get together in October at my sister Mary's cabin in Wisconsin. That'll be great. My nephew Bill and his lovely wife Courtney are expecting in February. Betsy gets to be a Mommo. That's so cool.

Pagan Ritual at ND

Friday Night before game at midnight

Here's what you didn't see!

Back in the day

Corwin Brown, ND's new defensive coordinator, was quite a hitter. I can't wait to see our defensive backs lay the timber to some receivers like this. Heck, it'll be a nice change if they're close enough to the receiver to be on the screen at the same time.

Thanks to FightOnforMorrisey at Rock's house for the clip

Links

I added a link to CounterPunch. I thought I already had one.

I'm not deleting my link for the Edwards campaign, I still favor him. I'm getting to like Obama better though as he takes the heat for saying he would talk to Chavez and Castro (instead of having them assassinated as the less "naive" candidates would prefer to do.) He said he wouldn't drop an atom bomb on Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden. Duh! So Hillary ripped him for taking that option "off the table". I really hate that bitch.

State and local govt's will feel pinch

From Counterpunch:

The Politics of Pain

“Pain starts to spread as state shuts its wallet…” (Los Angeles Times headline, August 3, 2007.)

“The budget standoff is forcing California to cease funding hundreds of health-and child-care providers. Some are hanging by a thread.” (Los Angeles Times subhead, August 3, 2007.)How about “The budget standoff is forcing California to cease funding highway construction, or prison construction, or subsidies for poison spray programs, or SWAT munition enhancements, or …

Nah. Stick it to the kids.

Not everyone loves Jane Austen

"Jane Austen? Why, I go so far as to say that any library is a good library that does not contain a volume by Jane Austen. Even if it contains no other book."

MARK TWAIN

In case you haven't gone there already,

here's andther Onion News report

Wow, it's Friday already

I haven't gotten around to posting about our trip to Champaign. It was great. Noah and Lauren are doing really well. Lauren likes her job taking care of wayward kids at a correctional facility. Noah finished his summer school with good grades and has a month off before school starts again. Their house is cute and comfy, and sleeps seven as we found out.
We'd been up in the air about whether to drive down and back on Monday or stay there Monday night. We were having such a nice time we couldn't tear ourselves away, until after Lauren fixed biscuits and gravy Tuesday morning. (Thanks, Lauren)
Sam and Maxie (the poochies) are doing fine. Max must remember his days as our house-guest, because he was very attentive to me. Audrie, the cat, was torn between a desire to just hide someplace til we left and the need to assert her territorial prerogatives.
Mark, Steffie, and Malachy drove down separately, and ended up spending the night too. So it was real quality family time. Noah got Mally a cute stuffed dinosaur to carry around and sleep with, and I got to go to Sonic - for a coney dog. Yummm!

I'm still here.

This one has me really upset

Who's smarter

Apple or AT&T?

From the Street.Com

It's well established that the world's most talked-about phone has lured thousands of free-spending, lust seeking customers since its introduction last month. But the financial terms of the revenue-sharing deal have been kept under wraps.

Until now, that is.

People close to the companies tell TheStreet.com that AT&T is paying Apple a bounty of between $150 and $200 per phone -- plus $9 a month per phone over the life of the typical two-year customer contract.

AT&T didn't comment, and Apple said it would have no comment.

Just to post something - dieux

Quick update - Went to church and breakfast with brother John on Sunday. Lately I've been seeing John about once a year, maybe that'll improve now that he's moving back to Illinois. Wait a second, that's about as often as I see any of my brothers.

I've been neglecting my blog responsibilities to read a lot on the markets. "He does not sleep - he waits."

Also I'm reading about Notre Dames's football future. The folks at Rock's House have the pitchforks, sickles. shillelaghs and torches in their hands and they're marching on the castle demanding the athletic director, Kevin White, be thrown to the mob. They think his negotiation of our Bowl Championship Series and our Adidas deals were badly done. They think his plan to go to a seven home, four away and one neutral game schedule will reduce the level of competetiveness of our opponents. Good teams won't come to ND to play one year if we won't play them at their home in the next year. So we'll play some patsies, have an easier schedule and get to keep the home game ticket receipts. A lot of teams do that kind of thing, but we haven't been one of them. But the item that really has them fulminating is that he keeps dropping hints that he wants to install a Jumbotron in the stadium.

Since his contract goes to 2012, the only hope is that Chicago gets the Olympics and Mayor Dailey hires him away from us.

On a lighter note, one poster felt sorry enough for White to post this.

Just to post something:

True Phone Call - A Customer
To Bank Of America
7-21-7

Bank: This is the Bank of America, can I help you?

Customer: Yes, I want to cancel my account. I don't want to do business with you any longer.

Bank: Why?

Customer: You're giving credit to illegal immigrants and I don't think it's right. I'm taking my business elsewhere.

Bank: Well, Mr. Customer, we don't want to see you do that, but we can't stop you. I'll help you close the account. What is your account number?

Customer: (gives account number)

Bank: For security purposes and for your protection,can you please give me the last four digits of your social security number?

Customer: No.

Bank: Mr. Customer, I need to verify your information, but in order to help you, I'll need verification of who you are.

Customer: Why should I give you my social security number? The reason I'm closing my account is that your bank is issuing credit cards to illegal immigrants who don't have social security numbers. You are targeting that audience and want their business. Let's say I'm an illegal immigrant and you've given me a credit card. I have a question about it and call for assistance. You wouldn't be asking me for a Social Security number, would you?

Bank: No sir, I wouldn't.

Customer: Why not?

Bank: Because you would have pressed '2' to speak in Spanish. We don't ask for that information when calling in on the Spanish line.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/immigration/bankofamerica.asp

Ommmmmm

Tonight we're watching Music and Lyrics. Last night we watched Miss Potter. Two chick flix in two nights, but I'm not complaining. I'm enjoying them. It's not my feminine side, It's equanimity. Normally, I like gangsters, cowboys and war where the bad guys get theirs, and the good guy (better?) has to pay the price to deliver what they deserve. But for now I can do without the violence.

It may have to do with my advancing years. It may have to do with a peaceful feeling that came over me Tuesday night very late while we were babysitting Malachy and I stepped out for a smoke. It was very nice out and I was pretty tired, but I felt like I pretty much understood the important stuff and that things were playing out harmoniously.

This morning I ran an errand in the Nissan, which Kim had driven last, and the Christian music station was on the radio and I didn't switch to the NPR station. Of course it helped that the first song they played was Shout to the Lord; the next was Open the Eyes of My Heart, one of Steffy's favorites.

Other nice things happened this week. So anyway I'm feeling pretty good.

Funny, I cant type into the title field of this post. So I'll just keep it short.

I'm watching a movie on Spike channel. It's named Shaolin Soccer and its really good and kind of special. I recommend it to all. I'm not sure how often it shows up on TV, but maybe you can rent it.

For you Roswell fans

Roswell theory revived by deathbed confessionFrom correspondents in Washington
July 01, 2007 12:30am
Article from: Font size: + -
Send this article: Print Email

Roswell PR officer says he saw alien bodies
UFO pieces handed around at high-level meeting
Splat!: are aliens just humans from the future?

EXACTLY 60 years ago, a light aircraft was flying over the Cascade Mountains in Washington State, at a height of around 3000m.

Suddenly, a brilliant flash of light illuminated the aircraft.

Visibility was good and as pilot Kenneth Arnold scanned the sky to find the source of the light, he saw a group of nine shiny metallic objects flying information.

He estimated their speed as being around 2600km/h - nearly three times faster than the top speed of any jet aircraft at the time.

Soon, similar reports began to come in from all over America.

This wasn't just the world's first UFO sighting, this was the birth of a phenomenon, one that still exercises an extraordinary fascination.

Military authorities issued a press release, which began: "The many rumours regarding the flying disc became a reality yesterday when the intelligence officer of the 509th Bomb Group of the Eighth Air Force, Roswell Army Air Field, was fortunate enough to gain possession of a disc."

The headlines screamed: "Flying Disc captured by Air Force".

Yet, just 24 hours later, the military changed their story and claimed the object they'd first thought was a "flying disc" was a weather balloon that had crashed on a nearby ranch.

The key witness was Major Jesse Marcel, the intelligence officer who had gone to the ranch to recover the wreckage.

He described the metal as being wafer thin but incredibly tough.

It was as light as balsa wood, but couldn't be cut or burned.

These and similar accounts of the incident have largely been dismissed by all except the most dedicated believers.

Astonishing new twist

But last week came an astonishing new twist to the Roswell mystery.

Lieutenant Walter Haut was the public relations officer at the base in 1947 and was the man who issued the original and subsequent press releases after the crash on the orders of the base commander, Colonel William Blanchard.

Haut died last year but left a sworn affidavit to be opened only after his death.

Last week, the text was released and asserts that the weather balloon claim was a cover story and that the real object had been recovered by the military and stored in a hangar.

He described seeing not just the craft, but alien bodies.

He wasn't the first Roswell witness to talk about alien bodies.

Local undertaker Glenn Dennis had long claimed that he was contacted by authorities at Roswell shortly after the crash and asked to provide a number of child-sized coffins.

When he arrived at the base, he was apparently told by a nurse (who later disappeared) that a UFO had crashed and that small humanoid extraterrestrials had been recovered.

But Haut is the only one of the original participants to claim to have seen alien bodies.

UFO pieces handed around

Haut's affidavit talks about a high-level meeting he attended with base commander Col William Blanchard and the Commander of the Eighth Army Air Force, General Roger Ramey.

Haut states that at this meeting, pieces of wreckage were handed around for participants to touch, with nobody able to identify the material.

He says the press release was issued because locals were already aware of the crash site, but in fact there had been a second crash site, where more debris from the craft had fallen.

The plan was that an announcement acknowledging the first site, which had been discovered by a farmer, would divert attention from the second and more important location.

The clean-up operation

Haut also spoke about a clean-up operation, where for months afterwards military personnel scoured both crash sites searching for all remaining pieces of debris, removing them and erasing all signs that anything unusual had occurred.

This ties in with claims made by locals that debris collected as souvenirs was seized by the military.

Haut then tells how Colonel Blanchard took him to "Building 84" - one of the hangars at Roswell - and showed him the craft itself.

He describes a metallic egg-shaped object around 3.6m-4.5m in length and around 1.8m wide.

He said he saw no windows, wings, tail, landing gear or any other feature.

Haug 'saw the alien bodies'

He saw two bodies on the floor, partially covered by a tarpaulin.

They are described in his statement as about 1.2m tall, with disproportionately large heads.

Towards the end of the affidavit, Haut concludes: "I am convinced that what I personally observed was some kind of craft and its crew from outer space".

What's particularly interesting about Walter Haut is that in the many interviews he gave before his death, he played down his role and made no such claims.

Had he been seeking publicity, he would surely have spoken about the craft and the bodies.

Did he fear ridicule, or was the affidavit a sort of deathbed confession from someone who had been part of a cover-up, but who had stayed loyal to the end?

The US government came under huge pressure on Roswell in the '90s.

In July 1994, in response to an inquiry from the General Accounting Office, the Office of the Secretary of the Air Force published a report, The Roswell Report: Fact Versus Fiction In The New Mexico Desert.

Weather balloon 'cover story'

The report concluded that the Roswell incident had been attributable to something called Project Mogul, a top secret project using high-altitude balloons to carry sensor equipment into the upper atmosphere, listening forevidence of Soviet nuclear tests.

The statements concerning a crashed weather balloon had been a cover story, they admitted, but not to hide the truth about extraterrestrials.

A second US Air Force report concluded claims bodies were recovered were generated by people having seen crash test dummies that were dropped from the balloons.

Sceptics, of course, will dismiss the testimony left by Haut.

After all, fascinating though it is, it's just a story. There's no proof.

But if nothing else, this latest revelation shows that, 60 years on, this mystery endures.

Are you calling me a liar?

Irish65domer had this response to someone who questioned the accuracy of a post:

I realize that you believe you understand what you think you read,
but I'm not sure you know that what I wrote was not what I meant.

Dudes, this is going to hurt - a lot

I think I owe it to my loyal readers to explain what is happening in the hedge fund market, and particlarly about CDO's (Collateralized Debt Obligations), and I would if I could figure it out. There is an Alice in Wonderland quality to the financial writers' explanations of these ventures. If you sat across a table from one of these guys and had him explain it to you for half an hour, you'd be more confused at the end than at the start, and he would be so embarassed at the gobbledygook he was mouthing he could conclude in no other way than to say, "At least, that's how they explained it to me."

This would be the same guy who after the Enron collapse confessed he never really understood how Enron was supposed to be making money, but the numbers they reported were really impressive. But he wouldn't make that mistake again.

And wasn't this also the guy who, after the dot-com crash, shook his head about the way a couple of kids could come up with an idea about how to make money selling something on the internet and sell stock for a hundred million dollars when all they really had was a rented office with some rented furniture. I guess we'd all just gotten carried away in the moment.

Bullshit! These guys are whores, happy to tell the public whatever the investment bankers and brokers want them to say. They trade not only their objectivity, not only their integrity, but their humanity to become a cog in the great devouring machine that is Wall Street.

The ultimate villains are, of course, the investment bankers who put together billion dollar deals, taking their hundred million off the top knowing, albeit with "plausible deniability", that these deals are bound to fail. Maybe the rest of us should pray that New York and California both fall into the ocean on the same glorious day. Because these deals won't just hurt the people who invest (largely through their pension funds), but will wreak havoc on the economy that was meant to employ and sustain us all. I suppose these guys will be so uncomfortable in the aftermath they'll have to retire with their hundreds of millions to some middle eastern country where they've been endowed with dual citizenship.

Anyway, a CDO is a massive dog's breakfast of debt; junk bonds and substandard mortgages with a few supposedly good loans stirred into the mix, and through the magic of "tranching" - which supposedly recognizes that some portions of this debt is more likely to default than the other portions, and arranges that interest paid on that least desirable debt will be higher than the interest paid on the rest - eliminates all but the most egregious of the credit risk. Sure enough up pop Mr Moody and Messrs Standard and Poor to slap AAA or Aaa ratings on this debt package. But if you read the small print you find the disclaimer that the ratings are "purely estimates" and "should not be used in making investment decisions".

The hedge fund then takes out credit insurance on the debt in case of default by the debtors. But this insurance is so cheap relative to the risk, that the only explanation possible is that the insurer is either an incredibly stupid fellow who's happy to take money today without worrying about what might happen tomorrow, or he's another investment banker who writes a clause into the deal that says he doesn't have to pay in case of fraud by the borrower or the fund manager. There'll be enough evidence of fraud in these deals to keep the insurer from paying until the issues are settled in court, which will be never.

You and I are now among the one in a (ten?) thousand Americans to know what's going on here, but it doesn't make us feel much better, does it?


I'm attaching a post from a real estate agent in Minnesota about his experiences with the housing bubble, and what he thinks is happening to the housing market and the economy.

"scooby said...
I've been selling real estate the past 7 years and have been quite successful, that is until last June. I primarily marketed a northern suburb of Minneapolis which has experienced tremendous growth in the past 10 years.

Frankly, it's over. The housing market has officially crashed. Here are some recent sold statistics for the area I market:
March thru June 15
(2004) Sold 172 units
(2005) Sold 216 units
(2006) Sold 168 units
(2007) Sold 53 units (350 active listings)

During this same timeframe only 17 new construction listings have been sold. Of these, 6 of them were bank owned. Currently, there are approx. 130 active new construction listings.

Ok, so the housing bubble has popped; what does that mean for the average person? First, we are losing the largest manufacturing industry in the U.S. You will begin to see unemployment tick up, but many of these jobs were under the table. Meaning, the skilled workers were being paid cash. These individuals will not be able to file for unemployment. The loss of these jobs will bubble up over the next 1-2 years and will surface on the bottom lines of retailers like Home Depot and Lowes.

Second, as prices fall, home equity loans will be a thing of the past. Falling home prices are the single leading factor in the bubble burst. Prices started falling well before foreclosures were an issue. My estimation is prices began to fall in early 2005. Homes prices have now retreated to 2003-04 levels. Meaning a home that sold in 2005 for $250,000 is now selling for $220,000 (as long as it’s in perfect condition). Homeowners’ getting over their heads financially is nothing new; however; the difference now is they can’t just sell their house, because they owe more than it’s worth. I turned away 20+ listings this year due to homeowners being upside down on their mortgages. As a result, they are walking away and letting the banks foreclose on them. As more and more foreclosures (up 90% from last year) hit the market home prices will continue to be pressured downward. Before it’s over (if things don’t spin totally out of control) we will see price levels equal to the year 2000…Approximately, a 20% decrease in prices.

Now, you may say, “great, I can’t sell my house for what I owe on it. I will just stay and wait for the market to turn. I have a good job and can get use to the idea of staying in my home a little longer. This problem doesn’t really affect me.” Wrong, as more and more homeowners are unable to tap into their homes equity they will no longer be buying cars, 4 wheelers, big screen t.v.’s, computers, lawn tractors, updating kitchens, roofs or siding etc. Millions and millions of homeowners will be putting off discretionary spending out of necessity. This will result in a tremendous fallout in the retail sector of our economy, which in turn, will have a direct effect on the transportation and manufacturing industries. Many jobs will be lost and many more homes foreclosed.

Finally, as the housing market crashes, so does the tax roll of state, county and local governments. These institutions have built their budgets on the back of the housing surge during the past ten years. It will not be unheard of to see local governments going bankrupt, schools shutting down, police departments with skeleton crews and social programs slashed. You will quite literally see ghost towns, large developments with empty Mcmansions, because it made more sense to walk away than pay the exorbitant property tax.

Sounds depressing doesn’t it. Well, history shows that it will be depressing. This is exactly what happened before the stock market crash that lead to the Great Depression."


Well, folks, that's about it for today. Maybe all this negativism reflects market fatigue. The market did close lower today and we were short, but it was up so much mid-day that we were down $500 before we closed up $50. Whewww, or as Mally would say "scaaary".

OK One more

Another 2006 highlight film, but this one's got that The Saints are Coming song as the soundttrack

I'll keep it short

My mandatory weekly market comment: "The market never bottoms on Friday"
I put it in quotes to show this wisdom didn't originate with me and so I'll be able to disclaim if the market is up tomorrow.

Bizzarro world

Isn't that where Superman had some adventures and everything was weird? Well, you may doubt my finanancial sense, or question my political judgement - but I have irrefutable proof now. SWITZERLAND is competing for the America's Cup.

ND Highlight Film

Check it out.

We'll really miss Quinn, Samardjzia, McKnight, Walker, Ndukwe et all. But it'll be fun watching Zibby and Lambert and Thomas and a lot of new guys.

Hedging

As always, you can skip this one and go to funner new stuff below.

I'm so confused. Gold (August)spent the week climbing off a 650 low with decent volume. The equity indexes are all up, testing their highs of a couple weeks ago, the NASDAQ100 actually closed over the recent high on Friday. I'll have to wait til tomorrow to see which way the wind blows.

I've been reading what the bankers are saying. They say they're not too concerned about the ten year rate being over 5%, that the housing downturn hasn't hurt the economy as badly as they'd though it might, and the Fed won't have to cut rates to give business a boost. They'd invested in a lot of bonds in case the rate was reduced and bonds got a little over-priced and are coming back down. Not too worry, everything's fine. But then, what would we expect them to say, and are they really that blase' about the money they lost on their bond holdings when the rates went up?

One interesting point was that commenting on the equity markets, they pointed out that large caps do better in volatile markets, and their profits are less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. Also if rising interest rates worldwide reflect economic growth, large caps which have greater exposure to foreign markets will benefit.

Remember a month or so ago I mentioned hedging. The idea is to buy and sell futures you expect to react differently to the same stimulus. In this case the idea would be to buy the Dow and sell the Russell 2000. If they both go up, the Dow should go up more. If they both go down the Dow should go down less. It would be great if the Dow went up, and the Russell went down, bur that's not likely to happen. It's even less likely that the Russell would go up and the Dow down which would be worst case.

This is where options come in. If you buy a call on the Dow (getting the right but not the obligation, to buy it in the future at a little more than today's price), it costs you some cash. If you sell a call on the Russell (giving someone else the right but not the obligation to purchase the stock from you in the future at a little more than today's price) you get some cash. The cost and the proceeds net out to reduce the cost of your speculation, and you can always hope the Dow will go up enough to make it worthwhile to exercise your option but the Russell will just go up a little, and the buyer of your call won't exercise his. Then you have a profit on your Dow contract and the proceeds of the sale is your profit on the Russell contract.

I shouldn't be so careless in my wording. Above,I talk about "us or them" exercising the option. Well, that's not really going to happen on the long or short side. The market price of the option rises or falls as the price of the underlying index rises or falls. We would plan to have closed out our options at a profit at a point of our choosing well before the expiration date.


Whew, makes my head hurt just thinking about it. But some people do it all the time, and it appears to me that you have a better chance of making money with options this way than if you just go long or short one contract. I'm not going to do it, but I'm going to keep an eye on the Dow vs. the Russell to see if it would have worked out.

Corey Mays is a Patriot now

but ND has some killer linebackers coming up



Mike Hart meet Corey Mays

And now this bit of breaking news

Oh, and in case you missed it, the Spurs won the NBA Championship. I missed it. There was a funny rerun of The Office on, and then I tried to start reading The Brothers Karamazov, and then there was a somewhat amusing rerun of Everybody Loves Raymond on, so… there ya go. The Spurs. Huh.

From the "Her Loyal Sons" blog

A Nice Man

Discussing the 60's with Janett, I spoke of a young man I'd known at Notre Dame. His name was John Garvey and he was very bright and gentle. So I googled his name and I think I found him.

He's an ordained priest of the Orthodox Church of America. Here's a sample of his writing for "Commonweal"

I suspect that another source of discomfort with the notion of evil is that it introduces us to territory we seem to have left as a society, and even as Christians. That is, we have somehow lost the idea that life really does involve a struggle for light against darkness; a series of choices between good and evil; a sense that we must ultimately choose between life and death, and that there is something that draws us toward darkness and death.

There is something that does not love humankind, and it goes deep. All religious traditions have understood this. Satan in the book of Job is part of God's court, but the way he helps out is through destruction. The Buddha is tempted by Mara, in a way not unlike the temptation of Christ in the desert. We dilute our understanding of the darkest human possibilities by reducing them to a set of psychological problems. Henri Nouwen once told me, after he read the desert fathers, that Christians should avoid importing psychological concepts into those areas of Christian thought where the traditional vocabulary served perfectly well. And the traditional vocabulary, including that used by Jesus in the Sermon on the Mount, was a lot more comfortable than most of us are with the idea of evil and hell. We have sentimentalized our understanding of God's relationship to humanity. It is curious that we should have begun doing this in such a blood-drenched century as the last one. So we try to explain the Holocaust, Hiroshima, the killing fields of Cambodia, My Lai, Jonestown, the Manson family, September 11, all without any reference to radical evil, or the power evil has to take us over, one by one, or as a society.

It goes without saying that the invocation of religion does not help us out of this dilemma, since the history of religion is so studded with evil events, done in God's name. But to deny that evil is real is to deny something we really do experience, out there--that is, in our suffering world--and in here, in our own hearts. Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn has said that the line between good and evil runs through every human heart, and it is essential for us to keep this before us every time we use the word.

He's written several books. Maybe I'll get one,

A quote I found while browsing

Being poor is picking the 10 cent ramen instead of the 12 cent ramen because that's two extra packages for every dollar.

John Scalzi , Being Poor
Whatever, 3. September 2005

Also, Mr Wizard died:

Don Herbert, Mr. Wizard: 1917-2007
From the NY Times,

Don Herbert, who unlocked the wonders of science for youngsters of the 1950s and ’60s as television’s Mr. Wizard, died yesterday at his home in the Bell Canyon section of Los Angeles. He was 89.

I guess you have to be kind of old to remember Mr Wizard. He was like a high school teacher with a class of one.

What's Up?

Just checking in so you'll know I'm OK.

We had a nice week-end with a birthday party for Noah at Lauren's folk's house. It was a lot of fun but we didn't get to visit with Sharon (Lauren's mom), 'cause she started chemo last week after her surgery last month, and was indisposed. I hope she didn't think we were goofy partying while she wasn't feeling well. I think Lauren wanted to have the party at home so we could all wish Noah a happy birthday and she could be close to her mom. We all wish Sharon a speedy and not too arduous recovery.

Got some quality Malachy time in with a trip to Lord's Park yesterday. We used to picnic there with the kids. Mally would have been happy just sliding on the slide and swinging on the swing, but we made him tour the little zoo, walk all the way around the lagoon, observe the fishies, ford the little creek and, walking back to the car, pass uncomfortably close to a large lawn mowing vehicle.

I got home and crashed, but then Steffo called to have me help persuade Malachy over the phone to eat his dinner. Instead he persuaded me to walk with him to the grocery store to buy fruit. Last time an apple, this time grapes. I love it when he eats something besides french fries and chicken mcnuggets. Steff's been working with him so now he'll eat the occasional piece of bread. Oh and he likes trail mix - or more accurately, he likes to pick the m&m's out of the trail mix. He's a libra like me and I'm trying to teach him to have ADD too.

Snapshots

That's Jason, our oldest, with his Dee and unidentified raconteur


Their little guy, Joey, with tag along cousin, Malachy

Funny or Not so Funny

Just so you know how i'm spending my time:

If you hate this stuff you can skip it. Two other newish (unrelated) posts below.

OK, it's the weekend. No trading opportunities. Time to scan the news. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey yielded higher numbers, important because consumers drive the economy. Also the Department of Labor reported "higher than expected" job creation. Also The Midwest Purchasing Managers' Composite Index, reflecting manufacturing activity, increasing "more than expected." All good indicators for the economy and therefore for the markets. The Fed's take on the news was that maybe things slowed down a little in the first quarter, but we're already rebounding. Of course I'm sceptical, but there it is.

All the index weekly charts continued upward trends. The Dow Jones Industrials June futures contract is up nearly 10% in two months. Reports are that there are a lot of short positions on the NYSE stocks. If the markets keep going up, the bulls say these shorts represent buying demand as the shorts have to be covered.

Another item. From October '81 through June '05 the 30 year bond interest rate declined from 14.68% to 4.29%. Now it's moved up again to 4.9%. The up move seems insignificant relative to the decline, but if long term rates keep rising it will be important. Rising long term rates are bad for the stock market because, at the same time, the higher rates slow consumption, reduce corporate profits, and provide a more attractive alternative to equity investments. Costs associated with baby-boom retirements will insure large and growing deficits, so long term rates should keep rising.

And a side note, trade relations with the Chinese are growing more complicated. When we insist the Chinese strengthen the yuan/renimbi to help American producers, we're asking the Chinese to reduce the worth of their dollar denominated investments - e.g. investments in treasury debt. We'll have to increase yields to maintain Chinese investment at current levels, and raise rates even further to coax additional funding from them. Hey guys, the time to time to cut the import flood was 5 or 6 years ago. (Stayed too late at the party, did we?) Remember that old joke? It's hard to remember you're there to drain the swamp when you're up to your ass in alligators.

Difficulties for markets to deal with in the coming months, but what about Monday? Will the markets be dealing with these issue or will they be reflecting the good news on job growth, consumer confidence and the purchasing managers index? More the latter I think, and the pot will be stirred with rumors of merger and acquisition activity.

So if I were to long an index future which one would it be? The Dow has been almost too strong, and I'm still suspicious that the S&P is struggling at this level. Remember the old low on the S&P was $768 and we wanted to see what happened at double that number. Well, It's Here: the S&P closed at $1536 Friday. The Russell 2000 had a good run last week, and closed trending up on Friday, whereas the NASD100 was weak at the close. Also the Russell is less than 2% over its February high. The Russell trades with less of a daily range, and is less likely to shock me with a quick movement down. The daily volume in this contract is about one third of the outstanding contracts, less than the other indexes. Sounds like more upside with less risk.

Also, I'm still long that mini gold, and that could be OK - I hope. The gold spot market is at 671. "It could go either way from here" As always, but more so. Where should I place my stop loss and where should I plan to double up? I'll ask Mr. Fibbonaci what he thinks.

Hmmm, if the major indexes are falling Monday I should be able to get out of the Russell with a minimal loss and short the S&P mini as alternative strategy. I could get whip-sawed. As they say in the old English movies "Too clever by half."

How to get to November undefeated

From OC Domer Blog

I like that second to last paragraph about what the Buckeye season ticket holders have to look foreward to.


"What the heck is going on here? Hey Buckeye Fan, do have any freaking pride at all? Here is the 2007 Football Schedule for THE Ohio State University Buckeyes, along with the earliest post-2006/pre-2007 rankings of their opponents from College Football News and Athlon Sports, respectively. Plus some commentary from OC Domer.


9/1 Youngstown State, in Columbus. Not ranked by either publication, since Y-Town is a Division I-AA program. But Y-Town is a Top 10 team in I-AA, according to these guys, who have them ranked at #4, behind Appalachian State, Montana, and North Dakota State.

9/8 Akron, in Columbus. #95/#93. Another nice home game for the faithful, who are no doubt happy to have camped out to get these tickets.

9/15 Washington, in Seattle. #54/#55. Week three and OSU still hasn't played a Top 50 team, although UW is in a BCS conference, which is nice.

9/22 Northwestern, in Columbus. #66/#75. The beginning of the Brutal Big Ten Schedule. I guess Northwestern is another team from a BCS conference, technically. Good thing it's at home though, as crowds in Evanston can be very hostile.

9/29 Minnesota, in Minneapolis. #46/#53. It's week 5, and hopefully the Buckeyes are finally prepared to go on the road, all the way to Minnesota, to face a team that is arguably, maybe in the Top 50.

10/6 Purdue, in East Lafayette. #53/#51. The gauntlet that is life in the Big Ten continues with another road game against a team that is almost Top 50 caliber.

10/13 Kent State, in Columbus. #88/#103. Is it fair to call this one a breather? A chance to recover from three intense weeks of conference play, including back-to-back road games versus near-Top-50 teams. I wish I could be there to feel the electricity in the air as the Buckeyes take the field against their in-state rivals.

10/20 Michigan State, in Columbus. #60/#77. Good job OSU to play these guys in your own house, as Irish fans know how tough they can be in East Lansing. But still, a normally respectable opponent who has fallen on hard times and who shouldn't cause a TOP 10 OSU team too much trouble.

10/27 Penn State, in Happy Valley. #24/#17. I know week 9 seems a little early to play a Top 25 team, but you're just going to have to man up and do the best you can. Hopefully by now you will have sorted out your quarterback depth chart. This is probably the first game on your schedule where it will matter who the QB is.

11/3 Wisconsin, in Columbus. #5/#9. Well, it is November. This should be a doozy of a game, if OSU can avoid the landmines littered throughout September and October.

11/10 Illinois, in Columbus. #61/#86. That's more like it.

11/17 Michigan, in Ann Arbor. #10/#8. There's nothing cute to say about this one. Always a great game, and it figures once again to loom large in the hunt for the National Championship.

No doubt Ohio State's schedule has a kick at the end, with three games against Top 25 teams in the final month. But the Buckeyes have the equivalent of eight straight scrimmages to open the season in order to get ready for the last month. Eight weeks to pick a quarterback and get him plenty of experience and confidence. Eight weeks to rest any bumps and bruises. Eight weeks to develop depth. Eight weeks to scout PSU, Wisconsin and Michigan.

For an "elite" program, the opening eight weeks of the 2007 season are an embarrassment. OSU's loyal fans get treated to home games against Y-Town, Akron, Northwestern, Kent State, and Michigan State during that stretch.

I don't normally devote space at OC Domer to calling out other programs - unless it's USC - but I have to make an exception in this case. Hey Ohio State: Your Brutal Big Ten Schedule is a joke. You ought to be ashamed of yourselves and your athletic director. And Coach Tressel's mom dresses him funny.

Man, I'm beat

I went long gold last night and I couldn't go to bed because I always put a stop loss order in when I'm long gold (an order to sell if the price falls to a certain level) and that darn Hong Kong market always drops down before it closes strong. So I stayed up til 3 AM and, sure enough, I had to lower my stop order price or I would have been stopped out, and missed a good move.

I may be crazy, but I'm not stupid.

True ( )
False ( )

Coming Up: I'm going to start posting some pictures of my wife, kids, gtandkids etc. to make my blog spot a warmer, happier place.



To start, here's a picture of Janett trying to keep me in my chair at a party.

I copied that in. I didn't know it was going to be little like that. Here's another:



Poor Janett, I kiss like a chimp.

Ethanol

What a stupid idea. Minimal beneficial effects re pollution. Maximum adverse impact on gas prices and food prices. Allows the oil companies and auto manufacturers to keep doing all the same old stuff while pricing tortillas out of the reach of the people in Mexico (and makes steak too expensive for me).

Cargill probably pays Bush/Cheyney as much as Exxon does.

Quiet Friday Night

Janett and I are at the Stangers. Mark and Steffy went to see the new Pirates movie tonight and Kim's in Chicago with Ross celebrating their "anniversary". So it's just us and Malachy, except after an evening visit to the Elgin Rec Center for a little workout/playtime Steph and Mark went to the nine o'clock showing. We didn't come over to 8:30 and Malachy was already tucked in. I've beeen fighting this impulse to bang around in the kitchen snd wake him up. I think Janett suspects I'm capable of such a nefarious act and has been keeping a pretty close eye on me.

Janett and I went to Barnes and Noble and used a couple of gift cards I'd been carrying around to buy books. Janett got one on building web pages/sites. Looked pretty technical to me but with a user friendly format. She says she understands it. She's so smart.

I got a book about futures trading for idiots. I guess the "dummies" title was already in use. I haven't looked at it yet. I've been spending the quiet time to ponder the implications of the Spanish current account deficit - Spain, Italy, Greece, (and France? or even Ireland?) going off the Euro in a couple years. Also I've been thinking about the Chinese buying into the Blackstone Group, a hedge fund. The message is they want better returns than they've been getting buying Treasuries. They might also be playing mindgames with the Treasury. Like "What do you suppose would happen if we stopped buying US Government debt and just started buying stocks instead?" It kind of threw me for a loop because if the Chinese start investing their reserves in the stock market that would inflate stock prices beyond their already inflated prices. I mean it's the same issue I've been trying to come to grips with. When are the stock markets going to return to valuation based on discounted earnings rather than reflecting excess liquidity. The answer cant be never, can it?


PS Saturday morning, and I was just thinking about how the Chinese might be as wrong about buying US stocks as the Japanese were about buying US real estate in the 80's

I have a lighter side...

And you can too

In passing

Chinese Chairman Wen Jiabao gave a talk on the Chinese economy. He said these were going well, but hinted he wasn't happy with the bubble in the Chinese stock markets. He mentioned other concerns. ""There are some problems. We face excessive liquidity, an imbalance in the balance of payments, and rapid accumulation of foreign exchange. But we are taking measures to deal with these issues," Wen said.
Translation - "Too many dollars. Too many dollars. And too many dollars." I cant translate the part about "taking measures." He was being inscrutable.

I couldn't have said it better myself

I know my posts are a little hard to read sometimes, like when I talk about hedge funds, private equity and the yen carry trade. But heres a blog site by a fellow named Rodger Rafter that is well written and informative, especially on the topic of the yen carry trade. May not be everyone's cup of tea, but indispensible if you care to know what's going on.