I've developed cold symptoms and chest congestion that had me coughing hard last night and short of breath afterwards so I stayed home today, took medicine, rested, and hopefully will be better tomorrow.
I put in an order for a CERN put last night, but the stock opened a dollar lower and I didn't get a fill. The stock dropped another dollar during the day. I'd be up a couple hundred if I hadn't got stopped out when the price popped up over 40 the other day. Looking at the chart, it appears that was a weird price movement, and was probably one or two big orders intended to move he stock over 40 where a lot of stop loss buy orders placed by bearish folks like me would feed a rally in the stock, and run the price up further.
That's the problem with placing stop orders close to the market price, especially at a price where there's likely to be a lot of other stop loss orders. That price can be a target for speculators trying to move the market on a slow day. It doesn't do any good to be annoyed by that kind of market ploy. I just have to be more careful where I place my stop loss orders.
I didn't place any other orders because I felt some manufactured good news might come out today, which it did, in the form of Citibank's agreement to provide some relief to mortgage borrowers. As for tomorrow, the jobs numbers have been anticipated to be so bad, that a small reduction in the number of layoffs before Christmas might be taken as more good news, and keep the market up. Also, I don't underestimate the possibility of optimism related too Obama's inauguration, although Obama himself hasn't sounded too optimistic in recent days.
Yep, parsing the news is too confusing, so I'll just look at the charts.
Oh and one other item. Janett resolved to make some progress today toward her goal of being a tax practicioner this year, and went down to the office and completed eight training modulea and passed the test at he end of the day. Go J girl. Go J girl
Oh and another other item. Tomorrow the area controller is taking the accounting staff out to lunch to thank the staff for hard work during the recent closing. I'm nurturing a secret hope that it's really going to be a thanks and good luck lunch for me.
One more - I got a call from a person at the builders who were general contractor on the plant. It wasn't my usual contact and she explained that person no longer worked there, nor did two others who I've worked with. She explained that they had no ongoing projects and they'd laid off 23 of the 35 employees. This is a respected and successful builder. So it goes.
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
A nice story
My friend Louie dropped by this evening. We talked a couple times over the holidays but never managed to get together. If you've been reading stuff here for a while you must know a little about Louie, but here's the latest installment. Louie learned about horse racing from his dad. His folks would take him to the track when he was a boy, partly I guess for their own convenience. But Louie liked it and now, 40 some years later he usually owns 3 or 4 thoroughbreds which race at Arlington and Sportsmen Parks.
This spring the trainer, Tommy called him about a horse running in a $10,000 claiming race at Arlington the next day. This horse had been purchased at auction as a colt for $350,000, but in 5 years had never raced. He was apparently training all that time, and Tommy's cousin who is his clocker at the track, saw this horse in daily workouts and reported the horse was apparently healthy and very fast.
Why would the owner's run him in a 10K claiming race, which allows others to claim the horse for that amount if they wish to? Seems that by running him in a low price claimer, they entitle the horse to run in allowance races against other horses who have run in similar low price claiming races. This would enable the horse to clean up against not the best talent as they brought him along this year. It was the first of the season and perhaps they thought nobody would notice, but Tommy did.
Louie got the horse for $10,000 and ran him on the turf at Arlington this summer because Louie likes to see horses run on grass, but more so because of good turf horses in his genealogy. Well, the horse ran a couple of thirds, a second and a fourth, paying his way but not scoring a big payday. When Arlington closed this fall they took the horse to Sportsmans park and tried him on the dirt.
He won three straight races this in November and December against good competition and for purses totalling maybe $50,000. Jockeys get to pick the horses they ride and the tracks winningest jockey chose to ride Hurta (for that is his name) in the last race and she told Louie he was the nicest horse she'd ever ridden. She never touched him with the whip and he won the race by 10 lengths.
So if you go to Arlington Park next summer keep an eye out for Hurta and be happy for Louie. It was going to be hard paying the kids' tuitions this winter, with the slow-down in the building industry this year, and being an electrical contractor, and then along came Tommy, the Trainer and Hurta the wonder horse.
This spring the trainer, Tommy called him about a horse running in a $10,000 claiming race at Arlington the next day. This horse had been purchased at auction as a colt for $350,000, but in 5 years had never raced. He was apparently training all that time, and Tommy's cousin who is his clocker at the track, saw this horse in daily workouts and reported the horse was apparently healthy and very fast.
Why would the owner's run him in a 10K claiming race, which allows others to claim the horse for that amount if they wish to? Seems that by running him in a low price claimer, they entitle the horse to run in allowance races against other horses who have run in similar low price claiming races. This would enable the horse to clean up against not the best talent as they brought him along this year. It was the first of the season and perhaps they thought nobody would notice, but Tommy did.
Louie got the horse for $10,000 and ran him on the turf at Arlington this summer because Louie likes to see horses run on grass, but more so because of good turf horses in his genealogy. Well, the horse ran a couple of thirds, a second and a fourth, paying his way but not scoring a big payday. When Arlington closed this fall they took the horse to Sportsmans park and tried him on the dirt.
He won three straight races this in November and December against good competition and for purses totalling maybe $50,000. Jockeys get to pick the horses they ride and the tracks winningest jockey chose to ride Hurta (for that is his name) in the last race and she told Louie he was the nicest horse she'd ever ridden. She never touched him with the whip and he won the race by 10 lengths.
So if you go to Arlington Park next summer keep an eye out for Hurta and be happy for Louie. It was going to be hard paying the kids' tuitions this winter, with the slow-down in the building industry this year, and being an electrical contractor, and then along came Tommy, the Trainer and Hurta the wonder horse.
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
CERN was down today.
So was CMG (Chipotle) TRAD and DVN were up nicely the last couple days, and here I am, a spectator. That's OK. Confidence builders. Besides Chipotle, there's a couple other restaurant stocks that look precarious including Cracker Barrel and the company that owns Red Lobster/Olive Garden. (some of my favorites) And the gold mining companies could fall after recent rallies. I'm a gold bug and won't sell the mining companies on principle. Cracker Barrel, though, that's a loyalty of a lesser order, since they closed their local facility a couple years ago.
Mom (Mommo, Janett) and Steffie went to Kim's today for a visit, then she and Steffie went out tonight to do some shopping. I think Steffie is suffering a little from child fatigue, and is happy getting out of the house.
I left the office at 5 today. I wouldn't say I'm burned out on this job, but I sure don't feel much of a sense of urgency. I mean month end, year end, closing all the construction in process into assets placed in service and I put in an eight hour day. I really want to get into the tax/bookkeeping thing and right now I'm conserving energy and psyching myself up.
and my son Noah is working nights and that throws off our phone calling, Hello Noah, wherever you are.
Mom (Mommo, Janett) and Steffie went to Kim's today for a visit, then she and Steffie went out tonight to do some shopping. I think Steffie is suffering a little from child fatigue, and is happy getting out of the house.
I left the office at 5 today. I wouldn't say I'm burned out on this job, but I sure don't feel much of a sense of urgency. I mean month end, year end, closing all the construction in process into assets placed in service and I put in an eight hour day. I really want to get into the tax/bookkeeping thing and right now I'm conserving energy and psyching myself up.
and my son Noah is working nights and that throws off our phone calling, Hello Noah, wherever you are.
Monday, January 05, 2009
I don't want you to think I'm selective about
reporting my trading activity. My only open position got closed today when CERN ventured over $40 per share, so I lost half my $350. I didn't get a fill on my DVN order last week, so I've pretty much been doing nothing, except waiting for CERN to drop.
The chart attached may explain my passivity. The S&P 500 and the DJIA, the leading indexes have been struggling with that 23.6 retracement level I spoke of, just as have many of the stocks I look at. There was some talk of a rally last week, but looking at the chart you can see there wasn't that much happening. Both the indexes traded over ther 50 day moving average, a for sure bullish sign, but it was on low volume during a holiday week. So it's hard to be convinced right now to go long or short.
If anything I'd be tempted to reenter my CERN position (it traded lower later in the day), but I'll look at a few charts and see if anything looks promising. Love to all
PS after a look around I decided not to do anything, but Chipotle was very tempting.
The chart attached may explain my passivity. The S&P 500 and the DJIA, the leading indexes have been struggling with that 23.6 retracement level I spoke of, just as have many of the stocks I look at. There was some talk of a rally last week, but looking at the chart you can see there wasn't that much happening. Both the indexes traded over ther 50 day moving average, a for sure bullish sign, but it was on low volume during a holiday week. So it's hard to be convinced right now to go long or short.
If anything I'd be tempted to reenter my CERN position (it traded lower later in the day), but I'll look at a few charts and see if anything looks promising. Love to all
PS after a look around I decided not to do anything, but Chipotle was very tempting.
Sunday, January 04, 2009
It has been a wonderful week
I'm feeling very lucky to have such a wonderful wife and beautiful children. And the children are all well married and will be able to face whatever adversity that may come their way.
Whenever I feel so well about life, the dark Irish side of me pops up and asks how I deserve such blessings, and in fact haven't I earned disaster and misery in my careless irresponsible life. I'm sure that I have. Besides God's generosity to me, I must credit the love and faithful support of the women in my life: wife, mother, sisters, and daughters. I think of my father, too, and the kindness he showed me, in spite of my too many to count short comings and failures, always encouraging me to take the next step forward as if the past mis-steps meant nothing at all.
Being the beneficiary of so much love and kindness has protected me from the harsh consequences of my own misbehavior. I've been blessed. Usually, the darkness lingers long enough for me to ask myself, what will God say about how little I've done with all those gifts. Then I remember what a fellow told me years ago about how pitifully inadequate and offensive any of us will be, standing before God, and that's why we must be washed in the blood of the Savior when we come before Him, and that will cover the repellent scars and disfigurations of our souls, and He will see us only as the beloved of his Son and will accept us into His kingdom. Then the peace and joy we know will be measured by how devoted we were to the Lord in our lifetime. I guess that's why the saints and prophets kept praying to God to make them more devoted. I have a long way to go, but sometimes it seems like less of a struggle than at others.
Whenever I feel so well about life, the dark Irish side of me pops up and asks how I deserve such blessings, and in fact haven't I earned disaster and misery in my careless irresponsible life. I'm sure that I have. Besides God's generosity to me, I must credit the love and faithful support of the women in my life: wife, mother, sisters, and daughters. I think of my father, too, and the kindness he showed me, in spite of my too many to count short comings and failures, always encouraging me to take the next step forward as if the past mis-steps meant nothing at all.
Being the beneficiary of so much love and kindness has protected me from the harsh consequences of my own misbehavior. I've been blessed. Usually, the darkness lingers long enough for me to ask myself, what will God say about how little I've done with all those gifts. Then I remember what a fellow told me years ago about how pitifully inadequate and offensive any of us will be, standing before God, and that's why we must be washed in the blood of the Savior when we come before Him, and that will cover the repellent scars and disfigurations of our souls, and He will see us only as the beloved of his Son and will accept us into His kingdom. Then the peace and joy we know will be measured by how devoted we were to the Lord in our lifetime. I guess that's why the saints and prophets kept praying to God to make them more devoted. I have a long way to go, but sometimes it seems like less of a struggle than at others.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Sunday, December 28, 2008
The World
In case you didn't hear it in the news, the court in Thailand decreed that the PPP party is an illegal organization, sparing the army and the king the odious ask of overturning the election results. I'm not sure whether it was the Constitutional Court or the Supreme Court or why they have two highest courts in the first place. But in any event the city mice won.
Israel is bombing those Hamas folks in Gaza. A less subtle way of dealing with election results you're not happy about than the Thais concocted. I trust that Hamas has been as busy diging tunnels in Gaza as Hezbollah was in Southern Lebanon. Tragically, the "incidence of collateral damages" (ie dead Palestian civilians) will be very high, but acceptable to the Israeli proponents of collective punishment.
Israel is bombing those Hamas folks in Gaza. A less subtle way of dealing with election results you're not happy about than the Thais concocted. I trust that Hamas has been as busy diging tunnels in Gaza as Hezbollah was in Southern Lebanon. Tragically, the "incidence of collateral damages" (ie dead Palestian civilians) will be very high, but acceptable to the Israeli proponents of collective punishment.
Darn market.
I thought TRAD was boring. CERN is equally so. I'm not giving up, but I'm placing a sell order contingent on the stock rising to 40, just over the current price (just in case this goofy market rallies this week). And while I'm at it I'm going to buy a call on Devon Energy. They own a lot of oil and natural gas resources and if there is a rally, energy stocks should benefit. The stock has been bouncing back and forth between 60 and 75 and is now at 64: another trade for which it's easy to figure where to place a stop loss order. I hate being long and short the same market, but I'm not being ambivalent, the market is.
.
We had a really nice Christmas
Janett and I went with Steffy and the boys to my sister Mary's house Christmas Eve, and Kim and Ross were there as well as several of my brothers, and my nephews and nieces. We were all happy to be together, and Janett's appetizers (pastrami and smoked provolone rolled up in flat bread with a little honey mustard) was a big hit.
John had drawn us in the gift lottery and came through with a generous gift certificate for Red Lobster/Olive Garden, which will insure that Janett gets her birthday lobster next month and provide another special night out as well. His labor of love was downloading the complete set of Rolling Stone Magazines 500 top rock and roll songs onto CD's for us.
Christmas morning Janett and I tidied up around here and she finished up a big crock pot of barbecued pork for sandwiches on buns. Oh yeah, the featured side dish was a potato casserole, one of three that John had brought to Mary's. This one didn't get to the buffet table and John offered it to anyone who would like to take it home. Janett stepped right up. It was excellent. Thin sliced potatoes boiled in half milk and half water before baking, Janett told me, but really well seasoned and tasty. I didn't get that part of the recipe.
Then Jason and Dee came with Joey, Lauren and Noah came from her parents home in Algonquin where they'd arrived the previous evening after an arduous drive from Champaign, Steffy and Mark and the boys with our friend Calvin rounded out the crowd. We ate and exchanged gifts and had fun.
Kimbo was not feeling well and she and Ross stayed home, so mid-afternoon Janett and Steffy took Owen to visit them in Lombard. Jason and Dee headed to her family party with Joey, and Lauren and Noah started their trek back to Champaign. Calvin and Mark took Malachy to a movie; the cartoon feature, I think, with the little mouse with big ears.
I laid down on the couch and watched a CD Steffie had given me, 3:10 to Yuma, and napped a little bit.
My religious observance of the day had been earlier, while taking garbage out.
The morning was beautifully cold and white, with clear blue sky, and very still. One could not help but pause to thank God for all his gifts to us and especially the gift of the precious Infant.
Everyone else smiled. Joey, Mally and I said "CHEESE!"
Janett and the girls with Owen.
John had drawn us in the gift lottery and came through with a generous gift certificate for Red Lobster/Olive Garden, which will insure that Janett gets her birthday lobster next month and provide another special night out as well. His labor of love was downloading the complete set of Rolling Stone Magazines 500 top rock and roll songs onto CD's for us.
Christmas morning Janett and I tidied up around here and she finished up a big crock pot of barbecued pork for sandwiches on buns. Oh yeah, the featured side dish was a potato casserole, one of three that John had brought to Mary's. This one didn't get to the buffet table and John offered it to anyone who would like to take it home. Janett stepped right up. It was excellent. Thin sliced potatoes boiled in half milk and half water before baking, Janett told me, but really well seasoned and tasty. I didn't get that part of the recipe.
Then Jason and Dee came with Joey, Lauren and Noah came from her parents home in Algonquin where they'd arrived the previous evening after an arduous drive from Champaign, Steffy and Mark and the boys with our friend Calvin rounded out the crowd. We ate and exchanged gifts and had fun.
Kimbo was not feeling well and she and Ross stayed home, so mid-afternoon Janett and Steffy took Owen to visit them in Lombard. Jason and Dee headed to her family party with Joey, and Lauren and Noah started their trek back to Champaign. Calvin and Mark took Malachy to a movie; the cartoon feature, I think, with the little mouse with big ears.
I laid down on the couch and watched a CD Steffie had given me, 3:10 to Yuma, and napped a little bit.
My religious observance of the day had been earlier, while taking garbage out.
The morning was beautifully cold and white, with clear blue sky, and very still. One could not help but pause to thank God for all his gifts to us and especially the gift of the precious Infant.
Everyone else smiled. Joey, Mally and I said "CHEESE!"
Janett and the girls with Owen.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
Trusting the Twigg
The market was mixed today, but downish overall. So I'm going to try to buy a put in the morning. My buy order is in a little below the asked price, but a little above today's closing price. If I don't get a fill, that's OK. Cerner Inc is the company. They provide lab services to hospitals and doctor's offices. But the chart is the thing. The stock has not been able to get over 40 in a couple of tries and should now back down a little. My secret weapon, the Twigg's Money Flow just slipped into the negative, so we'll give it a try. Wish me luck.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
I closed my Trad out Friday with a small loss ($60)
I'll keep my eye on the stock, but last week it was like watching paint dry. That's OK, because I didn't go short and buy any of those expensive puts, on which I'd be down several hundred right now. I was prepared to try to make a little money on the upside, but the Christmas rally seems to lack conviction. There may be another little rally around inauguation time, but I now think the market will grind lower for a couple of weeks. Yeaterday I looked over some stocks to find candidates for shorting this week at less cost.
Sometimes you just can't be sure which way the market is going to move and one has to wait patiently for more compeliing indications in order to feel 60 to 70 percent confidence in a decision. Like Chuck Norris, I don't sleep, I wait.
Sometimes you just can't be sure which way the market is going to move and one has to wait patiently for more compeliing indications in order to feel 60 to 70 percent confidence in a decision. Like Chuck Norris, I don't sleep, I wait.
When I was looking for Christmas art
I started with Raphael. I kmow he's great, but not vivid enough for me. I fear I lack sophistication or maturity. What do you all think? This is definitely one of his more animated compositions.
To lighten up a little and to help you understand
how I'm able to ponder all the depressing stuff without succumbing, I thought I'd post a few pictures from Steffies blog of two of my grandsons. Malachy and little brother Owen meeting with Santa, Owen with Uncles Jase and Noah, and Owen with proud papa Mark. I'll also post another shot of the adorable Malachy, so I don't seem to be favoring the baby. But I've already confessed that I'm struck by Owen's poise and equanimity. I find him amazing.
CSPAN has Lou Cannon's son on this morning. He
works for the Reader's Digest. He has a lot of nice things to say about Ronald Reagan. I think I saw a list that featured Reagan as one of the three best presidents. Reagan was facile and spoke like Jimmy Stewart if Congressman Smith had made it to the White House. But he was the friend of the rich and the powerful and therefore the enemy of the working class. Today's economic malaise results from Reagan's tax polices. If chief executives and investment bankers only got to keep 10% of their income in excess of 250,000, the heartless export of American jobs and financial chicanery on Wall Street would not have occurred. The financial incentive wouldn't have been sufficient to over-ride traditional moral and social principles. Remember the euphimism "down-sizing" was coined during the Reagan years.
Internationally, he was a criminal. His administration broke domestic and international law by selling weapons to the Iranians to fight Iraq. He allowed Israel to transfer US provided weaponry to Iran and make a nice profit and receive more up to date replacements. Reagan and Bush used the net proceeds to fund the Contras in Nicaragua, a disgraceful act of war on a struggling democracy. The brutal and indiscriminate killing of poor peasants in Latin America has been one of the most shameful episodes in modern American history. And the administration supplemented the Iran funds with profits on cocaine the CIA flew out on the same aircraft they used to fly weapons in. While George Bush, the former CIA chief, was more hands on these policies, that circumstance was designed to allow President Papa Noel to cloak himself in culpable deniabilty. Reagan knew exactly what he was doing when he selected Bush as his running mate. Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld were all involved in these programs, and also in programs providing Iraq in the early eighties the chemical-biological technologies which they all were so worried about 10years later. Here's a more informed write-up (starting around p 302)
Oh, and the one great success attributed to Reagan was winning the cold war. We didn't win it. Russia lost it, by bankrupting thmselves in their ten year campaign in Afghanistan. (Sound familiar?) The USSR was broke and demoralized when Lech Walesa, a union leader, with the support of a Polish pope rejected Soviet hegemony.
Sorry to have to issue so strident a denunciation at time of good will and grace. I simply have to set the record straight in so far as I am able. Now CSpan is carrying the current President's address to the American Enterprise Institue on the "Universality of Freedom." God help the American people.
Internationally, he was a criminal. His administration broke domestic and international law by selling weapons to the Iranians to fight Iraq. He allowed Israel to transfer US provided weaponry to Iran and make a nice profit and receive more up to date replacements. Reagan and Bush used the net proceeds to fund the Contras in Nicaragua, a disgraceful act of war on a struggling democracy. The brutal and indiscriminate killing of poor peasants in Latin America has been one of the most shameful episodes in modern American history. And the administration supplemented the Iran funds with profits on cocaine the CIA flew out on the same aircraft they used to fly weapons in. While George Bush, the former CIA chief, was more hands on these policies, that circumstance was designed to allow President Papa Noel to cloak himself in culpable deniabilty. Reagan knew exactly what he was doing when he selected Bush as his running mate. Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld were all involved in these programs, and also in programs providing Iraq in the early eighties the chemical-biological technologies which they all were so worried about 10years later. Here's a more informed write-up (starting around p 302)
Oh, and the one great success attributed to Reagan was winning the cold war. We didn't win it. Russia lost it, by bankrupting thmselves in their ten year campaign in Afghanistan. (Sound familiar?) The USSR was broke and demoralized when Lech Walesa, a union leader, with the support of a Polish pope rejected Soviet hegemony.
Sorry to have to issue so strident a denunciation at time of good will and grace. I simply have to set the record straight in so far as I am able. Now CSpan is carrying the current President's address to the American Enterprise Institue on the "Universality of Freedom." God help the American people.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Is the full moon still here?
It's been weird and not all good around here.
Driving home last night my '94 Nissan broke, with finality. All of a sudden the engine started clattering and stopped running. I coasted down an off ramp from 290 West to 83 south and pulled over, and started calling for help. Janett would have tried to come, but I was afraid she'd have trouble. (She's not real good with expressway driving) So she reached our oldest boy Jason and he started out from his home in near Mount Prospect. Meanwhile I was unhappy about my car and getting cold. After 40 minutes help started arriving at ten minute intervals, an IDOT truck, a state police trooper, the tow truck and Jason. Jason gave me a lift home and the car went to Nissan heaven.
This morning Janett and I went to the bank and cashed out a CD early and she brought me a 2001 Park Avenue for $4,000. I'll drive it until it gives up the ghost, but I'll try to remember to get regular oil changes to postpone that inevitable.
Then I spoke with the Nissan's funeral director and he said the remains couldn't be disposed of without a signed over title. Well, as you may know, we've moved three times in the past 5 years, and if the title isn't in the glove compartment, which it wasn't, I wouldn't know where it was. So now I have to get a duplicate title and try to appeal to the undertaker's sense of professional courtesy when I inform him it might take a couple weeks to get a new title.
At least the running around today kept me from going to work, and enduring a monstrous commute home. But I'm a day further behind at work and we're running out of year.
So Deck and Trad were down Monday and up today. Given the market's reaction to the fed's announcement today, I think going long with a cheapie was an OK approach,
Now I'm going to watch Hercule Poirot on WYSE. I like all the art deco accoutrements.
Driving home last night my '94 Nissan broke, with finality. All of a sudden the engine started clattering and stopped running. I coasted down an off ramp from 290 West to 83 south and pulled over, and started calling for help. Janett would have tried to come, but I was afraid she'd have trouble. (She's not real good with expressway driving) So she reached our oldest boy Jason and he started out from his home in near Mount Prospect. Meanwhile I was unhappy about my car and getting cold. After 40 minutes help started arriving at ten minute intervals, an IDOT truck, a state police trooper, the tow truck and Jason. Jason gave me a lift home and the car went to Nissan heaven.
This morning Janett and I went to the bank and cashed out a CD early and she brought me a 2001 Park Avenue for $4,000. I'll drive it until it gives up the ghost, but I'll try to remember to get regular oil changes to postpone that inevitable.
Then I spoke with the Nissan's funeral director and he said the remains couldn't be disposed of without a signed over title. Well, as you may know, we've moved three times in the past 5 years, and if the title isn't in the glove compartment, which it wasn't, I wouldn't know where it was. So now I have to get a duplicate title and try to appeal to the undertaker's sense of professional courtesy when I inform him it might take a couple weeks to get a new title.
At least the running around today kept me from going to work, and enduring a monstrous commute home. But I'm a day further behind at work and we're running out of year.
So Deck and Trad were down Monday and up today. Given the market's reaction to the fed's announcement today, I think going long with a cheapie was an OK approach,
Now I'm going to watch Hercule Poirot on WYSE. I like all the art deco accoutrements.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Sidelines
I'm not going to enter into a trade tonight. Maybe Wednesday after Janett's Dr's appointment my mind will be clear enough to act with confidence. Tonight I would be in doubt as to whether to go long Trade Station, an online broker with growing volume and profits, down to $5.75 from $14.50 a year ago. They're sitting on $7 a share in cash. Or to short Decker Outdoors, a shoe company with popular brands (Teva, Simple and UGG). Currently at $66 up from $50 last week, but still I think in a downtrend (from $165 a year ago). Similar range to that other short candidate, Chipotle.
Thing, is a call on Trade Station at $5 would cost me less than a hundred bucks, and the stok price would only have to go up $0.25 for me to be profitable, and if the stock goes up a dollar per share, I'd make over $200 on a $300 speculation. But a put on Decker cost $950. The stock would have to drop $9 per share for me to be ahead on the trade. So what's more likely, Trad to go up $1 (20%) or Deck to drop $12 (20%), or both, or neither? I just don't know, so I'd probably go with the cheaper trade, but that could be doing the wrong thing for the wrong reason. So we'll just watch how it plays out for a few days and maybe have a better idea which way to go next time.
PS It's 2 hours later, and I've placed an order to buy a couple Trad calls. It's only couple hundred dollars. What the heck.
Thing, is a call on Trade Station at $5 would cost me less than a hundred bucks, and the stok price would only have to go up $0.25 for me to be profitable, and if the stock goes up a dollar per share, I'd make over $200 on a $300 speculation. But a put on Decker cost $950. The stock would have to drop $9 per share for me to be ahead on the trade. So what's more likely, Trad to go up $1 (20%) or Deck to drop $12 (20%), or both, or neither? I just don't know, so I'd probably go with the cheaper trade, but that could be doing the wrong thing for the wrong reason. So we'll just watch how it plays out for a few days and maybe have a better idea which way to go next time.
PS It's 2 hours later, and I've placed an order to buy a couple Trad calls. It's only couple hundred dollars. What the heck.
The Little King
'The Little King has been enthroned as the Great King of the world to assist His subjects in their trials, difficulties, and crosses. He Who Himself has suffered so much desires to assist those who come to Him. He wishes to attract all hearts to His own through the attractiveness and simplicity of His Divine Infancy.'
Auto Industry
Hi Kim,
I think the problems are too big for a fifty billion or maybe even a hundred billion loan to get them through the next year and a half, and the bailout won't prevent massive layoffs in that period. Production and sales will be so curtailed that a lot of the suppliers and dealers are going to go out of business. So what good would it do?
I don't blame the unions for saying that they only contribute 10% of the car's cost. If they took a 50% cut and cars were 5% cheaper, would prople be buying? I think bankruptcies will happen and I guess I'd rether see them happen sooner rather than later, because we'll need the bailout money to help the unemployed and the needy. Things are going to get worse. The autmobile companies are getting all the attention, but in these economic circumstances, a lot of businesses will be going bankrupt, and I think the government knows they can't keep bailing out business (including the bankers). They just don't know how or where to draw the line. I also don't know who owns all the bonds and who will suffer from defaults. But, at least, that way the workers wll have the comfort of knowing that the execs, lenders, and vendors will share their pain. 2 of the car companies, with their debt diminished, and new exes making better plans can emerge viable if smaller and potentially grow from there.
What will happen to the unions? I think they'll still represent the workers and have to negotiate and accept lower wages and benefits, but they can't accept big cuts before the negotiatons. The workers would feel they'd been sold out - and still face the layoff of half the workers and eventually, all of them anyway.
I think the problems are too big for a fifty billion or maybe even a hundred billion loan to get them through the next year and a half, and the bailout won't prevent massive layoffs in that period. Production and sales will be so curtailed that a lot of the suppliers and dealers are going to go out of business. So what good would it do?
I don't blame the unions for saying that they only contribute 10% of the car's cost. If they took a 50% cut and cars were 5% cheaper, would prople be buying? I think bankruptcies will happen and I guess I'd rether see them happen sooner rather than later, because we'll need the bailout money to help the unemployed and the needy. Things are going to get worse. The autmobile companies are getting all the attention, but in these economic circumstances, a lot of businesses will be going bankrupt, and I think the government knows they can't keep bailing out business (including the bankers). They just don't know how or where to draw the line. I also don't know who owns all the bonds and who will suffer from defaults. But, at least, that way the workers wll have the comfort of knowing that the execs, lenders, and vendors will share their pain. 2 of the car companies, with their debt diminished, and new exes making better plans can emerge viable if smaller and potentially grow from there.
What will happen to the unions? I think they'll still represent the workers and have to negotiate and accept lower wages and benefits, but they can't accept big cuts before the negotiatons. The workers would feel they'd been sold out - and still face the layoff of half the workers and eventually, all of them anyway.
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