Sidelines

I'm not going to enter into a trade tonight. Maybe Wednesday after Janett's Dr's appointment my mind will be clear enough to act with confidence. Tonight I would be in doubt as to whether to go long Trade Station, an online broker with growing volume and profits, down to $5.75 from $14.50 a year ago. They're sitting on $7 a share in cash. Or to short Decker Outdoors, a shoe company with popular brands (Teva, Simple and UGG). Currently at $66 up from $50 last week, but still I think in a downtrend (from $165 a year ago). Similar range to that other short candidate, Chipotle.

Thing, is a call on Trade Station at $5 would cost me less than a hundred bucks, and the stok price would only have to go up $0.25 for me to be profitable, and if the stock goes up a dollar per share, I'd make over $200 on a $300 speculation. But a put on Decker cost $950. The stock would have to drop $9 per share for me to be ahead on the trade. So what's more likely, Trad to go up $1 (20%) or Deck to drop $12 (20%), or both, or neither? I just don't know, so I'd probably go with the cheaper trade, but that could be doing the wrong thing for the wrong reason. So we'll just watch how it plays out for a few days and maybe have a better idea which way to go next time.


PS It's 2 hours later, and I've placed an order to buy a couple Trad calls. It's only couple hundred dollars. What the heck.