Just a quick note...

Janett made a collage set to music capturing many nice moments from Jason and Dee's wedding last weekend. Our trip to Vegas was a lot of fun, and Janett is going to be throwing a lot of change into the Hinkley and Schmitt bottle in the hope of a return visit next year. In case anyone visits here but doesn't know Janett's blog site, here's a link.

As for me, I know I'm unusually quiet these days. I'm a little busy, and not feeling passive or disinterested. I think I'm quiet because there's big things going on, and I'm not driving events so much as participating. Being a participant is a little different from my whistlin' gypsy rover persona. More thoughtful and (I hope) supportive than over the top.

ND's football program is an enigma now. Good offense, but still uncertain on defense. I do think the Big 11 refs were unfair in their calls, but that's pretty much to be expected.

The market persists higher. Charts of the S&P and DJIA dont look like they're topping. I had to rollover my ISLE option, losing a hundred dollars closing out the Sept option and opening an Oct one.

Jose and I are getting along and making progress, Janett's contributing a lot to the venture. In fact she's so busy now with all that's going on, we're both wondering when she's going to get a down day to regroup. Saturday night, after a fun day with Steffie and the boys in Dundee, we had a quiet moment on the porch and shared the feeling that we're very fortunate.

I think I'll click on my playlist and chill for a bit.

One ND fans reaction to Saturday's loss

link

Must be tough...

I'm no fun

Been sick a week. Head and chest congestion. Occasional running nose or coughing.
One would hope coughing would clear the lungs, but it doesn't seem to work. Worst I feel fatigued a lot. Even mental activity, like working with Janett on how to enter a new clients transactions in Quickbooks wears me out quickly.

I am happy with ND's win, and am looking forward to our Vegas adventure this weekend.
I'll be the prototypical Irish fan searching out a TV at the reception to catch a glimpse of the game. Hmmm, maybe not. Given the time difference, the game should be on early afternoon vs a late afternoon wedding. Folks may be hanging out poolside early, and I could probably slip away now and again. We'll see.

I can't emote much or form strong opinions at this time. Just wanted to be in touch. See you later.

As the saying goes,

I'm sick and tired of being sick and tired. But here's my magic elixir.

Here's fhe first few paragraphs of a good write up on the game Saturday. Click here for the rest.

Irish, Weis Seek Validation
posted by Mike Coffey
by John Vannie

Notre Dame opens the 2009 football season at home on Saturday with renewed hope for both the program’s reputation and the security of its head coach. The Irish struggled to a 10-15 record in the past two seasons as Charlie Weis attempted to rebuild the program with a solid base of underclassmen. This year, the team and its fans expect to reap the rewards of this endeavor. The overall roster is generally more athletic, many key players have gained valuable experience, and the schedule appears to be quite favorable.

The opposition this week will be provided by the Nevada Wolfpack, who have never played Notre Dame. Chris Ault’s team boasts a potent offense that was ranked in the nation’s top five last year and returns most of its starters, except at wide receiver. The defense is far less formidable, but Nevada hopes that the patience afforded last year’s young players will lead to improvement this season.
Weis barely managed to survive last November’s collapse and must start fast this month in order to keep the smoldering chair in his office from a spontaneous combustion. The Irish boast a wealth of talent at the skill positions and an experienced offensive line. The latter unit has been much maligned over the past two seasons for inconsistent performances and passive play, but enters this campaign injury-free and absent any plausible excuse.

Defensively, the back seven is stocked with speed, skill and numbers. Competition at each linebacker and secondary position has yielded a formidable two-deep that has not been evident in South Bend in more than a decade. The primary concern is an inexperienced group of linemen, but this can be mitigated if sufficient members of a promising sophomore contingent meet or exceed expectations. Nevada is the first of several teams that will test Notre Dame’s ability to stop the run, and the degree to which the Irish are successful will be a key factor in their overall season results.

I have a cold

and I feel like slouching around all day in a bathrobe, and not even making my hair lay down, or shaving. And going to the ice box and eating leftovers, one spoonful per visit, and channel surfing between stations for real crime shows while checking ESPN for college football news.

Just writing this has made me realize how unpleasant I must be to live with. Janett would be right to be very annoyed, and disappointed in me. OK I'm going to go clean up and get dressed.

Maybe it's the football.

photo from Bleacherreport.com

I posted to Facebook last night that I was growng annoyed at the semi-good news coming out about the "jobless recovery". I was edgy last night, and was downright unpleasant to Janett about some work we were doing on a phone book ad. She said I must be losing money in the market or might be afraid to put my name on the ad, because something was bothering me.

Well my ISLE put has been a wild ride for the last week, but it's OK, and I'm not shy about the ad, and of course I shouldn't let the business news happy talk upset me. I must be stressing because I acknowleged that the Irish have a football season encroaching.

Do they call it sublimating, repression, or denial when you try to pretend you're not concerned about something. The unexpressed anxiety vents in inexplicable and seemingly unrelated ways.

OK Let's get it all out front. I want the Irish to go 12-0 and play Florida in the BCS Championship, but what if they lose to MSU, USC and some other yet to be named crappy opponent. Then what will I do? Could I stand another year of disappointment and disilusionment?

I'll try to put this thing back in perspective and remember that college sports is just an entertainment, but if in the next few months I am sometimes ill tempered and out of sorts, dont worry. It's nothing you did.

PS did you ever notice the ND pennant on the wall in this "viral" clip. Catch the fever.

PPS Also might as well get this off my chest. I hope the Browns let Brady Quinn play this year, he does real well, and then we all email ESPN asking whatever happened to their annointed superstar QB's: Matt Leinart, Vince Young, and Jamarcus Russell.

Insider trading

Officers and directors of corporations have to report their purchases and sales of stock in their companies to the SEC. Here are the headlines for the reports for the last rhree weeks:

Aug 20, Courtesy of Finviz, the ratio of insider buying to selling transactions is 18 to 131. Total transaction value: Buys: $29.7 million; Sells: $889 million.

Aug 13, Courtesy of Finviz, the ratio of insider buying to selling transactions is 10 to 136. Total transaction value: Buys: $60.1 million; Sells: $1,146 million

Aug 6, Courtesy of Finviz, the ratio of insider buying to selling transactions is 5 to 145. Total transaction value: Buys: $13.4 million; Sells: $1,042 million.

Just sayin'...
.

A statistics teacher, I think, once told us

the best daily weather forecast would be "tomorrow will be a lot like today." That's true in many aspects of life. Big changes are pretty rare. But, I'll be sixty-four in a month and it occurs to me a lot of guys seem to die between the ages of seventy and seventy-five, and given my lifestyle, some would say I'd be optimistic in planning to live that long.

So instead of assuming an unbroken succession of good days, I have to be aware that the probability of some kind of breakdown or illness increases monthly for me, any one of which could have debilitating or fatal consequences. Weird, huh?

That thought doesn't depress me, nor is it likely to cause me to change the day to day pattern of my life, but it is interesting to think the probability may be that I have 5 more years to live. Any of us over 40 years of age think 5 years can go by pretty fast. Maybe, I'll start taking a baby aspirin every evening or say a prayer of contrition every week, and maybe I'll live to be ninety (but I kind of hope not.)

That reminds me of the story of the two brigands dragged before the king for sentencing, and the clever one, bargaining for his life tells the king that in his travels he has seen many great things including among others a flying horse, and that he had learned the secret of how to capture this wondrous horse. The king expressed an interest in obtaining the marvelous steed and the bandit told the king it would take several months to travel to the land where the horse lived and several more months to capture the horse, but that he was sure he could deliver the horse to the king in one year from that very day. When he did he would hope for a pardon and if he didn't his life would be forfeit. The king agreed to these terms. As they left the court the second bandit asked, "Now what are we supposed to do?" and the first said "Many things can happen in a year. We might die. The king might die. Or maybe we'll find a flying horse."

ND '09

2009 Notre Dame Football Schedule
Sept. 5 NEVADA
Sept. 12 at Michigan
Sept. 19 MICHIGAN STATE
Sept. 26 at Purdue
Oct. 3 WASHINGTON
Oct. 10 Open Date
Oct. 17 USC
Oct. 24 BOSTON COLLEGE
Oct. 31 vs. Washington State (at San Antonio, Texas)
Nov. 7 NAVY
Nov. 14 at Pittsburgh
Nov. 21 CONNECTICUT
Nov. 28 at Stanford

The 3W 7L 2007 season diminished my excitement over the 2008 season. In 2008 the Irish posted a better 6 and 6 plus a bowl win, but 4 of those losses were depressing; Boston. Michigan State, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. So it's hard to get really fired up for 2009.

On the bright side, QB Clausen will be better as a JR and has 2 or 3 really good receivers to throw to, esp Soph Michael Floyd and Golden Tate. I don't know who the tight end will be, but Kyle Rudolph was supposed to be pretty good.

The running backs will be very good with Armando Allem and Robert Hughes returning. James Aldridge has switched to fullback. Also Cierre Woods is a 4 star freshman who might be a five star player. Thing is, all but Woods were here last year.
I didn't watch closely enough to say, but offensive line play was probably a weakness. Coach Latina was replaced by a new line coach, Jerry Verducci. Before going to the pro's Verducci coached at Iowa State from 1989 to 1998, and I have memories of some excellent offensive lines there in those years. He's presumably emphasising basics in the hopes of improving on what some have called the "matador" style of recent Irish offensive lines.

On defense the backfield is excellent and linebackers very good. Again, the line is the question, and again the line coach has been replaced. I never thought badly of defensive line coach Jappy Oliver, but he wasn't a great recruiter and suffered from lack of talent. The talent is hopefully improving. His replacement Randy Hart from Univ of Washington is experienced and respected. Again, we hope he is emphasising fundamentals. The big add on the defense was a five star from Hawaii named Manti Te'o. He's a linebacker, and while it's uncertain which position he'll fill he'll probably get playing time.

This will be the second year for Jon Tenuta as linebacker coach and they're switching back to a 4-3 defense. I don't know if it was a promotion but he's now listed as co-defensive coordinator with Corwyn Brown, who coaches defensive backs.

I guess you'd have to call it a make or break year for Coach Weis. who with the departure of Tom Heywood takes over as his own offensive coordinator. I don't know if the offensive line in recent years has suffered from a pro style playbook, but if that was the problem, I hope Coach Weis simplifies the schemes, emphasises fundamentals and just wins 10, 11 or 12 damn football games.

Here's College Football News assessment.

PS the new athletic director is talking about how hard it is to put together a decent schedule with seven home games. Maybe he'll go to 6 and 6 home and away and down the road we won't have to be scheduling San Diego State, Nevada and Syracuse. We'll see what NBC has to say about that.

Degrees of separation

I was just watching Lonesome Dove and I liked the character of the girl who threw rocks at bad guys, so I googled her name: Nina Siemaszko. Turns out she went to St Ignatius, the same high school I did. I mean, she wasn't born yet when I graduated, but the school administration when she was there had been scholastics in my day. Turns out she and her brother Casey were in a whole bunch of films and TV shows.
I met (young) Amy Madigan, the actress married to Ed Harris for 25 years when she attended parochial school with my sister Ann and she was in a lot of stuff. And my sister Mary's close friend at Lyons Township High School, Joyce Hazelhoff was David's little sister. So if you know me you can claim four or five degrees of separation from anyone from Michael Fox, Robert Duval, Tommy Lee Jones and Kevin Kostner to that blonde chick from the lifeguard show. Thanks David

Oh, and another quirky thing. Janett and I went to the library yesterday, and in the hardcovers for sale room I found two complete Len Deighton trilogies. For $6 I picked up what at my current pace will be a years worth of reading. Bernard Sampson here I come.

First Communion Picture

Janett scanned the picture of my first communion group and I added it to my photo bucket site and she said I should provide a link, although I thought I already had. But here it is anyway. You will probably find me easily, I am second row,center. I think you can download the picture if you'd like, and enlarge and adjust brightness or contast. See if you observe a resemblance to any of the kids. See also the altar boy to the far right of the lower group. Looks like brother, Bill, doesn't it?

What I think is a helpful article re Obamacare

by Paul Krugman in the New York Times.

Op-Ed Columnist
The Swiss Menace
Published: August 16, 2009

It was the blooper heard round the world. In an editorial denouncing Democratic health reform plans, Investor’s Business Daily tried to frighten its readers by declaring that in Britain, where the government runs health care, the handicapped physicist Stephen Hawking “wouldn’t have a chance,” because the National Health Service would consider his life “essentially worthless.”

Professor Hawking, who was born in Britain, has lived there all his life, and has been well cared for by the National Health Service, was not amused.

Besides being vile and stupid, however, the editorial was beside the point. Investor’s Business Daily would like you to believe that Obamacare would turn America into Britain — or, rather, a dystopian fantasy version of Britain. The screamers on talk radio and Fox News would have you believe that the plan is to turn America into the Soviet Union. But the truth is that the plans on the table would, roughly speaking, turn America into Switzerland — which may be occupied by lederhosen-wearing holey-cheese eaters, but wasn’t a socialist hellhole the last time I looked.

Let’s talk about health care around the advanced world.

Every wealthy country other than the United States guarantees essential care to all its citizens. There are, however, wide variations in the specifics, with three main approaches taken.

In Britain, the government itself runs the hospitals and employs the doctors. We’ve all heard scare stories about how that works in practice; these stories are false. Like every system, the National Health Service has problems, but over all it appears to provide quite good care while spending only about 40 percent as much per person as we do. By the way, our own Veterans Health Administration, which is run somewhat like the British health service, also manages to combine quality care with low costs.

The second route to universal coverage leaves the actual delivery of health care in private hands, but the government pays most of the bills. That’s how Canada and, in a more complex fashion, France do it. It’s also a system familiar to most Americans, since even those of us not yet on Medicare have parents and relatives who are.

Again, you hear a lot of horror stories about such systems, most of them false. French health care is excellent. Canadians with chronic conditions are more satisfied with their system than their U.S. counterparts. And Medicare is highly popular, as evidenced by the tendency of town-hall protesters to demand that the government keep its hands off the program.

Finally, the third route to universal coverage relies on private insurance companies, using a combination of regulation and subsidies to ensure that everyone is covered. Switzerland offers the clearest example: everyone is required to buy insurance, insurers can’t discriminate based on medical history or pre-existing conditions, and lower-income citizens get government help in paying for their policies.

In this country, the Massachusetts health reform more or less follows the Swiss model; costs are running higher than expected, but the reform has greatly reduced the number of uninsured. And the most common form of health insurance in America, employment-based coverage, actually has some “Swiss” aspects: to avoid making benefits taxable, employers have to follow rules that effectively rule out discrimination based on medical history and subsidize care for lower-wage workers.

So where does Obamacare fit into all this? Basically, it’s a plan to Swissify America, using regulation and subsidies to ensure universal coverage.

If we were starting from scratch we probably wouldn’t have chosen this route. True “socialized medicine” would undoubtedly cost less, and a straightforward extension of Medicare-type coverage to all Americans would probably be cheaper than a Swiss-style system. That’s why I and others believe that a true public option competing with private insurers is extremely important: otherwise, rising costs could all too easily undermine the whole effort.

But a Swiss-style system of universal coverage would be a vast improvement on what we have now. And we already know that such systems work.

So we can do this. At this point, all that stands in the way of universal health care in America are the greed of the medical-industrial complex, the lies of the right-wing propaganda machine, and the gullibility of voters who believe those lies.

•

Reunion

My class reunion was a great pleasure. I wore a suit and was a little overdressed, but I ditched my jacket after a while, and it's always better to be overdressed than under.

The organiser of the party was Tom Casey, who was my best friend in high school, and many of the attendees were guys who'd gone to Ignatius. I was glad to see all of them. Janett looked lovely and was gracious and hung by me long enough to snap a few group photos, but then let me wander around. There were a few friends from high school, I didn't talk to as much as I might have liked, but that's the way it is at family parties, too. You speak a little with everyone, and later wish you had more time.

I spoke with Kitty P.F. the longest. I'm not sure my feelings for her are reciprocated, but I assume they are. She was the first girl I ever dated (one date) when we were probably in eighth grade or freshman year, but we lived a block apart in high school and had occassions to talk during those years. Then she went to St Mary's while I was at ND and we saw each other every so often then. She was always smart and gentle and pretty and I always considered her a friend.

She had a city job, from which I gather she's retired now, but still does some consulting. She's kept in touch with many of the nice people from college days and she filled me in a little bit, and I told her a little of where my brothers and sisters were and what they were doing.

As you may know, I like almost everyone, and am comfortable with people of different backgrounds, interests, and attainmnets, though I sometimes have to stretch a bit one way or the other. Big gatherings are a bit stressful for me because I can feel like I'm stretching in a lot of different directions, as when engaged in simultaneous conversation with a really serious investment banker and the one time quarterback who was humorously sharing with us stories of his gangster youth.

I know one is supposed to relax and be one's self, but being one's self is not always relaxing. And I don't want to pick out the biggest winners in the room and relate only to them even if they'd have me. So, the party was great, and Janett was very nice to let me wander around and visit. I think we'll do it again in 2059.

PS Go to the link to Janett's blog (to reader's right), and you can see slideshow.
Or go to http://s963.photobucket.com/albums/ae120/AndyTray/ for photos.
.

We could do

this

Back from Boston

Noah and I had a nice time in Boston. Dean and Jim have so lovely a home that I took a lot of photos and posted them at Facebook. We never lost sight of our primary objective which was to support Dean and facilitate however we could Jim's move to a care center because of his Parkinson's disease, but there were so many other aspects to the visit, I don't know which to comment on first.
One thing was that I liked traveling with Noah. I liked slipping out of the terminal for a cigarette and making him worry that we would miss our flights because I wanted a smoke. I never knew he was such a worrier. It was like role reversal. Who's the parent here, anyway? It was nice of Mommy-To-Be Lauren to let Noah depart for a few days, and then when I got home I found yummy zucchini bread in the fridge which I think she sent.
Noah and I did things like clean out the garage, and move exercise equipment around the basement, and he worked harder than I did. I got my first Chipotle dinner when the Mexican restaurant Dean wanted to take us to Thursday night was found to have closed. We took the Chipotle's home with a bottle of Lambrusco and watched a tribute to James Taylor concert tape. Noah acted like he liked James Taylor just fine, but only half watched, concentrating more on setting up Dean's new computer at a desk near the TV room.
Dean told us how she and Jim met their holy person in India. They had been visiting temples and schools looking for a holy one to be their teacher and had learned of Matagi(sp?) and visited her convent but were told she was at that time in Bombay (I think) and off they went to find her there. They approached her at a religious event and asked if they might speak to her and she invited them to return to her convent, where she gave them the room her teacher had stayed in when he visited the convent. It was a privilege for them to be invited and they became devoted to her as they learned from her. A few minutes later Dean remarked on how fortunate they were and said "Oh, she wouldn't have invited us if she hadn't felt we were connected." I didn't ask Dean to elaborate on the nature of this connection, but in the Hindu faith it probably meant that they had been together in some way in a previous life. Well, I don't personally believe in reincarnation, but I do feel Noah has in some way a connection with Jim and Dean and that's why he wanted to visit before Jim's health deteriorated any further. He has previously discussed with a positive sense principles like non dualism, which are more in tune with Hinduism than Christian beliefs.
Maybe I project too much, but more than just affection I feel as though Noah perceives that Jim and/or Dean posess something that attracts him. I don't understand it it but I respect it. When I said good night to Noah last night I added thanks for his coming along with me on the trip, and he said "No, you came with me."

Re Baseball and the Irish

I hear Jeff Sanardzjia's pitching for the Cub's tomorrow. Hope he practiced his change-up while visiting the minors.

Here's a little clip of Quinn and Samardzjia against UCLA. Down 4 ponts, 40 seconds left in the game, 45 yards to go - who ya gonna call?

Gotta get a little more excited about the Irish than we did last year.


(several days later: maybe I just dreamt that about Jeff and the cubs)

Going to Boston tomorrrow.

Being with Noah and Dean and seeing Jim will be great. I was in Boston once or twice before. I remember getting my picture taken with a statue of Mayor Curley, sitting on a park bench as I recall, and going to the Old North Church. The Mayor Curley thing was kind of unique back then (maybe 30 years ago.) More recently I think I've seen park bench statues of Big Bird and Ronald McDonald. Sigh. One snapshot in my mind is of strings of lights over a busy market street in an old Italian nighborhood. I wondered if they had feast days to celebrate so often that they left the lights up year around. I'd like to live in a neighborhood like that.

Of course, everyone there is probably getting goofy over the Yankee-Red Sox thing. Maybe we'll watch a Red Sox game one evening and try to catch a little baseball fever. So far this year I haven't succumbed, even though I guess the Sox and Cubs are close to top of their respective divisions. I get my baseball enthusiasm through osmosis from people around me, and I just don't feel it in the air this year. Maybe people think our teams won't make it through the play-off's, so why get all excited.

I don't think I'll take the laptop, and probably won't post while there. So I guess I should tell you that I bought a put on ISLE (Isle of Capri), a casino company stock on the 30th of July. it's down a little, but i'd like it to drop to its 200 day moving average, around $7 pretty soon. My grudge stocks, Darden and Gymboree are still doing pretty well, although Darden is off it's high, Gymboree is out of sight. Still bearish? you ask. Sure, and while I wish a speedy and robust econonic recovery to all those near and dear, I feel personally a little Eeyore-ish or maybe Cassandra-ish and provide a link to this article for you to fret over while I'm gone.

We need help

Janett's going to visit Jason. I was going to write a letter to a client, so I thought before she left we could set up my "all in one" printer. (Scanner, copier, printer, fax), and while we were at it set up the "magic jack" I purchased to link to the printer and serve as a dedicated line for the fax application. An hour and a half later. We got no where and were getting annoyed with each other's suggestions amd so we quit. Janett says she'll work on this project later, when I'm not around.

How bad was it? We couldn't even get the printer ink cartridge cradle to slide over when we opened the covering flap. We thought we had installed the printer but it doesn't show up on the device list. When we turn the printer on, a little alarm light comes on telling us to look for a "stuck button." We thought we registered and installed Magic Jack, but couldn't get a dial tone on the hand set on the "all in one", or on the phone we hooked to Magic Jack to try as an alternative. We feel stupid and disgruntled, or at least, I do. Janett just left for Jason's. She has re-focused. That's what I should do. Maybe a little shirt ironing therapy.

I'd give you my new Magic Jack phone number, but what would be the point?

OK, we got it all worked out.

Janett never got too excited about Fremont Street and the Four Queens, so we're staying at the Excalibur, which looks like a cleaner and perhaps funner place (big nice pool, which Four Queens couldn't offer). I also acceded to her idea of going on Thursday and coming back on Monday. She consented to allow me to book direct flights so we have a good half day there on Thursday and almost all day Monday. Also we get to rent a full sized car. Much nicer plan than my original. See how grownups work things out, not a cross word between us, just a little google fatigue.
Unfortunately, yesterday, I kind of persuaded Ross of the appeal of the gritty city street versus the plastic playland of the strip. Sorry Ross, playland it is. But I'll drive you around in my sedan.

Quasi-political comment

about Obama's style. He hardly seemed to notice that those two journalists had been arrested, tried, convicted, and thrown in the slammer, but today they're home with their families. He's been low key in the face of other events that just seemed to resolve themselves in a couple of weeks.

Previous administration, in the person, perhaps of the veep, would have been fulminating and those young ladies would have been moved to the darkest corner of some Korean hell, but at least that administration would have gotten to enjoy demonstrating their impotent machismo.

I like Obama's way better.

(But i have a few questions about what a couple well connected journalists were doing getting lost and stumbling into North Korea in the first place)

A Post with a Purpose

At the bottom of the page was a short post with a link to the story about Goldman Sachs's stolen trading software. This post should knock that one to page two. So now you'll be able to scroll all the way down the first page and not find a rant about the economy or financial markets.
This will be a rare and short lived phenomena.

I'm tired. I stayed up late last night googling

to find acceptable airfares and accommodations for a trip to Las Vegas if Jason and Dee decide to get married there next month. I know, it's the last wedding we'll get to share with one of the children, and our contribution will be minimal so I shouldn't worry and just have fun. But I thought if I could just drop a thou on the trip Janett wouldn't have to worry about pulling cash out of a money market, and she could relax and enjoy the wedding. Well, I don't travel much and my expectations may be unreasonable, like when planning a visit to Dean and Jim's. To rent a sub compact car in Boston cost $75 dollars a day. I was surprised.

Well, round trip airfare for two could easily cost a thousand. So that's why I started googling, and even though we may spend more than a thousand, we won't be way over-unless I pull a Clark Griswold. (Maybe I'd better let Janett hold the plastic.)
Besides shopping around for air-fares the other component of our (my?) plan is to stay at the Four Queens in the old downtown instead of staying on the Strip.

I'm sure Jason and Dee will be staying somewhere sparkly on the Strip along with whatever friends and other relatives who make the trip. I hope they don't try too hard to persuade me to join them there. Besides the money, you see, I'm just not sure I'm a Bellagio kind of guy. I'd feel more comfortable on Fremont Street, where The Fremont, the Golden Nugget, Binyons, and the Four Queens all have restaurants where they serve prime rib for ten or twelve bucks or buffets where for the same money you can chow down on shrimp, salads, and fancy deserts. Janett and I could walk down the street under that light show thingy they have there, and feel like we're enjoying the night life as we walk past the open doors of casinos and saloons with loud music in the air. And we're renting a car so we can take a little trip to Lake Mead, and when visiting the wedding party at their digs we'll get just a taste of the high life, without enduring 72 hours straight of it.

But what if it's seedy or tacky? I don't think it will be, but those hotels are forty or fifty year old and have been well used, I'm sure. We just have to be ready, if we find the accommodations unsuitable to blow off our meager prepaid amounts, forget about the parsimonious budget, and find something we like better. If anyone has suggestions or comments, please don't hesitate to share them. After all, this presumably will be our once in a lifetime Vegas weekend.

There might be a problem when Janett gets home.

This morning I went along with Janett to her doctor's apppointment. It was a routine visit and they discussed changes in prescriptions. The doctor's office is in Algonquin and happens to be close to a mall with a Butera's grocery store. Algonquin isn't fancy but its a little up scale from Elgin, and this Butera's was formerly a Piggly Wiggly, and the store is nice and not over 10 years old. So I mentioned to Janett that maybe we should drop by the Butera's, since this was the one Butera at which I had a chance of getting her to shop. Well, no, she didn't think we needed anything. I was a little disappointed to miss the chance to get cold cuts and sliced cheese for half of what they charge at Jewel, Dominicks, or even Meyers. But she's been doing a good job with the household budget and I have to defer in these matters, so we went on about our business.
Then a little after five she dropped by downstairs to tell me she was going to help Steffie shop for some go-to-work clothes for a temporary position that had opened up at the church. (Good luck Steffo!)
Well, she's never actually forebidden me from doing a little shopping at our local Butera's. So when I left the office I hopped in the car and headed straight for that den of grocerial iniquity, that open pit of dirty floors and stale-date-challenged provender. I couldn't help it.
But driving the few blocks to the store I realized that it could be argued that we might not really need any sandwich meat or cheese slices, and I dare not risk over stocking and exposing myself to the "You're not saving money if I end up throwing it away" reproach, and I began to shift my objective toward a quick hot ready to eat meal from the deli counter, Yeah, that was the ticket!
Providentially, the first special island in the produce department offered a selection of Racine Bakery Kolacky's for which Janett is known to have a weak spot. Good find. Three and half dollars, and worth every penny. Then some house brand hot dog buns and a package of Scott Peterson franks for 99 cents each. Who could resist - 8 meals for under two dollars. But when I got to the hot entree counter the lady had started cleaning up and the selecton was limited to Mexican (boiled?) beef, or cabbage rolls for 4.99 per pound. I debated with myself, confused and not hopeful of a really good outcome, and then I noticed some cello wrapped containers on the counter top. Some of the day's leftovers at even further reduced prices. Well it wasn't batter fried tilapia or barbecued ribs but it was cheap food.
So I grabbed one of each; chicken nuggets (1 1/4 lb for .97) jalapeno poppers (1 1/4 lb for 1.50) and six egg rolls for 2.10, even though that necessitated the expenditure of an additional dollar and a half for sweet and sour sauce. On the way to the register I did pick up sliced Deluxe American cheeze for $5. But that usually happens, partly because I see it as a desirable commodity and also as a blow struck against the purveyors of the ubiquitious "processed cheese food"
There you have it, a virtual cornucopia for $16. Oh, and at the register, as further justification for this little excursion, I also picked up a quick pick for tomorrow's mega million game. If we win tomorrow night any lingering unhappiness over my behavior will be washed away in a tidal wave of money,

Now I'm home. I ate some chicken nuggets and jalapeno poppers but there's a lot left. I'm saving the egg rolls to enjoy with my little sweetie. But I'm kind of nervous that the phone's going to ring at any second and it will be Janett asking if I want her to bring home McDonalds.

Gates and Crowley

My brother Mike and I have been exchanging Facebook comments about Officer Crowley and Professor Gates. I just posted there this link to a Time Magazine article on the arrest. Mike is upset with President Obama, I'm upset with the police officer. I'll quote the central part from the Time article: "In classically phony police talk, Crowley refers to "[Gates'] continued tumultuous behavior." When cops write that way, you know they have nothing. What is tumultuous behavior? Here's what it isn't: he brandished a knife in a threatening manner, he punched and kicked, he clenched his fist in a threatening manner, he threw a wrench or, in the Gates house, maybe a book. If the subject does any of those things, cops always write it out with precision. When they've got nothing, they use phrases that mean nothing. Phrases like tumultuous behavior.
Unless you confess to a crime,or threaten to commit a crime, there is nothing you can say to a cop that makes it legal for him to arrest you. You can tell him he is stupid, you can tell him he is ugly, you can call him racist, you can say anything you might feel like saying about his mother. He has taken an oath to listen to all of that and ignore it. That is the real teachable moment here — cops are paid to be professionals, but even the best of them are human and can make stupid mistakes.
We have an uncomfortable choice with Sergeant Crowley. Either he doesn't know what disorderly conduct is or Crowley simply decided to show Gates who's boss the only way he knew how at the time — by whipping out his handcuffs and abusing his power to arrest. Police make the latter choice in this country every day, knowing that the charges are going to have to be dropped."

I don't like police manhandling citizens and cuffing them for a ride to the station because they don't like people telling them they're being a**-**les. I think it's your inalienable right to tell them so if you believe it (but until we get this thing straightened out I don't suggest you try it.)

PS I may change my photo again. Janett doesn't like the new one 'cause my hair's smushed down.

Jason

Jason is our oldest son. He came along with Janett, and has always been her protector, even though he sometimes seems to think she lacks a practical grasp on reality. He seems to feel that way about his sisters and fiancee, Domenica, as well. We can't figure that out because we always suppose boys acquire their attitudes toward women from their fathers, and I pretty much respect women and think they're very sound as a rule.
Not withstanding that little attitude thing, Jase has always been very loving, and it's too bad that he's had to put up with a lot. For one thing since childhood he's had a condition called Polyarteritis nodosa. My layman's understanding is that it's an auto immune defect. The symptoms in Jason's case are sores on his calves and ankles that can start from a little bruise and don't heal, but grow deeper and wider. We went to the hospital today because he was receiving treatment from a wound specialist. We all hope the treatment is beneficial, and wish "Dee" well in coping with Jase during the prescribed 30 days off work and off the leg.
Jason is not husky but is pretty strong, a hard worker and virtually unable to sit still for more than five minutes. When exasperated he shouts a lot. Maybe we could get Dee some earplugs as a "gag" gift. One likely benefit is that Jason and little Joey will become really proficient at all the electronic games in the family room and will be happy to share a month of dad and son companionship.
Love and best wishes to Jase, Dee, and Joey.
.

I don't know if young people like Roy Orbison

But here's a clip from the late sixties, Interesting 'cause it looks like Bruce Springsteen and Elvis Costello were playing guitar in the orchestra. We all have to start somewhere.

If you do like Roy Orbison, here's my favorite, Blue Bayou

Please excuse my not posting...

I have no excuse, really. But I have had things going on. Like Noah and I planning a visit to Dean and Jim's mid-August. And Janett taking tests to become certified as a Quick Books Pro Advisor. And getting the check in the mail for the reunion coming up on the 15th of August.

Last time (or the time just before) I was an optimistic bear, because of the broken head and shoulders on the S&P and the Dow closing below it's 200 day moving average, I did buy a put on CAKE (Cheesecake Factory) Which then went up a couple dollars. Fortunately because they were cheap I also bought puts on Diodes and Coach which fell a little, So I broke even that week, except I didn't cover my $60 in commissions. And as always I nurture resentment, this time toward the people I envision gorging themselves on overpriced cheesecake, while the malls tumble to the ground around them.

And Saturday Steffie needed to break out of her routine so she and Janett took Owen shopping while Mally and I hung out. "Well, actually" as Mally would say, hanging out with Mally sounds more laid back than it really is. First he came to the office to supervise and evaluate staff performance. A check after your name indicates you did something well, an "X", not so well. Ageo and I did better than Jose, but I sucked up to Mally a lot, to the point where he began to look at me, a little suspiciously every time I complemented a method or manner. Still I got my checks.

Then we walked to the tiny neighborhood grocery where they sell prepared Mexican food (can you say menudo) as well as grocery staples. Malachy selected a big bag of marshmallows, like his mommy used to buy.

We then went across the street to a play park and played at being pirates with the jungle gym being our ship and the marshmallows our provisions. Mally ate quite a few marshmallows. I could see why Steffie doesn't try to keep them in stock at home. But he politely asked if he could have another each time, say every five minutes for the hour we were there.

Then home again, and more pirate play including drawing treasure maps. Mine was pretty good, even including a little pirate ship which Malachy told me looked more like a duck to him. So we began another game. I was the country cousin and lived on a farm, the porch where I could smoke and he was the city cousin and owned a grocery store, which we simulated by spreading groceries on the kitchen counters. Fortunately Steffie and Mom got back about then and Steffie had us put on a movie to watch and we napped on the futon while the movie played. When we woke up it was time for another walk, to the little store again by a different route. This time we picked up a large bottle of Fanta orange pop. When we got home and had a cold drink Steffie was saying it was about time to go home, which would have been OK with me, but then Noah called and said he could drop by. Steffie was happy to stay and wait. As it turned out Noah was a godsend introducing an energy level to the play more agreeable to the sugar-fried Malachy than my depleted enthusiasm.

But the visit was nice and I know how lucky we are to be close to the children, even though I was too tired to blog over the weekend. Dinner time, see you later.

"...to manipulate the market in unfair ways."

Let's get this software back to Goldman Sachs whom we can all trust to use it to manipulate the market in only fair ways.

At two with nature...

I remembered, as Facebooking a comment on a photo of Ross at the beach, that "at two with nature" was how Dorothy Parker once described herself. If people remember New York's Algonquin Hotel today, it is as the setting for Rosemary's Baby or the place where John Lennon got shot. But in my grandfather's time, Dorothy Parker and other urbane litterati had a lunch club that met there. They acted as though they thought they were the cleverest people in the world, and maybe they did, and maybe they were.

I thought you might not know, so I googled her name and copied this little biographical sketch from the American Associaston of Authors and Writers.

Dorothy Parker

On August 23, 1893, an extraordinary event exploded across the universe. On that day, the indomitable, wise-cracking Dorothy Rothschild Parker decided to join the party.

Parker was born and raised in West End, New Jersey, to a Jewish father and a Scottish mother who died when her daughter was only five. The loss initially devastated her, although in time she grew to rely more heavily on her father, who had amassed a small fortune in the garment industry. Father and daughter soon developed a strong bond, and Parker shared with him all of the secrets and joys that only a young child can know. Two years later, he married a strict Roman Catholic woman, and trouble loomed in paradise.

Parker disliked her step-mother intensely, and the feeling was mutual. As a young girl, she was enrolled at a Catholic school for girls in Manhattan, later transferring to Miss Dana's Boarding School. Her father told school authorities that she was Episcopalian, although her dark Jewishness marked her as an outsider. She maintained that image of herself--dark, brooding, alone--and in the face of early alienation and disappointment, she developed a biting and irreverent sense of humor to help her cope with her loneliness. Late in life, she described herself as "one of those awful children who wrote verses."

Despite her earliest literary inclinations, Parker left school suddenly at the age of fourteen, never to return, to take care of her ill father, who had once again become a widower.

When her father died in 1913, Parker moved to New York City to seek a better life. She wrote by day and earned money playing the piano at the Manhattan School of Dance by night. Few people who knew her then would have guessed that she would work herself up to become a legendary figure in New York's literary scene, as well as one of the most talked about, revered, and feared critics in literary history.

Parker began selling poetry to the prestigious Vogue magazine at the age of 19 and soon accepted an editorial position there. From 1917 to 1920, she also worked as a freelance critic for Vanity Fair and formed, along with Robert Benchley and Robert Sherwood, the nucleus of a group they dubbed the Algonquin Round Table, an informal luncheon clique held at New York City's Algonquin Hotel on Forty-Fourth Street. Other Round Table members included writers Ring Lardner, James Thurber, and Harold Ross, who created the New Yorker magazine.

Ross said later that he borrowed the tone of voice for his magazine--irreverent, witty, and sarcastic--from those early meetings. Parker was the only female member of the club and often the only woman in attendance.

Oh, life is a glorious cycle of song,
A medley of extemporanea;
And love is a thing that can never go wrong;
And I am Marie of Roumania. - from Comment

Parker began her literary career shortly after World War I during an era when slick magazines were one of the most popular forms of entertainment in the country. The best writers of the day relied heavily on sarcasm, adopting a sophisticated, wise-cracking tone of voice. Parker soon proved that she could be just as sassy as any man.

An enigma of the day, she stood barely four feet-eleven inches tall. She loved to drink, she loved to dance, she loved to smoke, she loved to swear. And she loved to fall in love with men who didn't love her back. Drama critic Alexander Woollcott described her as "A blend of Little Nell and Lady Macbeth." Parker replied, "[I'm] just a little Jewish girl, trying to be cute."

In 1920, Parker was fired from Vanity Fair because her drama reviews had become too harsh and heartless, so she decided to put her cutting-edge cynicism to work in her first book of poems, Enough Rope, which became a national bestseller when it hit the shelves in 1926. Perfectly suited to the role of the Queen of the Flappers, she bobbed her hair, endured several extra-marital affairs, suffered frequent bouts with alcoholism, and attempted suicide on three (or possibly four, but who was counting?) occasions. Through it all, she somehow managed to maintain the high quality of her writing.

She managed, too, despite her cynicism, to take a lifelong if intermittent interest in political activism. One of those projects would affect her for the remainder of her life. It was her "pet" project, or so she called it--a demand for the release of two Italian immigrants who had been arrested for murder. She brought the project to the Algonquin where she engaged the other members of the club in heated debate. She felt strongly that long-time political anarchists Nicola Sacco and Bartolomeo Vanzetti had been set up to take the rap for a crime they didn't commit, and she worked diligently at getting their death sentence overturned. She enticed several other celebrities into joining her, and she was arrested while marching with Robert Benchley and Heywood Broun for the Italians' release.

It was only one of her political crusades that included going to Spain to work against Franco in the Spanish Civil War (the "proudest thing" she ever did), organizing Hollywood screenwriters into a protective guild, and getting blacklisted by the House on Un-American Activities Committee for her leftist social views.

But Parker the Activist had to reconcile herself to Parker the working girl; and, in 1927, she joined the staff of The New Yorker magazine where she wrote book reviews under the pen name, Constant Reader. While she was there, she became famous for her two-line quip,

Men seldom make passes
At girls who wear glasses.

Independent and feisty, Parker--by now an established author--followed up her first book with Sunset Guns (1928) and Death and Taxes (1931), which were collected in Collected Poems: Not So Deep as a Well (1936). Her works in verse were sardonic, dry, and elegantly written commentaries on lost love or on the shallowness of modern life.

Why is it no one sent me yet
One perfect limousine, do you suppose?
Ah, no, it's always just my luck to get
One perfect rose.

Parker's short stories, which were collected in After Such Pleasures (1932) and Here Lies (1939), illuminated her deep knowledge and understanding of human nature. Among her best-known tales are A Big Blonde and A Telephone Call.

During the 1930s, Parker moved with her second husband, Alan Campbell, to Hollywood where she worked as a screenwriter on A Star Is Born (1937), directed by William Wellman and starring Janet Gaynor, Fredric March, and Adolphe Menjou. She received An Academy Award for the screenplay, along with Campbell and Robert Carson. She also collaborated with Peter Vierter and Joan Harrison on Alfred Hitchcock's Saboteur (1940).

But her success in Hollywood failed to quench her thirst for sardonic wit, much to the chagrin of many big-name celebrities of the day. Once, after meeting Joan Crawford, who was married at the time to Franchot Tone, Parker said, "You can take a whore to culture, but you can't make her think." Of the acting talents of Katherine Hepburn, she wrote, "She ran the whole gamut of emotions, from A to B."

When Parker turned 70, she said, "If I had any decency, I'd be dead. Most of my friends are." She also said, "Wit has truth in it; wisecracking is simply calisthenics with words."

Much of Parker's best writing was collected in the Portable Dorothy Parker, which has been in print since 1944. Of the first ten Portables published by Viking, only the Portable Shakespeare and the Portable Bible have sold as well and as steadily.


Razors pain you;
Rivers are damp;
Acids stain you;
And drugs cause cramp.
Guns aren't lawful;
Nooses give;
Gas smells awful;
You might as well live. - from Resume

Besides her witty limericks, Parker contributed several words and phrases to America's pop vernacular, including bobbed (hairstyle: 1915), queer (homosexual: 1929), bundle of nerves (1915), it's a small world (1915), and what the hell (colloquial: 1923), not to mention the ubiquitous high society, one-night stand, and, appropriately enough, wisecrack.

Dorothy Parker, who once said, "I don't care what is written about me so long as it isn't true" and "People are more fun than anybody," penned her last sardonic quip on June 7, 1967. She died alone and broken in the New York hotel she had helped to make famous and that had become her final home.

I'm not too proud to admit

that I can't figure out what's going on in the capital markets. It helps a little bit that the experts are also clueless. This article gives us a sense of the prevailing uncertainty.

Here's a telling quote.
"Trying to figure out what the financial end game is, beyond simple Armageddon, is probably impossible. Right now many conflicting issues don’t make fundamental long-term sense. This is a very complicated maze. However, being lost inside while searching for enlightenment seems a worthy task."

Here's a scary but plausible quote from further down in the article.
"The financial industry is fundamentally doomed. Anticipate a large scale event that uses shock doctrine to control and manipulate people’s minds. Since WW II the ability to master groups and make them susceptible to brainwashing has been perfected. A massive bank collapse could be the catalytic event used to marginalize and control societies in a new direction."

Show of Hands: Who thinks they're practicing their "massive event" technique now, using Michael Jackson's death to perfect their skills?

Random thoughts

Besides classic mysteries on 11 and 20, The Closer seems to be the only show Janett and I currently enjoy.

I went short a couple of cheapies (brought puts) Cheesecake Factory and Diodes. I'll try to pick up a put on Coach tomorrow. Guess? would have been OK, but we'll see.

Brother John is back in NYC. I never had a brother who lives im NYC before.

Not giving Obama a lot of thought. Stii supportive and hopeful, but politicians may prove ineffectual and irrelevant to the resolution of our problems.

Happy July 4th

We had a really nice day, kicking off the celebrations with the Elgin Independence day Parade at 9AM. Mally and Mark were marching with Master Kim's Karate school and were resplendent in their martial art whites. Kim, Ross and I were very proud of them, as I assume was Owen, but Owen was wide eyed at everything and didn't seem to take special notice of his familial connection to the marchers.

Janett didn't attend. She was home making party preparations, including some barbecuing, and did really well. She'd gotten prepared for today over the last couple days, including making a big batch of pasta salad, her summer specialty. It has noodles bigger than macaroni (rigatoni?) al dente, and baby peas, and little chunks of cheddar cheese, and mayonnaise, and red wine vinegar and finely blended onions, celery, and green pepper. The secret ingredient? a little tarragon.
I love that stuff, I mean the dish, not just the tarragon.

We had to hurry a little because Mark was taking Steffy and the boys to Iowa to visit family and wanted to get there in time to attend festivities before fireworks. We were also celebrating Kim's birthday a few days in advance because she and Ross are going to Michigan on her birthday and will stay a few days. Janett made a butter pecan cake and frosted it with pecan coconut frosting. Fun. Kim and Ross stayed a while after Steffy and Mark left, but all were gone by 1:30. They had plans for Taste of Lombard(!?) and fireworks this evening.

Janett had plans to kick back and enjoy some quiet restful solitude, but we were saved by Louie and Julie, who'd had to cancel their pool day due to clouds and a little rain, and dropped by. I had leftovers from the grill, but Louie preferred chips and salsa, and birthday cake. Julie scarcely nibbled, maybe saving herself for a cookout they would attend this evening.

Jason, Dee and Joey were missed in their absence as were Noah and Lauren. But the nicest thing about these kind of parties, speaking as a parent, is the sense that the children married people whom they love and have happiness.

It's just past nine now and Janett is back at her QuickBooks tutorials (somebody has to get certified, and she's our tech guru.)

I'm a lucky guy.

PS I'm looking at Guess? as a short for Monday. Any opinions? Feed back around here is "aren't you the guy who shorted Darden during Lobster Fest?"

Standard deviations

As is usually the case with posted images, clicking on it will show it larger on another screen.

I know I said the Dow could go to 10,500 or higher and I was staying away from the market and not going to be going short anytime soon, but I can't help looking and observed something interesting tonight. Computers are pretty good at plotting trend lines and standard deviations, so an innocent bystander like me can press a couple buttons and make uninformed observations. Using linear regression one can plot trend lines through a lot of data. Something like 68% of the data points will fall within one standard deviation of the trend line. Something like 95% of the data points will fall within 2 standard deviations of the trend line. So, I plotted a trend line going back to the high on the Dow in late '07. The image I've attached only goes back 9 mo, to show better definition, but the trend line does have a longer history. Anyway the rally we've been "enjoying" has moved the market from the bottom of a two standard deviation channel to the top of a two deviation channel, and for the last couple of weeks the Dow has been bumping against the long term, downward sloping top.

A 1.5 standard deviation channel better fits the data for the rally we've been in since March. The Dow is currently grinding against the bottom of this channel. So which will it be? Breaking below the rally channel to stay in the long range downtrend or breaking above the long term trend to sustain the rally channel. Can't do both and it's time to make up it's mind.

I'm still just watching, but I'm getting edgy.

PS The S&P chart looks about the same.

On C-Span this morning

a guest was an economist I think named Peter Marici, from (I think) the University of Maryland. He seemed very direct, and down to earth. Seemed to blame politicians more than bankers and businessmen for mishandling the economy. He seemed more sympathetic towards Bernanke and the Fed Reserve Bank than toward Geithner and Summers in the administration. I object to his weak critique of the bankers as merely short-sighted and making honest mistakes, as compared to politicians who are irresponsible and concerned only with the next election. He, fails for one thing, to observe that the "short sighted" bankers and businessmen engaged in intense and expensive lobbying and bribed the congressmen through their election campaign contributions to change the laws to enable the bankers to make "short-sighted mistakes". I grew more suspicious of his folksiness as he continued.

One thing he alluded to that was news to me that there is a plan developing to have the Federal Government guarantee state issued debts. I have't thought through the implications, but they're huge.

As we have done in the past, now that the weather is nice,

I've begun walking Mally the two blocks from his home to Armando's Grocery. He's surprised that is seems much easier walk now (his legs must be twice as long as they used to be). We like to look over the produce department and pick out fruit that look good, sometimes exotic things we're not really able to identify or even classify, sometimes special requests: Crystal says Owen likes avocados. We talk about stuff on the way there and back pretty much as equals, though at intersections he puts his hand in mine and allows me to guide him. Like about the music store that used to be next to the grocery store where he would stop in and abandon himself to dance to Latin rhythms, and how the pretty girl there was always happy to see him. After reminiscing for a moment he said that was one of his two saddest memories, second to falling down and skinning his knee. After another pause he remarked that actually that had occurred several times. I told him I thought that the music store should be a happy memory. He said sad because it's not there anymore.

But in the store, he's in charge. A bell pepper for Mommy, watermelon for Daddy, a peach for Poppo, an orange for him. I proposed a carton of chocolate ice cream, which sounded good to him till we got to the freezer and he decided he'd prefer the twelve pack of ice cream sandwiches. We argued a bit, but he answered all my objections. Luckily, he agreed to a compromise, and we got six. He'd been more insistent when buying yogurt for Mommy. I thought one thick and creamy strawberry would be nice. He said she'd prefer the six pack of smaller containers which looked to me like they had the Trix rabbit or some similar cartoon on them. I questioned him but he wouldn't be dissuaded . When we got home, it turned out that he was right.

I wouldn't say he's at an awkward stage, but he's growing out of his toddler cuteness and hopes to be taken seriously. When I was one among nine, I was happy just to be noticed from time to time. i think his way is a greater challenge.

Just found this wisdom on Facebook

Dave DeBaeremaeker at 9:38am June 23
remember what they say: hard work pays off tomorrow, but procrastination pays off right now

Figures dont lie, but liars can figure

Kim questioned my assumption that Ahmadinejad was accurately reported to have won election last week in Iran by a 2 to 1 majority. I still believe that to be the case, but here's intelligence officer type analysis from the Washington times that suggests the numbers were cooked.

The Devil Is in the Digits

By Bernd Beber and Alexandra Scacco
Saturday, June 20, 2009; 12:02 AM

Since the declaration of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's landslide victory in Iran's presidential election, accusations of fraud have swelled. Against expectations from pollsters and pundits alike, Ahmadinejad did surprisingly well in urban areas, including Tehran -- where he is thought to be highly unpopular -- and even Tabriz, the capital city of opposition candidate Mir Hussein Mousavi's native East Azarbaijan province.
Others have pointed to the surprisingly poor performance of Mehdi Karroubi, another reform candidate, and particularly in his home province of Lorestan, where conservative candidates fared poorly in 2005, but where Ahmadinejad allegedly captured 71 percent of the vote. Eyebrows have been raised further by the relative consistency in Ahmadinejad's vote share across Iran's provinces, in spite of wide provincial variation in past elections.
These pieces of the story point in the direction of fraud, to be sure. They have led experts to speculate that the election results released by Iran's Ministry of the Interior had been altered behind closed doors. But we don't have to rely on suggestive evidence alone. We can use statistics more systematically to show that this is likely what happened. Here's how.

We'll concentrate on vote counts -- the number of votes received by different candidates in different provinces -- and in particular the last and second-to-last digits of these numbers. For example, if a candidate received 14,579 votes in a province (Mr. Karroubi's actual vote count in Isfahan), we'll focus on digits 7 and 9.
This may seem strange, because these digits usually don't change who wins. In fact, last digits in a fair election don't tell us anything about the candidates, the make-up of the electorate or the context of the election. They are random noise in the sense that a fair vote count is as likely to end in 1 as it is to end in 2, 3, 4, or any other numeral. But that's exactly why they can serve as a litmus test for election fraud. For example, an election in which a majority of provincial vote counts ended in 5 would surely raise red flags.
Why would fraudulent numbers look any different? The reason is that humans are bad at making up numbers. Cognitive psychologists have found that study participants in lab experiments asked to write sequences of random digits will tend to select some digits more frequently than others.
So what can we make of Iran's election results? We used the results released by the Ministry of the Interior and published on the web site of Press TV, a news channel funded by Iran's government. The ministry provided data for 29 provinces, and we examined the number of votes each of the four main candidates -- Ahmadinejad, Mousavi, Karroubi and Mohsen Rezai -- is reported to have received in each of the provinces -- a total of 116 numbers.
The numbers look suspicious. We find too many 7s and not enough 5s in the last digit. We expect each digit (0, 1, 2, and so on) to appear at the end of 10 percent of the vote counts. But in Iran's provincial results, the digit 7 appears 17 percent of the time, and only 4 percent of the results end in the number 5. Two such departures from the average -- a spike of 17 percent or more in one digit and a drop to 4 percent or less in another -- are extremely unlikely. Fewer than four in a hundred non-fraudulent elections would produce such numbers.
As a point of comparison, we can analyze the state-by-state vote counts for John McCain and Barack Obama in last year's U.S. presidential election. The frequencies of last digits in these election returns never rise above 14 percent or fall below 6 percent, a pattern we would expect to see in seventy out of a hundred fair elections.
But that's not all. Psychologists have also found that humans have trouble generating non-adjacent digits (such as 64 or 17, as opposed to 23) as frequently as one would expect in a sequence of random numbers. To check for deviations of this type, we examined the pairs of last and second-to-last digits in Iran's vote counts. On average, if the results had not been manipulated, 70 percent of these pairs should consist of distinct, non-adjacent digits.
Not so in the data from Iran: Only 62 percent of the pairs contain non-adjacent digits. This may not sound so different from 70 percent, but the probability that a fair election would produce a difference this large is less than 4.2 percent. And while our first test -- variation in last-digit frequencies -- suggests that Rezai's vote counts are the most irregular, the lack of non-adjacent digits is most striking in the results reported for Ahmadinejad.
Each of these two tests provides strong evidence that the numbers released by Iran's Ministry of the Interior were manipulated. But taken together, they leave very little room for reasonable doubt. The probability that a fair election would produce both too few non-adjacent digits and the suspicious deviations in last-digit frequencies described earlier is less than .005. In other words, a bet that the numbers are clean is a one in two-hundred long shot.
Bernd Beber and Alexandra Scacco, Ph.D. candidates in political science at Columbia University, will be assistant professors in New York University's Wilf Family Department of Politics this fall.

this Iran election thing

appears to me to be another country mouse vs city cousin thing. While we all find it easier to identify with the city mice who supported the candidate receiving 1/3 of the vote (which was very much in line with pre-election polling), the country mice comprise a majority of the electorate and voted for Ahmadenijad, in the words of the little ones who Art Linkletter used to ask why they loved their mothers on his daily TV show, "because she buys me things." Fact is the rural poor need to have things bought for them, but the educated urbanites feel the country's revenues could be better spent supporting a growth economy that would offer them better employment.

Question is whether the Supreme Leader and the Council of Experts have a vested interest in maintaining the rural poor in their difficult plight in order to preserve a power base of conservative Shiites. I guess it's reasonable to assume that the conservative clerics do wish to maintain and reward the folks who support their "traditional values" message, and they are probably wary of the educated city folks.

The critical factor is the women, who are, under the law, second-class citizens, but who have aspirations of professional and political equality. Again, these educated hopeful women are city mice. It is not likely the other candidate Mousavi has rock star status among the women since in an earlier term as Prime Minister he was very comfortable accomodating the clerics and was not noticably a reformer. It seems that it was Mousavi's wife, a former university chancellor, who sparked the women's hopes of a better future with outspoken campaign speeches. The appearance of a candidates spouse at campaign events in itself was a departure from the norm, and her speaking forcefully at the events gave educated Iranian women hope for change.

I don't think, however that the demonstrators really believe the election was stolen. They're angry that their candidate lost, but acting out in the streets because your candidate lost an election 2 to 1 does not fit into a valid model for a democracy. I think Obama realizes that, and has not been able to call for the rejection of a legitimately elected president. I'm sure he hopes, as do we all, that Islam will somehow grow out of the anachronistic tendency to diminish women's rights and opportunities, but he knows an assault on the imans would be counterproductive.

He wishes to maintain any possible opportunities for constructive dialogue with Iran regarding assistance they can provide in Afghanistan and the possibility of curtailing the Iranian nuclear programs. Since it is the Israelis who hope Obama's recent overtures to Islam will fail to produce beneficial results, and resentful Republicans who are calling on him to reject the results of the election and repudiate Ahmadenijad, I can only hope his cautious balancing act works out in the best interest of all concerned.

Nobody said it was going to be easy.

Beautiful day

Wasn't it? Janett couldn't sleep last night and I got her up on the wrong side of the bed this morning. She showed resolve and a helpful spirit, coming down to the office to insure Jose and I didn't mess up setting up the payroll for a new client on Quickbooks.
We were invited to a 2PM birthday party for co-worker Evelyn's five I mean six year old daughter Lanie at Randall Oaks, a park I drive by often but seldom stop. Around 1, while we were still working, Louie called and said he was at Randall Oaks for the KofC picnic. Wow! Small world. Good for me - bad for Janett who'd begun thinking in terms of a a courtesy visit to Lanie's party and a quick return home for much needed rest.
I began scaling back my plans, finally to a 15 minute stay with each group, but Janett grew resistant to the idea of going at all. Perhaps she didn't trust me to conform to a scaled down plan. So, I went alone, which happens not uncommonly, when I've exhausted Janett. But the park was nice and I enjoyed seeing Louie and his young adult children, can't really call them kids anymore. Well, I guess we can. The birthday party was wonderful. Lanie was radiant and Evelyn vital and vivacious as ever, engaging fiercely in the water balloon melee. The food was excellent. The poor KofC'ers didn't know what they were missing. Evelyn offered to prepare Janett a plate, but salad, beans, rice, beefsteak with onions and peppers and falling-off-the-bone chicken in red sauce did not promise to travel well on a paper picnic plate, so I compromised with a piece of birthday cake and a couple of slices of watermelon. I think Janett was pleased with the selection and said the cake was particularly good which I didn't know because I'd eaten too much of the main course to try to confront desert.
Janett's retired now (at 8:30PM). Kim just called to say she, Steffy, and the boys were returning from church and could swing by for a visit. Janett groggily declined-but that's OK. We'll see them and accept best Father's Day wishes tomorrow at Jason and Dee's where we'll celebrate Joey's birthday. my life is a mad social whirl.

Did you hear about the two Japanese guys

arrested by Italian police at the Swiss border trying to smuggle $134 billon dollars in US Treasury bonds into Switzerland in a false bottom suitcase? It hasn't been a big news item. Why not? Here's a link to the original story in Asia News, but there has not been a lot of coverage in the week since the original report.
If these bonds were in a denomination of $1000 there would have been 135 million of them. That would have been some humongous suitcase. But no, these bonds were in denominations of $500 million and even a billion dollars each. Since darned few investors have a billion dollars to invest at any given moment, these bonds were presumably printed to faciltate transactions between governments or central banks.
Italian authorities says they're investigating to determine whether the bonds are counterfeit. There have been rumors of the North Korean government investing in high tech counterfeiting enterprises. Maybe, but I don't think so. I mean if you were in a position to buy a billion dollar bond, you're probably smart enough to validate their authenticity. Of course, sometimes counterfeit bonds have been used to post as collateral for a big loan, and maybe scrutiny was less strenuous than in the event of a sale. But at this kind of value I doubt procedures would be lax.
So the fun part of the story is the the speculation about whose bonds they are. First guess would be the Japanese (or some other Asian government) treasury trying to to dump dollars in Switzerland through channels that would be untraceable. If there was more coverage of the story, maybe clever conspiracy theorists could come up with scenarios even more intriguing. The government dumping theory, though, is interesting enough in its implications.

Homesick? Get your home town news here!

(Unless you come from N Dakota or Wyoming.) Julie sent this link. No comments please on superimposing the red and blue map.

I'm going to work, Heres something for you.

My vituperations against Geithner, Bernancke and the Goldman Sachs crowd are not intended obscure the fact that other causes lie at the root of the economic meltdown. This article addresses the macroeconomics. In order to entice you to read it, I will not condense or summarize it.

I hope everyone is having a nice day.

You know I support Obama, but wonder why he's

relying on the same old crowd at Treasury and the Fed.
Here's an article fron the New York Times today.

The Economy Is Still at the Brink

By SANDY B. LEWIS and WILLIAM D. COHAN
Published: June 7, 2009
WHETHER at a fund-raising dinner for wealthy supporters in Beverly Hills, or at an Air Force base in Nevada, or at Charlie Rose’s table in New York City, President Obama is conducting an all-out campaign to try to make us feel a whole lot better about the economy as quickly as possible. “It’s safe to say we have stepped back from the brink, that there is some calm that didn’t exist before,” he told donors at the Beverly Hilton Hotel late last month.

Mr. Obama thinks that the way to revive the economy is to restore confidence in it. If the mood is right, the capital will flow. But this belief is dangerously misguided. We are sympathetic to the extraordinary challenge the president faces, but if we’ve learned anything at all two years into the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes, it is that a capital-markets system this dependent on public confidence is a shockingly inadequate foundation upon which to rest our economy.

We have both spent large chunks of our lives working on Wall Street, absorbing its ethic and mores. We’re concerned that nothing has really been fixed. We’re doubly concerned that people appear to feel the worst of the storm is over — and in this, they are aided and abetted by a hugely popular and charismatic president and by the fact that the Dow has increased by 35 percent or so since Mr. Obama started to lay out his economic plans in March. But wishing for improvement and managing by the Dow’s swings are a fool’s game. (Disclosure: One of us, Mr. Lewis, was convicted on federal charges of stock manipulation in 1989, pardoned by President Bill Clinton in 2001 and had his lifetime trading ban overturned by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2006; documents relating to the case can be found at sblewis.net.)

The storm is not over, not by a long shot. Huge structural flaws remain in the architecture of our financial system, and many of the fixes that the Obama administration has proposed will do little to address them and may make them worse. At another fund-raising event, for Senator Harry Reid, President Obama said: “We didn’t ask for the challenges that we face. But we are determined to answer the call to meet those challenges, to cast aside the old arguments and overcome the stubborn divisions and move forward as one people and one nation .... It will take time but I promise you, I promise you, I’ll always tell you the truth about the challenges we face.”

Keeping that statement in mind — as well as an abiding faith in the importance of properly functioning capital markets — we have come up with a set of questions meant to challenge a popular president, with vast majorities in Congress, to find the flaws in the system, to figure out what’s being done to fix them and to get to the truth about the difficulties we face as we set out to restore the proper functioning of our markets and our standing in the world.

I can't wait for the TV movie

See article

Not So Fun

In my March 11th post on Phillip Purcell I questioned Mr Pandit's veracity.
I'm not the only one. This is from a Bloomberg news article.

Bank Profits From Accounting Rules Masking Looming Loan Losses
By Yalman Onaran
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Big banks in the U.S. say they’re on the mend. The five largest were profitable in the first quarter, rebounding from record losses for the industry in the fourth quarter. Share prices have jumped, with the KBW Bank Index doubling since March 6.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, after “stress testing” 19 banks on their ability to withstand a worsening economy, declared in early May that Americans can be confident in the banks’ stability and resilience. Wells Fargo & Co. and Morgan Stanley were among banks raising $43 billion in new capital since then through share sales.
“With our capital and assets, stressed as they have been, we can go back to focusing all our attention on managing our business and restoring value,” Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said after Geithner’s examinations were completed.
The revival may be short-lived. Analysts who have examined the quarterly profits and government tests say that accounting rule changes and rosy assumptions are making the institutions look healthier than they are.
The government probably wants to win time for the banks, keeping them alive as they struggle to earn their way out of the mess, says economist Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University in New York. The danger is that weak banks will remain reluctant to lend, hobbling President Barack Obama’s efforts to pull the economy out of recession.
‘Bogus’ Profit
Citigroup’s $1.6 billion in first-quarter profit would vanish if accounting were more stringent, says Martin Weiss of Weiss Research Inc. in Jupiter, Florida. “The big banks’ profits were totally bogus,” says Weiss, whose 38-year-old firm rates financial companies. “The new accounting rules, the stress tests: They’re all part of a major effort to put lipstick on the pig."

This is just part of a good article. It's linked above if you want more.

Also, it's part of my "sour grapes" rationale for losing money on my last 4 options trades. If the banks aren't lending the money what are they doing with it. I think they must be giving it to investment companies to run the market up to show some profits for the quarter. Once Mr Smith decides it's safe to go back into the market and recoup some losses, they'll be happy to sell to him at inflated prices.

Jimmy Rogers, commodity trader extrordinaire says for nearly the first time in his trading career, he's not short any stocks, because this newly printed "money" being pushed into the market could run the market up to 15 or 20 thousand on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. He's not sure, but he can't take the chance on shorting. So he's buying commodity futures, on the hunch the same inflationary pressures raising the Dow will affect commodities, but the demand for commodities won't dry up overnight the way the buyers in the stock market will when the time comes.

I'm not sure the market will rise over 10,500. I mean, have people completely forgotten about price earning multiples and balance sheets? But my put buying is temporarily suspended.

Fun

We went to Owen's first B-Day party yesterday, and everything was delightful. After a gray chill morning the sun came out big time and it was very comfortable in Steffy and Mark's yard. The party had a pirate theme, so there was buccaneer paraphernalia everywhere, and folks with pseudo-pirate garb, and a lot of "Aargh, maties" We got there a little early so Janett could help with the prep. Owen heard my voice in the other room after being put down for a nap and decided he's rather be carried around than sleep, so by the end of the day he was cashed but happy. Malachy was more attuned to the party's motif, and enjoyed it, although, when he didn't win the "Pin the Patch on the Pirate Game" he said that it was a bad party and he was leaving. He went to the kitchen table to color, but was coaxed back to the yard a little later. Stephy made cupcakes for the children and with the leftover batter made a small cake so owen could be helped to blow out a candle. He then mangled the little cake, and had to leave the party for a brief clean up.






And here's Mally getting all romantic:

Rough Sailing Ahead

"The Worst Is Yet to Come": If You're Not Petrified, You're Not Paying Attention
Posted May 15, 2009 09:31am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking, Autos, Housing

Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, DDR, XLF, GM, RWR

The green shoots story took a bit of hit this week between data on April retail sales, weekly jobless claims and foreclosures. But the whole concept of the economy finding its footing was "preposterous" to begin with, says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates. "We're in a complete mess and the consumer is smart enough to know it," says Davidowitz, whose firm does consulting for the retail industry. "If the consumer isn't petrified, he or she is a damn fool."

Davidowitz, who is nothing if not opinionated (and colorful), paints a very grim picture: "The worst is yet to come with consumers and banks," he says. "This country is going into a 10-year decline. Living standards will never be the same."

This outlook is based on the following main points:

With the unemployment rate rising into double digits - and that's not counting the millions of "underemployed" Americans - consumers are hitting the breaks, which is having a huge impact, given consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity.

Rising unemployment and the $8 trillion negative wealth effect of housing mean more Americans will default on not just mortgages but student loans and auto loans and credit card debt.

More consumer loan defaults will hit banks, which are also threatened by what Davidowitz calls a "depression" in commercial real estate, noting the recent bankruptcy of General Growth Properties and distressed sales by Developers Diversified and other REITs.

As for all the hullabaloo about the stress tests, he says they were a sham and part of a "con game to get private money to finance these institutions because [Treasury] can't get more money from Congress. It's the ‘greater fool' theory."

"We're now in Barack Obama's world where money goes into the most inefficient parts of the economy and we're bailing everyone out," says Daviowitz, who opposes bailouts for financials and automakers alike. "The bailout money is in the sewer and gone."

Still in posting purgatory.

But enough about me let's talk about you for awhile.

Jason is now 37, and working more hours than a lot of electrical subs right now.

Dee's indispensable role with her employer seems to be providing job security. She threw Jase a very nice party last Sunday.

Val may decide to take the summer off to be with the kids and go back to work in the fall.

John is pleased his company is spending on equipment at the site he manages. That makes one feel a little more secure.

Nate and Angie were in town for Sue's dad's funeral while J and I were in GA, so we didn't get an update from them. Hope all is well. We're sorry for the loss.

Ross is interviewing, but took off for a couple weeks off to visit family in NC

Kimmy is where she's happiest - with Ross, and the trip may pay a big dividend in the form of Ross's Mom's old Yukon which runs a lot better than that KIA or whatever parked in the drive in Lombard.

Steffy is worn and torn, stressed and fatigued by the two little boys, and wants to have a little girl. (?) Busy right now preparing for Owen's 1st Bday party.

Mark's survived a couple cuts at the church and is working a lot of hours, and is a very good daddy.

Noah's been posting to Facebook and even his blog, which shows how sociable he can be when not doubled down with work and school.

And Lauren, Well, heh, heh, Lauren has some big news to share, in it's own good time.
wink wink nudge nudge.

Jeff Samardzija got sent back to Iowa by the Cubs just before they went on their recent skid: and let that be a lesson to them.

Love to all.

Spirit

I also appreciated Tim's quoting CS Lewis, something like, You don't have a soul, you are a soul. You have a body."

My soul didn't get the lift I was seeking at Willow yesterday. Nancy Beech spoke about the value of friendship, and the diminunition of our sense of friendship is this digital age. All very good, but not what I was looking for yesterday. Still, maybe she was saying what I needed to hear, in the sense that what might be lacking for me is a Christian fellowship with whom to interact and grow, from whom to receive encouragement and criticism. That's the thing about going to church, what you're looking for isn't always what you need.

Julie emailed me this link which yielded these pictures. Touching story.