Facebook page, "With all this horse shit, there must be a pony in here somewhere."
This was the funnest link I found, a pagan 12 stepper.
ALCOHOLICS ANONYMOUS AND THE NEO-PAGAN
by: "the Bard"
GODDESS: Grant me the SERENITY to accept the things I cannot change,
the COURAGE to change the things I can,
and the WISDOM to know the difference.....!
-the Serenity Prayer
*
Aw, f**k it!
-Serenity Prayer (short form)
*
(DISCLAIMER: the opinions in this article are my own, and should not, and
must not, be taken as necessarily the opinions of AA as a whole. AA does
NOT endorse ANY specific religious belief. To quote the standard definition:
"AA is not allied with any sect, denomination, politics, organization or
institution; does not wish to engage in any controversy, neither endorses or
opposes any causes. Our primary purpose is to stay sober and help other
alcoholics to achieve sobriety." GOT THAT?)
*
JUSTIFICATION 101
Taoists say, "Shit happens."
Buddhists say, "If shit happens, it's not really shit."
Zen says, "What is the sound of shit happening?"
Hindus say, "This shit happened before."
Muslims say, "If shit happens, Allah wills it."
Protestants say, "If shit happens, let it happen to someone else."
Catholics say, "If shit happens, you deserve it."
Fundies say, "If shit happens, the Devil did it!"
Jews say, "Why does shit always happen to us?"
Baha'is say, "If shit happens, it's a Spiritual Experience!"
Wiccans say, "There's gotta be a pony in here someplace!"
*
Alcoholics don't take lovers...they take hostages.
*
"Hi! My name's "the Bard," and I'm a grateful alcoholic and Recovering
Anglican."
(Hi, Bard!)
Now, for those lucky ones of you that are reading this who are -not-
drunks.....maybe none of this applies to you, tho you could perhaps learn
something from it. Just bear in mind that if you haven't "been there," then
you don't truly understand what it's like. Try to bear with us; we're not
finished yet...
*
Probably the best way to start is to talk about the Twelve Steps of
AA....and comment on them from a Pagan point of view. Being Pagan doesn't
make us any better that anyone else, but it does affect our view of the
Universe. Being alcoholics, however, we will tend to do what every other
alky does, and start logic-chopping and complicating even the simplest things
into utterly unrecognizable impossibilties...and when we do -that- we can
say to ourselves, "It's too hard for me. I can't do that."
Keep it SIMPLE, stupid!
A question to think about: To properly work magick, you must be in
full possession of your faculties. You think you can work magick -drunk-?
HAH! That's kinda like giving an armed nuke to a three-year old child.....
Maybe it'll work out OK, and then again.......odds are pretty good that you'll
get a BIG hole in the ground REAL soon!
Another question to think about: do you wonder, sometimes, if you
maybe -are- an alcoholic? Well, ole hoss, if you gotta wonder about it, then
you probably are.......alcoholism is a DISEASE. It is -not- an immoral defect
in you. It is NOT a "failing." It is simply a disease, and there is NO cure.
There is, however, a way to recover from it. Read on!
*
STEP ONE: We admitted that we were powerless over alcohol - that our lives
had become unmanageable.
This one is pretty obvious, and doesn't need a lot of comment. It
applies the same to the Fundie as it does to the Pagan. If you
just can't handle alcohol, you just can't handle it. Period.
STEP TWO: Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore
us to sanity.
What is the Goddess/God -but- a "power" greater than ourselves?
There IS a "Higher Power." Call it what you will. Call it God,
call it Goddess, call it Ralph, if you wanna, but it IS there,
and surrendering your EGO to it is necessary for it to work.
Brad Hicks said that "Nothing so chokes Magick as EGO," and he
was right!
STEP THREE: Made a decision to turn our will and our lives over to the care
of God, as we understood Him.
Now, PAY ATTENTION! It says "as we understood.." Yeah, it says
"God" and "Him." So what? This was written to reach out to people.
Ya want it to say "Goddess" and "Her?" FINE! Say it that way to
yourself. I know a guy that said "Ralph" and "It." Worked fine!
-Don't- get hung up in semantics. You got an agenda, take it
somewhere else. You bring it into AA, and you'll stay drunk.
I notice that fella in the third row right is having problems with
the semantics here...he's associating "God" (or "Higher Power")
with that Big Fella with the Long White Beard that sits up in the
Great White Throne of Judgement and writes down everything bad you
do so He can punish you for it. I thought we had thrown out that
concept of the Punishing God! We ain't talking Fundie here, boy!
By "ego" I do not mean your free will. This you have. This you will
always have. I mean surrendering that part of you that sits in the
corner and screams defiance at an uncaring world. The "child-self,"
if you will. "Child" is selfish, uncaring, and manipulative. These
are things we need to recover -from-. "Child" will manipulate by many
techniques, one of which being "people pleasing." (We need to recover
from -that-, too.)
Besides, if you are a practicing alky, your "will" consists mainly of
finding a way to get drunk. Pbflth! That ain't "will." That's an
addiction.
STEP FOUR: Made a searching and fearless moral inventory of ourselves.
OOPS! Here's a hard one! That icky buzzword "moral!" I hear a
LOT from Wiccans about the differences between "morals" and
"ethics." Frankly, if the actions/attitudes are harmful, then they
can be called immoral/unethical. "An ye harm NONE, do what ye will."
If your actions hurt someone, YOU need to realize it, and admit it.
See the next step. Logic-chopping at this point will only get you
into trouble. If you wanna read "ethics" for "morals," go right
ahead....just be honest with yourself. As a practicing alky, you've
lied to yourself long enough.
STEP FIVE: Admitted to God, to ourselves, and to another human being the
exact nature of our wrongs.
So tell the Goddess (or Ralph) your problems with dealing with
life, liberty and the pursuit of tapioca pudding. Tell it to
yourself, too. GET A SPONSOR and talk to them about it. Pretty
simple, really.
STEP SIX: Were entirely ready to have God remove all these defects of
character.
Talk to your sponsor about this one. The Goddess (or Ralph) will
do it, if you can get out from behind your own EGO long enough to
let it happen....
STEP SEVEN: Humbly asked Him to remove our shortcomings.
Notice it says..."humbly." Contrary to the belief of -every-
single alky I've ever known, we are NOT the Center Of The
Universe.
As amazing as it may sound, the Goddess runs the Multi-verse quite
well on Her own. -You- can't even handle alcohol on your own, so
what makes you think you can run the Multi-verse?
STEP EIGHT: Made a list of all persons we had harmed, and became willing to
make amends to them all.
Yeah, I know, Karma has taken care of it. But that's on the level
of the whole Multi-verse. Make your list. This helps you to admit
to yourself (see the steps above) just where you were being a jerk.
Notice also it says "...became willing..." This does not mean "made
amends." It means you are WILLING, sincerely willing, to make those
amends. Karma has already stomped on you, if you think about it, but
for your own growth you MUST cop to this.
STEP NINE: Made direct amends to such people wherever possible, except when
to do so would injure them or others.
This is pretty obvious, don't you think? You got questions about
this, ask your sponsor.
STEP TEN: Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong
promptly admitted it.
"I thought I had made a misteak once, but I was wrong."
(Good epitaph for anyone who died drunk! You die drunk, you stay
drunk next time around, until you get the message...you wanna do
that, go right ahead. Call me when you become teachable.)
It's always pretty hard to admit to making a mistake...Wiccans and
other neo-Pagans are no different than anyone else about that one.
STEP ELEVEN: Sought thru prayer and meditation to improve our conscious
contact with God as we understood Him, praying only for
knowledge of His Will for us and the power to carry that out.
No problem here for Pagans, is there? I mean after all, isn't
this exactly what we're trying to do in the first place? You
ain't gonna do diddely-squat with magick without the Higher
Power, anyway.....and this step is a doggone good lesson in
what real magick -really- is all about. Think about it for a
while.
It is your Will that wants you to get sober. It is your EGO that
keeps you drinking, along with the physical "allergy." Take that
EGO, that spoiled child-self, and turn it over to the Goddess. Or
Ralph.
STEP TWELVE: Having had a spiritual awakening as the result of these steps,
we tried to carry this message to alcoholics and to practice
these principles in all our affairs.
So whattya think I'm -doing- here ?
*
Just for funsies, let's look at those steps in -reverse-......
***************************************************************
THE 12 STEPS IN REVERSE
SUCCESSFUL RULES FOR THE SELF-DESTRUCTION OF THE ALCOHOLIC
1. I stated that I could handle liquor and/or drugs, and I was master
of my fate.
2. Firmly believed that I was entirely rational and sane in every
respect.
3. Made a decision to run my own life and be successful in all my
undertakings.
4. Made a searching and thorough inventory of my fellow man and found
him wanting.
5. Admitted to no one, including God and myself, that there was
anything wrong with me.
6. Sought through alcohol and/or drugs to overcome my responsibilities
and escape the realities of life.
7. Got drunk/stoned to remove these shortcomings.
8. Made a list of all persons who had harmed me, whether imaginary or
real, and swore to get even.
9. Got even whenever possible, except when to do so would injure me.
10. Continued to find fault with the world and with the people in it,
and when I was right, promptly admitted it.
11. Sought through conniving and hypocrisy to improve myself
materially at the expense of my fellow man as I misunderstood him,
asking only for the means to get and stay drunk or stoned and escape
from reality.
12. After having a complete moral, physical and financial breakdown, I
tried to drag those who were dear to me down to my level, and to
practice these reasonings in all my affairs.
*******************************************************************
Well?
It may be that you are still a practicing alcoholic. You are still
drinking and drugging and making everyone around you miserable. I won't
preach to you. If that's what you want to do, then that's fine with me.
That's -your- problem, not mine. I am dealing with -me-, today, not with
you.
When you hit bottom, whatever that may be to you, whether it is
winding up in the drunk tank, or squatting in a corner with DT's, or
being thrown thru the roof of a car at 65 MPH (and surviving it), or having
blackouts, or losing everything you have, or, Goddess forbid, killing some
one else with your car.....and the Goddess FINALLY gets your attention,
then remember that AA is out there, and CAN help you.
Call your local Central Office, and get the location, date and
time of a meeting near you. If you need a ride to it, they'll be glad to
help out. Get a copy of the Big Book, and read it.
Go to meetings. Read the Big Book. You don't even have to -say-
anything in meetings. Just sit there and listen for a while, if that's
what you feel you need to do.....but GO TO THE DAMN MEETINGS!
This is being published, initially, over BBSes. Your local BBS,
if it is FIDONET, may carry the RECOVERY echo. It is available on the
backbone, and can be brought in by your local SysOp. Ask for it. Read it.
It's for -you-.
*
Blessed Be!
Sober, one day at a time:
-the Bard
Yule, 1990 CE
A nice way to stay in touch with loved ones, and a convenient way to share my opinions without having everyone just walk away...wait a minute, where are you going? I wasn't finished..
Monday, May 25, 2009
Saturday, May 23, 2009
MMDW
Memorial Day week-end. I just spoke with Jose. His wife has plans for him today so we're not opening the office again till Tuesday AM. Sweet.
I was looking at the article I posted yesterday. I selected it for the interesting chart of the HUI. an index of 25 mining stocks. I previously glanced over the author's reference to a previous article. I'll try to find that article and maybe post it. Right now I'm just considering the author's illustrative factoids that the entire population of the world could fit standing up in the city of Detroit, in townhouses in the state of Texas (4 persons per townhouse), or in Australia with 4 persons sharing each acre. I'm going for the Australia option, and putting in dibs now on beachfront in Sidney.
This idea is unintentionally tangential to the concept or redistribution of resources. Suppose you could oversee a pooling of all the wealth in the world, including personal assets such as automobiles, apparel, and furnishings, and all financial assets including cash on hand and in accounts as well as real estate holdings, stocks and other equity interests and bonds or other receivables, (net of debt) and then redistribute the wealth ratably to each and all the persons in the world. -Obviously, you'd have to safeguard with tax legislation against the table being tilted to allow the wealth to flow back into the hands of the clever few within a generation. Also, I know some of us suspect there would be those who would idly dissipate their gratuitous wealth (me, for instance). We'd have to pass a law against that as well.
But my question is how much wealth per person; parent, grandparent, child, whoever would you exempt from the initial confiscation?
I intended this to be purely a philosophical enquiry, but in case you're interested here are some world-wide statistics. This study done for 2000 shows that 2% of adults own over 50% of the world's wealth. I'm confident the imbalance is even more profound now.
I was looking at the article I posted yesterday. I selected it for the interesting chart of the HUI. an index of 25 mining stocks. I previously glanced over the author's reference to a previous article. I'll try to find that article and maybe post it. Right now I'm just considering the author's illustrative factoids that the entire population of the world could fit standing up in the city of Detroit, in townhouses in the state of Texas (4 persons per townhouse), or in Australia with 4 persons sharing each acre. I'm going for the Australia option, and putting in dibs now on beachfront in Sidney.
This idea is unintentionally tangential to the concept or redistribution of resources. Suppose you could oversee a pooling of all the wealth in the world, including personal assets such as automobiles, apparel, and furnishings, and all financial assets including cash on hand and in accounts as well as real estate holdings, stocks and other equity interests and bonds or other receivables, (net of debt) and then redistribute the wealth ratably to each and all the persons in the world. -Obviously, you'd have to safeguard with tax legislation against the table being tilted to allow the wealth to flow back into the hands of the clever few within a generation. Also, I know some of us suspect there would be those who would idly dissipate their gratuitous wealth (me, for instance). We'd have to pass a law against that as well.
But my question is how much wealth per person; parent, grandparent, child, whoever would you exempt from the initial confiscation?
I intended this to be purely a philosophical enquiry, but in case you're interested here are some world-wide statistics. This study done for 2000 shows that 2% of adults own over 50% of the world's wealth. I'm confident the imbalance is even more profound now.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Gold - again
My post yesterday got me to thinking, so I went to Financial Sense (see links) which I don't think I've visited 3 times in the last year. Sure enough, gold is warming up.
All Eyes Are On Huey!
by Peter Degraaf | May 12, 2009
The HUI index is poised to break out above 350. The importance of this breakout is evident in the following chart.

Featured is the daily HUI index of gold and silver stocks.
In the event of a breakout at the green arrow (which now appears to be underway), the result will be a very strong ‘up-move’ as all that pent-up demand below 350 becomes unstuck.
The pattern is an inverted ‘head and shoulders’ formation with the neckline at 350.
The RSI and MACD are positive (green lines).
Assuming the breakout succeeds - the target is 550!
On the fundamental side, we have a US government deficit that is clearly out of control.
In the words of William Black, associate professor of Economics at the University of Missouri: “We have ‘failed bankers’ giving advice to ’failed regulators’ on how to deal with ‘failed assets’”.
The US Budget Office estimates the 2009 budget deficit at 1.8 trillion dollars or four times the 2008 record deficit. We’re talking ‘monetary inflation in spades’! While it can be said that it takes time for monetary inflation to turn into price inflation, you can be sure that more and more investors are going to anticipate whopping price inflation.
Such price inflation will result in increased demand for gold and silver, and the stock of companies that produce gold and silver.
Even at 1.8 trillion dollars, the US Budget Office is making certain assumptions regarding tax receipts.
It is the ‘nature of the beast’ that during a recession, not only do tax receipts decline, but the demands on government on the part of unemployed persons increase dramatically.
Think of the letter “Y”, with the tops of the Y rising steadily. One side is less revenue and the other side is increased demands. ‘Never the twain shall meet.’
In my last article I lamented the fact that Mr. Obama made it a priority to sign legislation that exports abortion to foreign countries at American taxpayer expense.
I pointed this out to show that the President is not a compassionate individual. After all he chose death over life! He has voted for abortions right up to the 9th month after conception. Abortion is the scourge of a society. It eliminates the very people who will be needed to support the aging population. Honestly now do you really wish that your mother had decided to abort you?
Historically, when the birthrate falls below 2.5 children per couple, that society is slowly doomed to extinction, except for immigration!
The current US rate is about 2.1 children per couple, with some sources claiming a rate even lower than that. The reason 2.1 children per couple is not sufficient is because a certain number of children die before marriage, and others never marry. Therefore the number soon drops below the magic ‘2’.
As an aside, the Muslim clergymen understand this principle and they encourage a high birth rate, while forbidding abortions.
I received a lot of E-mails as a result of my observation. Most of them agreed with my position, but a few did not. Among the people who disagreed, were some who are worried that we are becoming overpopulated.
It is for these people that I present the following facts:
All of the human beings alive today can stand up in the city of Detroit!
All of the human beings alive today, grouped into fours can have a townhouse in Texas!
All of the human beings alive today, grouped by four can have a home with an acre of land in Australia!
Some of you are worried we will run out of resources.
In the mid 19th century, people were worried that the world was running out of whale oil. Then in 1858 someone in Oil Springs Ontario Canada, dug the first commercial oil well, to be followed a year later by the oil discovery at Titusville, PA.
The world is not likely to ever run out of resources. Even crude oil, which is today being used up 5 times faster than new discoveries are made, is actually a constantly renewing resource. No doubt we will have to switch from one resource to another, but that is what makes life exciting, and it creates opportunities for entrepreneurs.
Copyright © 2009 Peter Degraaf
Editorial Archive
All Eyes Are On Huey!
by Peter Degraaf | May 12, 2009
The HUI index is poised to break out above 350. The importance of this breakout is evident in the following chart.

Featured is the daily HUI index of gold and silver stocks.
In the event of a breakout at the green arrow (which now appears to be underway), the result will be a very strong ‘up-move’ as all that pent-up demand below 350 becomes unstuck.
The pattern is an inverted ‘head and shoulders’ formation with the neckline at 350.
The RSI and MACD are positive (green lines).
Assuming the breakout succeeds - the target is 550!
On the fundamental side, we have a US government deficit that is clearly out of control.
In the words of William Black, associate professor of Economics at the University of Missouri: “We have ‘failed bankers’ giving advice to ’failed regulators’ on how to deal with ‘failed assets’”.
The US Budget Office estimates the 2009 budget deficit at 1.8 trillion dollars or four times the 2008 record deficit. We’re talking ‘monetary inflation in spades’! While it can be said that it takes time for monetary inflation to turn into price inflation, you can be sure that more and more investors are going to anticipate whopping price inflation.
Such price inflation will result in increased demand for gold and silver, and the stock of companies that produce gold and silver.
Even at 1.8 trillion dollars, the US Budget Office is making certain assumptions regarding tax receipts.
It is the ‘nature of the beast’ that during a recession, not only do tax receipts decline, but the demands on government on the part of unemployed persons increase dramatically.
Think of the letter “Y”, with the tops of the Y rising steadily. One side is less revenue and the other side is increased demands. ‘Never the twain shall meet.’
In my last article I lamented the fact that Mr. Obama made it a priority to sign legislation that exports abortion to foreign countries at American taxpayer expense.
I pointed this out to show that the President is not a compassionate individual. After all he chose death over life! He has voted for abortions right up to the 9th month after conception. Abortion is the scourge of a society. It eliminates the very people who will be needed to support the aging population. Honestly now do you really wish that your mother had decided to abort you?
Historically, when the birthrate falls below 2.5 children per couple, that society is slowly doomed to extinction, except for immigration!
The current US rate is about 2.1 children per couple, with some sources claiming a rate even lower than that. The reason 2.1 children per couple is not sufficient is because a certain number of children die before marriage, and others never marry. Therefore the number soon drops below the magic ‘2’.
As an aside, the Muslim clergymen understand this principle and they encourage a high birth rate, while forbidding abortions.
I received a lot of E-mails as a result of my observation. Most of them agreed with my position, but a few did not. Among the people who disagreed, were some who are worried that we are becoming overpopulated.
It is for these people that I present the following facts:
All of the human beings alive today can stand up in the city of Detroit!
All of the human beings alive today, grouped into fours can have a townhouse in Texas!
All of the human beings alive today, grouped by four can have a home with an acre of land in Australia!
Some of you are worried we will run out of resources.
In the mid 19th century, people were worried that the world was running out of whale oil. Then in 1858 someone in Oil Springs Ontario Canada, dug the first commercial oil well, to be followed a year later by the oil discovery at Titusville, PA.
The world is not likely to ever run out of resources. Even crude oil, which is today being used up 5 times faster than new discoveries are made, is actually a constantly renewing resource. No doubt we will have to switch from one resource to another, but that is what makes life exciting, and it creates opportunities for entrepreneurs.
Copyright © 2009 Peter Degraaf
Editorial Archive
Thursday, May 21, 2009
What does it all mean?
You can read this article or not.
It would probably just confuse you as much as it has me.
The Federal Reserve Bank has loaned 2 trillion dollars since September 2008.
These loans are distinct from the $700 billion TARP "bail out", and is tracked and managed even worse than the TARP funds have been. The Fed doesn't want to say who they loaned the money to, or what collateral they received, or how that collateral was valued. See clip
Basic accounting is for a bank to record loans made as the bank's assets, and customers deposits as the bank's liabilities. If the two trillion dollars are Fed Reserve Bank assets, what are the offsetting liabilities?
I feel naive in asking, but aren't the Fed's liabilities the federal reserve notes we all carry around and use as currency and consider to be money? Traditionally, I thought fed printed reserve notes (currency) to buy treasury notes from the banks. Doing so increased the currency in circulation and would drive interest rates down. Alternatively, the fed could sell treasuries in the open market, reducing the money supply and causing interest rates to rise. I thought that was the way it was supposed to work.
The Fed was supposed to influence interest rates while keeping an eye on inflationary effects of these market transactions. Too much currency pumped into the banking system would keep interest rates low but lead to inflation. Once people realized the purchasing power of their money was being reduced by the increase in the supply of money (more money chasing the same amount of goods would increase price levels), they would prefer to hold other assets than currency, and if they did keep money on deposit in their accounts they would demand to receive higher interest rates in return. So simultaneously keeping interest rates and inflation as low as possible was the job of the Fed Reserve Bank.
The Fed also managed the reserves the banks were required to keep on deposit with the Federal Reserve Bank. This reserve was to be used to loan to a bank in case a transitory financial crisis caused a run on the bank by its depositors. That way the bank wouldn't have to call in loans to pay off depositors.
Janett is telling me it's time to run an errand, so let me wrap it up for now by saying the Fed used to print money and hold Treasuries to back up the value of the currency printed. What we're seeing now seems to be the Fed printing vast, huge, immense amounts of currency to bail out the banks and accepting absolute garbage as collateral.
Later...I haven't figured out what happens when the banks tell the Fed "We can't pay you back, so I guess you can keep the garbage."
PS Incidentally, news reports that some banks are willing and able to pay back the TARP funds to the Treasury, and hope to escape ongoing scrutiny once the TARP funds are repaid, probably have more to do with the Fed's surreptitious loans to the banks than it does with banks having "recovered"
The two trillion dollars figures out to be $7,500 per man, woman and child in the country. I don't think we're all going to receive equivalent benefits, but will probably pay some proportionate cost. The idea apparently is to get the banks off the hook for all the bad loans they profited in making and, through the Fed, to pass the cost along to the citizens.
PS If these loans were made to the banks to cover losses on mortgage securities, how will losses on consumer credit, car loans. student loans, corporate debt and governmental debt be taken off banks' books as the impending defaults occur? Just push that all onto the Fed's books as well? I don't understand what it means if the Federal Reserve Bank is bankrupt except that the currency must ultimately be recognized as worthless. Which takes us back to where we were three or four years ago when I was explaining why I saw gold as a good investment.
It would probably just confuse you as much as it has me.
The Federal Reserve Bank has loaned 2 trillion dollars since September 2008.
These loans are distinct from the $700 billion TARP "bail out", and is tracked and managed even worse than the TARP funds have been. The Fed doesn't want to say who they loaned the money to, or what collateral they received, or how that collateral was valued. See clip
Basic accounting is for a bank to record loans made as the bank's assets, and customers deposits as the bank's liabilities. If the two trillion dollars are Fed Reserve Bank assets, what are the offsetting liabilities?
I feel naive in asking, but aren't the Fed's liabilities the federal reserve notes we all carry around and use as currency and consider to be money? Traditionally, I thought fed printed reserve notes (currency) to buy treasury notes from the banks. Doing so increased the currency in circulation and would drive interest rates down. Alternatively, the fed could sell treasuries in the open market, reducing the money supply and causing interest rates to rise. I thought that was the way it was supposed to work.
The Fed was supposed to influence interest rates while keeping an eye on inflationary effects of these market transactions. Too much currency pumped into the banking system would keep interest rates low but lead to inflation. Once people realized the purchasing power of their money was being reduced by the increase in the supply of money (more money chasing the same amount of goods would increase price levels), they would prefer to hold other assets than currency, and if they did keep money on deposit in their accounts they would demand to receive higher interest rates in return. So simultaneously keeping interest rates and inflation as low as possible was the job of the Fed Reserve Bank.
The Fed also managed the reserves the banks were required to keep on deposit with the Federal Reserve Bank. This reserve was to be used to loan to a bank in case a transitory financial crisis caused a run on the bank by its depositors. That way the bank wouldn't have to call in loans to pay off depositors.
Janett is telling me it's time to run an errand, so let me wrap it up for now by saying the Fed used to print money and hold Treasuries to back up the value of the currency printed. What we're seeing now seems to be the Fed printing vast, huge, immense amounts of currency to bail out the banks and accepting absolute garbage as collateral.
Later...I haven't figured out what happens when the banks tell the Fed "We can't pay you back, so I guess you can keep the garbage."
PS Incidentally, news reports that some banks are willing and able to pay back the TARP funds to the Treasury, and hope to escape ongoing scrutiny once the TARP funds are repaid, probably have more to do with the Fed's surreptitious loans to the banks than it does with banks having "recovered"
The two trillion dollars figures out to be $7,500 per man, woman and child in the country. I don't think we're all going to receive equivalent benefits, but will probably pay some proportionate cost. The idea apparently is to get the banks off the hook for all the bad loans they profited in making and, through the Fed, to pass the cost along to the citizens.
PS If these loans were made to the banks to cover losses on mortgage securities, how will losses on consumer credit, car loans. student loans, corporate debt and governmental debt be taken off banks' books as the impending defaults occur? Just push that all onto the Fed's books as well? I don't understand what it means if the Federal Reserve Bank is bankrupt except that the currency must ultimately be recognized as worthless. Which takes us back to where we were three or four years ago when I was explaining why I saw gold as a good investment.
Monday, May 18, 2009
I had a little trouble getting my blog groove back after
the recent hiatus but I had a few thoughts to share this morning so I was going to try. However my blog writing page doesn't look right. The input box is much larger and the toolbar is gone. There are entry fields for URL and MIME Type under the heading Enclosure which leave me feeling clueless. How can I attach pictures or links without the toolbar? Down below there are little instructions about using Control B and Control I which don't work. and I'd prefer the toolbar regardless.
(Comment was saved to note pad Sunday and posted Monday when things were back to normal)
Anyway, here's what I was going to discuss
In the winter of 1998, two separate teams of astronomers in Berkeley, California, made a similar, startling discovery. They were both observing supernovae -- exploding stars visible over great distances -- to see how fast the universe is expanding. In accordance with prevailing scientific wisdom, the astronomers expected to find the rate of expansion to be decreasing, Instead they found it to be increasing -- a discovery which has since "shaken astronomy to its core" (Astronomy, October 1999).
This discovery would have come as no surprise to Georges Lemaitre (1894-1966), a Belgian mathematician and Catholic priest who developed the theory of the Big Bang. Lemaitre described the beginning of the universe as a burst of fireworks, comparing galaxies to the burning embers spreading out in a growing sphere from the center of the burst. He believed this burst of fireworks was the beginning of time, taking place on "a day without yesterday."
After decades of struggle, other scientists came to accept the Big Bang as fact. But while most scientists -- including the mathematician Stephen Hawking -- predicted that gravity would eventually slow down the expansion of the universe and make the universe fall back toward its center, Lemaitre believed that the universe would keep expanding. He argued that the Big Bang was a unique event, while other scientists believed that the universe would shrink to the point of another Big Bang, and so on. The observations made in Berkeley supported Lemaitre's contention that the Big Bang was in fact "a day without yesterday." 'A Day Without Yesterday': Georges Lemaitre & the Big Bang by Mark Midbon, Commonweal (March 24, 2000): 18-19.

Lemaitre proposed the big bang theory in 1927. Einstein first rejected, then grudgingly accepted the theory. In fact the term "big bang" was coined by a Cambridge physicist in the 40's who was proposing an alternative theory. Lemaitre's paper was titled "A homogeneous Universe of constant mass and growing radius accounting for the radial velocity (radial velocity: Velocity along the line of sight toward or away from the observer) of extragalactic nebulae". Big Bang does roll off the tongue a little more easily. By 1966 at the time of Lemaitre's death it was almost universally accepted, but until the 1998 observations physicists were reluctant to accept Lemaitre's conclusion that the Big Bang was a one time event.
When word of the 1998 Berkeley discovery that the universe is expanding at an increasing rate first reached Stephen Hawking, he said it was too preliminary to be taken seriously. Later, he changed his mind. "I have now had more time to consider the observations, and they look quite good," he told Astronomy magazine (October 1999). "This led me to reconsider my theoretical prejudices."
(Comment was saved to note pad Sunday and posted Monday when things were back to normal)
Anyway, here's what I was going to discuss
In the winter of 1998, two separate teams of astronomers in Berkeley, California, made a similar, startling discovery. They were both observing supernovae -- exploding stars visible over great distances -- to see how fast the universe is expanding. In accordance with prevailing scientific wisdom, the astronomers expected to find the rate of expansion to be decreasing, Instead they found it to be increasing -- a discovery which has since "shaken astronomy to its core" (Astronomy, October 1999).
This discovery would have come as no surprise to Georges Lemaitre (1894-1966), a Belgian mathematician and Catholic priest who developed the theory of the Big Bang. Lemaitre described the beginning of the universe as a burst of fireworks, comparing galaxies to the burning embers spreading out in a growing sphere from the center of the burst. He believed this burst of fireworks was the beginning of time, taking place on "a day without yesterday."
After decades of struggle, other scientists came to accept the Big Bang as fact. But while most scientists -- including the mathematician Stephen Hawking -- predicted that gravity would eventually slow down the expansion of the universe and make the universe fall back toward its center, Lemaitre believed that the universe would keep expanding. He argued that the Big Bang was a unique event, while other scientists believed that the universe would shrink to the point of another Big Bang, and so on. The observations made in Berkeley supported Lemaitre's contention that the Big Bang was in fact "a day without yesterday." 'A Day Without Yesterday': Georges Lemaitre & the Big Bang by Mark Midbon, Commonweal (March 24, 2000): 18-19.

Lemaitre proposed the big bang theory in 1927. Einstein first rejected, then grudgingly accepted the theory. In fact the term "big bang" was coined by a Cambridge physicist in the 40's who was proposing an alternative theory. Lemaitre's paper was titled "A homogeneous Universe of constant mass and growing radius accounting for the radial velocity (radial velocity: Velocity along the line of sight toward or away from the observer) of extragalactic nebulae". Big Bang does roll off the tongue a little more easily. By 1966 at the time of Lemaitre's death it was almost universally accepted, but until the 1998 observations physicists were reluctant to accept Lemaitre's conclusion that the Big Bang was a one time event.
When word of the 1998 Berkeley discovery that the universe is expanding at an increasing rate first reached Stephen Hawking, he said it was too preliminary to be taken seriously. Later, he changed his mind. "I have now had more time to consider the observations, and they look quite good," he told Astronomy magazine (October 1999). "This led me to reconsider my theoretical prejudices."
Monday, May 04, 2009
Chickie
The electricity failed one night at Janett's sister in law, Sally's place here in Georgia. A coyote took advantage of the darkness to break into the coop and kill a couple chicken's including Sally's favorite. It struck Janett that a baby chick would be a nice gift for Sally, so we went to a feedstore Saturday evening and grand daughter Hannah picked out a chick.

We neglected to ask what kind of chick we were purchasing. I later googled to try to find a breed description that matched our little traveling companion. From McMurray Hatchery I got this description and picture.

BLACK STAR: A wonderful brown egg layer that will weigh a little over 5 lbs. The females are black with gold hackle and breast feathers and are egg laying machines.
One commenter said Hello! I just wanted to take the time to comment on the Black Star. I have one who is now two years old named Beamer. I grew up with chickens as pets, but she is truly unique! She follows me everywhere, comes when I call her and even sits on my lap. I would recommend this breed to anyone interested in raising a great pet. She's also a terrific egg-layer, which is a plus! Katie Glassmoyer Greenville, SC
Boy, we may have found an excellent chick for Sally. Too bad they can't be house-broken.

We neglected to ask what kind of chick we were purchasing. I later googled to try to find a breed description that matched our little traveling companion. From McMurray Hatchery I got this description and picture.

BLACK STAR: A wonderful brown egg layer that will weigh a little over 5 lbs. The females are black with gold hackle and breast feathers and are egg laying machines.
One commenter said Hello! I just wanted to take the time to comment on the Black Star. I have one who is now two years old named Beamer. I grew up with chickens as pets, but she is truly unique! She follows me everywhere, comes when I call her and even sits on my lap. I would recommend this breed to anyone interested in raising a great pet. She's also a terrific egg-layer, which is a plus! Katie Glassmoyer Greenville, SC
Boy, we may have found an excellent chick for Sally. Too bad they can't be house-broken.
At Jekyll Island we saw a resort building named
Sans Souci which translates to "without care". The building contained six apartments, two on each floor. The original tenants included J P Morgan and John D. Rockerfeller. There were other houses on the island, not quite mansions, but fancier than most of our ideas of cottages.

The name may ring a bell because Frederick the Great of Prussia had built a palace called Sanssouci in Potsdam, near Berlin in the eighteenth century. The snapshot of Sanssouci doesnt really do it justice.

One commentator said The south facing garden façade. Frederick the Great ignored his architect's advice to place the piano nobile* upon a low ground floor. As a result, the palace failed to take maximum advantage of its location. Its windows are devoid of views, and seen from its lower terraces it appears to be more of an orangery than a palace. But other views of this palace and other buildings there bring to mind the term "rococco" for their ornateness.
*The piano nobile is the principal floor of a large house, usually built in one of the styles of classical renaissance architecture.

The name may ring a bell because Frederick the Great of Prussia had built a palace called Sanssouci in Potsdam, near Berlin in the eighteenth century. The snapshot of Sanssouci doesnt really do it justice.

One commentator said The south facing garden façade. Frederick the Great ignored his architect's advice to place the piano nobile* upon a low ground floor. As a result, the palace failed to take maximum advantage of its location. Its windows are devoid of views, and seen from its lower terraces it appears to be more of an orangery than a palace. But other views of this palace and other buildings there bring to mind the term "rococco" for their ornateness.
*The piano nobile is the principal floor of a large house, usually built in one of the styles of classical renaissance architecture.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Ok, forget everything we told you
Betsy's husband, Bill has been skeptical about our abilty to validate the theories relating global warmimg to greenhouse emissions. I thought he was allowing his political sentiments to influence his scientific objectivity. Maybe not. He mentioned these new observations while we were at his home on Sunday. So stop worrying about warming and look out for the new ice age.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Boy, this clip actually isn't funny, and really it's
kind of sad. My brother Mike sent it to me.
Well, I guess it's a little funny. Thanks Mike
Well, I guess it's a little funny. Thanks Mike
Friday, April 24, 2009
Oh no, it's him again
I'm posting the final section of an article by simon Johnson from Atlantic Online. Of course, I think you should give it a once over. I know I'm a downer, and we'd all rather not to have to deal with this crap every day, but this crap is going to deal with us in unfortunate, if not tragic ways. Knowing what is happening and what is likely to happen, at least allows us to brace for the assault, and maybe marginally mitigate our circumstances. At least, now that it's happening there are plenty of skilled and informed commentators writing articles to clip and paste, and you don't have to read as much of my laboured prose.
In my view, the U.S. faces two plausible scenarios. The first involves complicated bank-by-bank deals and a continual drumbeat of (repeated) bailouts, like the ones we saw in February with Citigroup and AIG. The administration will try to muddle through, and confusion will reign.
Boris Fyodorov, the late finance minister of Russia, struggled for much of the past 20 years against oligarchs, corruption, and abuse of authority in all its forms. He liked to say that confusion and chaos were very much in the interests of the powerful—letting them take things, legally and illegally, with impunity. When inflation is high, who can say what a piece of property is really worth? When the credit system is supported by byzantine government arrangements and backroom deals, how do you know that you aren’t being fleeced?
Our future could be one in which continued tumult feeds the looting of the financial system, and we talk more and more about exactly how our oligarchs became bandits and how the economy just can’t seem to get into gear.
The second scenario begins more bleakly, and might end that way too. But it does provide at least some hope that we’ll be shaken out of our torpor. It goes like this: the global economy continues to deteriorate, the banking system in east-central Europe collapses, and—because eastern Europe’s banks are mostly owned by western European banks—justifiable fears of government insolvency spread throughout the Continent. Creditors take further hits and confidence falls further. The Asian economies that export manufactured goods are devastated, and the commodity producers in Latin America and Africa are not much better off. A dramatic worsening of the global environment forces the U.S. economy, already staggering, down onto both knees. The baseline growth rates used in the administration’s current budget are increasingly seen as unrealistic, and the rosy “stress scenario” that the U.S. Treasury is currently using to evaluate banks’ balance sheets becomes a source of great embarrassment.
Under this kind of pressure, and faced with the prospect of a national and global collapse, minds may become more concentrated.
The conventional wisdom among the elite is still that the current slump “cannot be as bad as the Great Depression.” This view is wrong. What we face now could, in fact, be worse than the Great Depression—because the world is now so much more interconnected and because the banking sector is now so big. We face a synchronized downturn in almost all countries, a weakening of confidence among individuals and firms, and major problems for government finances. If our leadership wakes up to the potential consequences, we may yet see dramatic action on the banking system and a breaking of the old elite. Let us hope it is not then too late.
In my view, the U.S. faces two plausible scenarios. The first involves complicated bank-by-bank deals and a continual drumbeat of (repeated) bailouts, like the ones we saw in February with Citigroup and AIG. The administration will try to muddle through, and confusion will reign.
Boris Fyodorov, the late finance minister of Russia, struggled for much of the past 20 years against oligarchs, corruption, and abuse of authority in all its forms. He liked to say that confusion and chaos were very much in the interests of the powerful—letting them take things, legally and illegally, with impunity. When inflation is high, who can say what a piece of property is really worth? When the credit system is supported by byzantine government arrangements and backroom deals, how do you know that you aren’t being fleeced?
Our future could be one in which continued tumult feeds the looting of the financial system, and we talk more and more about exactly how our oligarchs became bandits and how the economy just can’t seem to get into gear.
The second scenario begins more bleakly, and might end that way too. But it does provide at least some hope that we’ll be shaken out of our torpor. It goes like this: the global economy continues to deteriorate, the banking system in east-central Europe collapses, and—because eastern Europe’s banks are mostly owned by western European banks—justifiable fears of government insolvency spread throughout the Continent. Creditors take further hits and confidence falls further. The Asian economies that export manufactured goods are devastated, and the commodity producers in Latin America and Africa are not much better off. A dramatic worsening of the global environment forces the U.S. economy, already staggering, down onto both knees. The baseline growth rates used in the administration’s current budget are increasingly seen as unrealistic, and the rosy “stress scenario” that the U.S. Treasury is currently using to evaluate banks’ balance sheets becomes a source of great embarrassment.
Under this kind of pressure, and faced with the prospect of a national and global collapse, minds may become more concentrated.
The conventional wisdom among the elite is still that the current slump “cannot be as bad as the Great Depression.” This view is wrong. What we face now could, in fact, be worse than the Great Depression—because the world is now so much more interconnected and because the banking sector is now so big. We face a synchronized downturn in almost all countries, a weakening of confidence among individuals and firms, and major problems for government finances. If our leadership wakes up to the potential consequences, we may yet see dramatic action on the banking system and a breaking of the old elite. Let us hope it is not then too late.
I want a shower
We went for a walk at Lord's Park today, then I put in a few hours at the office. This evening I'm the mop and vacuum guy. I want to clean up and cool off first, maybe change into shorts and a jersey. One day near 80 and I have a Summer's Here attitude. I made a pitcher of iced tea and while it's chilling a bit I thought I'd write.
You know what? I'm just going to post this very nice picture of Janett, Owen, and me and write later.

Things we might have talked about:
Do you think the Road to Emmaus is an OK First Communion gift to an eight year old?
Do you think the markets high close today means this rally will continue, or are you thinking "double top"?
Why haven't I even mentioned the Blue Gold Spring game?
You know what? I'm just going to post this very nice picture of Janett, Owen, and me and write later.

Things we might have talked about:
Do you think the Road to Emmaus is an OK First Communion gift to an eight year old?
Do you think the markets high close today means this rally will continue, or are you thinking "double top"?
Why haven't I even mentioned the Blue Gold Spring game?
Thursday, April 23, 2009
I just looked up Activision
Just goes to show how wrong you can be
I mentioned yesterday having lost money on agn and dri. I don't mean to beat a dead horse but look at DRI today.

It's up 50% from where I bought my put. Chipotles, Cracker Barrel, Buffalo Wild Wings, Dine Equity (Applebees and Ihop) are all running up in the current rally. I guess we've found something American's are good at - dining out.

It's up 50% from where I bought my put. Chipotles, Cracker Barrel, Buffalo Wild Wings, Dine Equity (Applebees and Ihop) are all running up in the current rally. I guess we've found something American's are good at - dining out.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
I'm cranky and out of sorts
I felt like typing "I already know what you think and you don't care what I think" or visa versa. Which wouldn't be true, but reflects a monumental self absorbtion. Maybe because I didn't make Easter services, I'm a little out of touch with God.
Maybe, because Janett and I were quarreling about inconsequential things today.
Maybe because I lost money on two consecutive trades.
Maybe because I'm floundering about in my efforts to get the bookkeeping business off the ground.
Maybe it's the sense of the economic malaise, accentuated with my cynicism
Maybe it's something in my horoscope.
But there are good things, too. It was sunny and around seventy today. Kim posted pictures from her garden. Janett posted a slideshow of photos from our trip to Fabyan park, and Steffy posted Easter pictures with a nice comment.
Saturday I'm invited to a luncheon at Jose's celebrating Abraham's first holy communion and Sunday I'm invited to Betsy's for a Traynor family get together. We are picking up a few bookkeeping clients, and yesterday I made a very careful purchase on a put, using all the tools in my little toolbox, which still looks OK. (Activision, but I've got my eye on BOK Financial.)
Tonight, I even got to make a call to an old friend about the reunion.
But I'm still colored in earth tones and lack that radiant aura that I always assume envelops me.
PS Floundering must be about the fish.
Maybe, because Janett and I were quarreling about inconsequential things today.
Maybe because I lost money on two consecutive trades.
Maybe because I'm floundering about in my efforts to get the bookkeeping business off the ground.
Maybe it's the sense of the economic malaise, accentuated with my cynicism
Maybe it's something in my horoscope.
But there are good things, too. It was sunny and around seventy today. Kim posted pictures from her garden. Janett posted a slideshow of photos from our trip to Fabyan park, and Steffy posted Easter pictures with a nice comment.
Saturday I'm invited to a luncheon at Jose's celebrating Abraham's first holy communion and Sunday I'm invited to Betsy's for a Traynor family get together. We are picking up a few bookkeeping clients, and yesterday I made a very careful purchase on a put, using all the tools in my little toolbox, which still looks OK. (Activision, but I've got my eye on BOK Financial.)
Tonight, I even got to make a call to an old friend about the reunion.
But I'm still colored in earth tones and lack that radiant aura that I always assume envelops me.
PS Floundering must be about the fish.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
I'm embarrassed to stand before you after AGN
galloped 2$ up on Thursday, breaking my down-trend lines and leaving me with a loss on Friday whwn my option expired. But i had to bring you the news that Susan Boyle is facing some spirited competition in the current England's Most Talented. Take a look.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Steff and the boys had us over for Easter.
That blog post I copied here about Geithner and
Goldman Sachs, and others by the same author must have hurt someone's feelimg at GS.
Goldman Sachs hires law firm to shut blogger's site
Goldman Sachs is attempting to shut down a dissident blogger who is extremely critical of the investment bank, its board members and its practices.
By James Quinn, Wall Street Correspondent
Last Updated: 2:16PM BST 11 Apr 2009
The New York headquarters of Goldman Sachs, which has instructed a Wall Street law firm to tell a blogger to stop criticising the bank.
The bank has instructed Wall Street law firm Chadbourne & Parke to pursue blogger Mike Morgan, warning him in a recent cease-and-desist letter that he may face legal action if he does not close down his website.
Florida-based Mr Morgan began a blog entitled "Facts about Goldman Sachs" – the web address for which is goldmansachs666.com – just a few weeks ago.
According to Chadbourne & Parke's letter, dated April 8, the bank is rattled because the site "violates several of Goldman Sachs' intellectual property rights" and also "implies a relationship" with the bank itself.
Unsurprisingly for a man who has conjoined the bank's name with the Number of the Beast – although he jokingly points out that 666 was also the S&P500's bear-market bottom – Mr Morgan is unlikely to go down without a fight.
He claims he has followed all legal requirements to own and operate the website – and that the header of the site clearly states that the content has not been approved by the bank....
I don't think they have a case, but they can hire enough lawyers to keep him too busy to post objective assessments and honest appraisals.
Goldman Sachs hires law firm to shut blogger's site
Goldman Sachs is attempting to shut down a dissident blogger who is extremely critical of the investment bank, its board members and its practices.
By James Quinn, Wall Street Correspondent
Last Updated: 2:16PM BST 11 Apr 2009
The New York headquarters of Goldman Sachs, which has instructed a Wall Street law firm to tell a blogger to stop criticising the bank.
The bank has instructed Wall Street law firm Chadbourne & Parke to pursue blogger Mike Morgan, warning him in a recent cease-and-desist letter that he may face legal action if he does not close down his website.
Florida-based Mr Morgan began a blog entitled "Facts about Goldman Sachs" – the web address for which is goldmansachs666.com – just a few weeks ago.
According to Chadbourne & Parke's letter, dated April 8, the bank is rattled because the site "violates several of Goldman Sachs' intellectual property rights" and also "implies a relationship" with the bank itself.
Unsurprisingly for a man who has conjoined the bank's name with the Number of the Beast – although he jokingly points out that 666 was also the S&P500's bear-market bottom – Mr Morgan is unlikely to go down without a fight.
He claims he has followed all legal requirements to own and operate the website – and that the header of the site clearly states that the content has not been approved by the bank....
I don't think they have a case, but they can hire enough lawyers to keep him too busy to post objective assessments and honest appraisals.
As in re most matters spiritual, I refer you to Kim's blog
Her quote from Frederick Buechner reminds us that God gave up his son to suffer and die in order to show He would overcome wickedness, His own human vulnerability, and death. Why? To extend to us the opportunity to do the same.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Shocked but not surprised, Asia edition
Thailand - pesky mice,
PATTAYA, Thailand (Reuters) – A summit of Asian leaders in Thailand was canceled on Saturday after anti-government protesters swarmed into the meeting's venue, renewing doubts about the durability of the government.
The events will pile more pressure on an economy teetering on the brink of recession, especially if foreign tourists are put off by the scenes of chaos and emboldened protesters intensify the fight to kick out Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.
Abhisit imposed a state of emergency for a few hours in Pattaya, a resort about 150 kms (90 miles) south of Bangkok best known for its racy nightlife and as a port of call for U.S. sailors*, which was to host the East Asia Summit.
He lifted it after the foreign leaders had left the country. About half of them had had to be evacuated by helicopter from the venue to a nearby military airbase.
The summit fiasco is a huge embarrassment for Abhisit's government, which came to power in December through parliamentary defections that the opposition says were engineered by the army.
*cute
our old friend Hekmatyar,
Holbrooke reaches out to Hekmatyar
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
The recent meeting between a deputy of Richard Holbrooke, the United States special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and an emissary of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan (HIA), is by all accounts a landmark move in the United States' stated aim of involving militant groups in ending the conflict in Afghanistan.
The choice of Hekmatyar also indicates just how desperate the US is in finding an escape route from the escalating crisis in Afghanistan. Hekmatyar is a declared terrorist with a reported $25 million price on his head. The 61-year-old engineer from Kunduz province and his anti-government fighters are responsible for large numbers of attacks against Afghan and international forces, mainly in the northeast of the country. For years, Washington has branded Hekmatyar an irreconcilable militant.
The HIA, founded by Hekmatyar, was one of the most effective mujahideen groups to fight the Soviet invasion during the 1980s. But, according to reports, the party became a favorite of Pakistan's intelligence agency and Hekmatyar's men were known as the most fundamentalist of all Afghan resistance fighters.
To date, however, the US has failed miserably in attracting mainstream Afghan forces of the past back into the political process, including tribal warlords, the Taliban, the Northern Alliance and the HIA. This means, as Peter Lee wrote last month in Asia Times Online, "...the unpredictable Hekmatyar, who has survived the jihad, the civil war, defeat at the hands of the Taliban, exile in Iraq, an assassination attempt by the CIA, and return to Afghanistan as an insurgent leader, is the great hope of all parties as the only Pashtun strongman untainted by al-Qaeda and possibly capable of taking on the Taliban."
and a new concern
Cows With Gas: India's Contribution to Global Warming
By MADHUR SINGH / NEW DELHI Madhur Singh / New Delhi – Sat Apr 11, 2:00 am ET
Indolent cows languidly chewing their cud while befuddled motorists honk and maneuver their vehicles around them are images as stereotypically Indian as saffron-clad holy men and the Taj Mahal. Now, however, India's ubiquitous cows - of which there are 283 million, more than anywhere else in the world - have assumed a more menacing role as they become part of the climate change debate.
By burping, belching and excreting copious amounts of methane - a greenhouse gas that traps 20 times more heat than carbon dioxide - India's livestock of roughly 485 million (including sheep and goats) contribute more to global warming than the vehicles they obstruct. With new research suggesting that emission of methane by Indian livestock is higher than previously estimated, scientists are furiously working at designing diets to help bovines and other ruminants eat better, stay more energetic and secrete lesser amounts of the offensive gas
PATTAYA, Thailand (Reuters) – A summit of Asian leaders in Thailand was canceled on Saturday after anti-government protesters swarmed into the meeting's venue, renewing doubts about the durability of the government.
The events will pile more pressure on an economy teetering on the brink of recession, especially if foreign tourists are put off by the scenes of chaos and emboldened protesters intensify the fight to kick out Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.
Abhisit imposed a state of emergency for a few hours in Pattaya, a resort about 150 kms (90 miles) south of Bangkok best known for its racy nightlife and as a port of call for U.S. sailors*, which was to host the East Asia Summit.
He lifted it after the foreign leaders had left the country. About half of them had had to be evacuated by helicopter from the venue to a nearby military airbase.
The summit fiasco is a huge embarrassment for Abhisit's government, which came to power in December through parliamentary defections that the opposition says were engineered by the army.
*cute
our old friend Hekmatyar,
Holbrooke reaches out to Hekmatyar
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
The recent meeting between a deputy of Richard Holbrooke, the United States special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and an emissary of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan (HIA), is by all accounts a landmark move in the United States' stated aim of involving militant groups in ending the conflict in Afghanistan.
The choice of Hekmatyar also indicates just how desperate the US is in finding an escape route from the escalating crisis in Afghanistan. Hekmatyar is a declared terrorist with a reported $25 million price on his head. The 61-year-old engineer from Kunduz province and his anti-government fighters are responsible for large numbers of attacks against Afghan and international forces, mainly in the northeast of the country. For years, Washington has branded Hekmatyar an irreconcilable militant.
The HIA, founded by Hekmatyar, was one of the most effective mujahideen groups to fight the Soviet invasion during the 1980s. But, according to reports, the party became a favorite of Pakistan's intelligence agency and Hekmatyar's men were known as the most fundamentalist of all Afghan resistance fighters.
To date, however, the US has failed miserably in attracting mainstream Afghan forces of the past back into the political process, including tribal warlords, the Taliban, the Northern Alliance and the HIA. This means, as Peter Lee wrote last month in Asia Times Online, "...the unpredictable Hekmatyar, who has survived the jihad, the civil war, defeat at the hands of the Taliban, exile in Iraq, an assassination attempt by the CIA, and return to Afghanistan as an insurgent leader, is the great hope of all parties as the only Pashtun strongman untainted by al-Qaeda and possibly capable of taking on the Taliban."
and a new concern
Cows With Gas: India's Contribution to Global Warming
By MADHUR SINGH / NEW DELHI Madhur Singh / New Delhi – Sat Apr 11, 2:00 am ET
Indolent cows languidly chewing their cud while befuddled motorists honk and maneuver their vehicles around them are images as stereotypically Indian as saffron-clad holy men and the Taj Mahal. Now, however, India's ubiquitous cows - of which there are 283 million, more than anywhere else in the world - have assumed a more menacing role as they become part of the climate change debate.
By burping, belching and excreting copious amounts of methane - a greenhouse gas that traps 20 times more heat than carbon dioxide - India's livestock of roughly 485 million (including sheep and goats) contribute more to global warming than the vehicles they obstruct. With new research suggesting that emission of methane by Indian livestock is higher than previously estimated, scientists are furiously working at designing diets to help bovines and other ruminants eat better, stay more energetic and secrete lesser amounts of the offensive gas
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Redacted
L_____ and J_____ dropped in this evening and J_____ brought Janett a lovely gift. In the course of the visit it came to light that parties not to be named thought my reference in a previous post to L_____'s not to be named horse was, potentially, a source of embarassment to L______. That post has been deleted. I am filled with remorse and apologise profusely to all concerned.
Any and all other person(s) named in any past or future posting at this site are humbly requested to notify this writer of any possible discomfort any such reference(s) may (have) cause(d). The offending post(s) will be likewise deleted and (a) similar apology(ies) issued.
Sincerely,
A___
Any and all other person(s) named in any past or future posting at this site are humbly requested to notify this writer of any possible discomfort any such reference(s) may (have) cause(d). The offending post(s) will be likewise deleted and (a) similar apology(ies) issued.
Sincerely,
A___
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
One other thing before bed
I followed a link to the Asia Times On Line. I've dropped in there often enough that I ought to mention to you all that it should be one of your top three news links, and I'm not sure who the other two ought to be. Link
PS that wasn't entirely true. I guess you need Google News. then BBC or NPR with honorable mention to C S Monitor. Oh, and I used to try to read the Economist, but for the casual observer, their stuff is a little ponderous.
PS that wasn't entirely true. I guess you need Google News. then BBC or NPR with honorable mention to C S Monitor. Oh, and I used to try to read the Economist, but for the casual observer, their stuff is a little ponderous.
Flowers for Allgeran
This is a picture of my AGN chart from Incredible charts. It shows the stock at the high end of its declining range, bumpimg off the 50% retracement level. I pay $12 per month for this service and the charts can be updated daily.

Click Here forthe AGN chart from BestFreeCharts showing the same trend line, and the same Fibonacci retracement level, but with more panache, and the free service updates at almost any interval you'd like (1 min, 5 min, 10 min,...daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly) and shows market activity in real time
Which do you prefer? and would you think less of me for using one rather than the other?

Click Here forthe AGN chart from BestFreeCharts showing the same trend line, and the same Fibonacci retracement level, but with more panache, and the free service updates at almost any interval you'd like (1 min, 5 min, 10 min,...daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly) and shows market activity in real time
Which do you prefer? and would you think less of me for using one rather than the other?
Monday, April 06, 2009
"Oh, the Mendacity"
Burl Ives said that in a movie made from a Tennessee Williams play, maybe Cat on a Hot Tin Roof, with Elizabeth Taylor. Hmmm, maybe my blog does have a theme, with frequent asides.
I'm sure you've all noticed the link to Slope of Hope, Tim Knight's (technical) market analysis blog that I refer to sometimes. Well, click here, and I'll take you there, where you'll find links to three UTube videos from the Bill Moyers show. Moyers is interviewing a former regulator, Bill Black, about the financial crisis. You should watch these. They're interesting and easy to understand, and more than a little disconcerting.
I'm beginning to register some disappointment in Obama as he allows the Goldman Sachs crew, especially Larry Summers, to funnel hundreds of billions of money the government has to borrow, and that taxpayers will have to pay back, to the corrupt institutions and individuals that knowingly perpetrated fraud in order to collect their bonuses, supposedly "earned" by packaging up crappy debt and poisoning world-wide financial markets with it.*
Because some of my readers are too young to remember, Bill Moyers was President Johnson's press secretary. Over the years he has outlived the unfortunate association with the Viet Nam war and is probably the only true representative of the populist tradition left in the American media. Good for you, Bill.
Oh, and one other serious question, After bailing out the banks from the mortgage debt crisis, do the G-S guys plan to bail out the banks in the consumer debt crisis now developing, and then the munincipal debt crisis which will follow, as well as the commercial debt crisis we can all see coming? Come on Barack. You have very limited time to find a radical solution to an unprecedented dilemna. Relying on the self same representatives of the corrupt system that created this mess isn't going to lead to an acceptable outcome (and vouching for their credibilty now insulates them from the legal penalties they should be facing.)
*68 word sentence, a new record?
I'm sure you've all noticed the link to Slope of Hope, Tim Knight's (technical) market analysis blog that I refer to sometimes. Well, click here, and I'll take you there, where you'll find links to three UTube videos from the Bill Moyers show. Moyers is interviewing a former regulator, Bill Black, about the financial crisis. You should watch these. They're interesting and easy to understand, and more than a little disconcerting.
I'm beginning to register some disappointment in Obama as he allows the Goldman Sachs crew, especially Larry Summers, to funnel hundreds of billions of money the government has to borrow, and that taxpayers will have to pay back, to the corrupt institutions and individuals that knowingly perpetrated fraud in order to collect their bonuses, supposedly "earned" by packaging up crappy debt and poisoning world-wide financial markets with it.*
Because some of my readers are too young to remember, Bill Moyers was President Johnson's press secretary. Over the years he has outlived the unfortunate association with the Viet Nam war and is probably the only true representative of the populist tradition left in the American media. Good for you, Bill.
Oh, and one other serious question, After bailing out the banks from the mortgage debt crisis, do the G-S guys plan to bail out the banks in the consumer debt crisis now developing, and then the munincipal debt crisis which will follow, as well as the commercial debt crisis we can all see coming? Come on Barack. You have very limited time to find a radical solution to an unprecedented dilemna. Relying on the self same representatives of the corrupt system that created this mess isn't going to lead to an acceptable outcome (and vouching for their credibilty now insulates them from the legal penalties they should be facing.)
*68 word sentence, a new record?
Saturday, April 04, 2009
Cacophonous
My blog lacks a theme.
I post about whatever's on my mind. Visitors don't know what to expect, and probably find some posts uninteresting, or even annoying. Is there a benefit to being informed on a topic you don't really care about? It kind of gets back to the inductive vs deductive thing.
One can observe the big picture and try to figure out how it happened to develop, or one can observe a myriad of lesser phenomena and try to assemble them into a workable model.
Anyway, sorry to be chaotic. Hope it doesn't give you a headache.
I post about whatever's on my mind. Visitors don't know what to expect, and probably find some posts uninteresting, or even annoying. Is there a benefit to being informed on a topic you don't really care about? It kind of gets back to the inductive vs deductive thing.
One can observe the big picture and try to figure out how it happened to develop, or one can observe a myriad of lesser phenomena and try to assemble them into a workable model.
Anyway, sorry to be chaotic. Hope it doesn't give you a headache.
Friday, April 03, 2009
I mentioned in my Tuesday post re Louie that I had bought
an AGN put. After the DNI debacle I didn't want to make a big deal out of it.
Also, I felt bad about shorting into a rally. The stock han run up $10 dollars a couple of days before on acquisition rumors which were probably just rumors.

That's the chart I was looking at. I sold a 45 put at 46.50. The stock went up to 48.50 this week. What do you think?
Also, I felt bad about shorting into a rally. The stock han run up $10 dollars a couple of days before on acquisition rumors which were probably just rumors.

That's the chart I was looking at. I sold a 45 put at 46.50. The stock went up to 48.50 this week. What do you think?
Thursday, April 02, 2009
Geithner = Dupe?
Last week I posted that Geithner reminded me of Bobby the day after Jack got shot. This blogger suggests that Geithner was at best a willing dupe of the Goldman Sachs crew.
Facts About Goldman Sachs
An open forum for facts and discussion about what part Goldman Sachs and their executives played in the current Global Economic Crisis.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Geithner - Goldman - PIMROCK
I received this from a reliable source. I cannot verify everything in this post, but I don't see anything out of place or totally off the wall. - Mike
I've been peeling the onion on Geithner, and I keep coming up with more onion. What I've learned, however, allows me to shed a little light on "PIMROCK" (PIMCO, BlackRock)..
Pete Peterson, former Chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, hand picked Geithner for the position of NY Fed President. Geithner was a Senior Fellow on the Council on Foreign Relations. Peterson was co-founder and CEO of the Blackstone Group hedge fund, which spun off BlackRock. 49% of BlackRock is owned by Merrill Lynch. Merrill Lynch is owned by Bank of America. Bank of America and Bank of America bonds have arguably taken over from Citigroup as the most important financial stock and bonds to watch.
Geithner, who was little more than a glorified clerk, was made President of the NY Fed in 2003. His boss and chief advisor was Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. Alan Greenspan works today as a consultant for PIMCO. "Why would PIMROCK go along with this?.....because they hold $100B in J.P. Citi of America bonds, and they've received assurances that if we can get the nation out of the financial pickle it's in, there will be no haircuts on those bonds." (quoting Waldman).
Who really ran the NY Fed when Giethner was President? Well, his three "class-A" Directors were Jamie Dimon, Stephen Friedman and Richard Fuld.
Jamie Dimon is the CEO of JP Morgan, receipient of at least $25 billion in TARP money and another $30 billion in Fed funds collateralized by Bear Stearns paper (which had been formally managed by BlackRock, and is now being paid for by the US taxpayers). The Bear Stearns give away to JPM was supposed to be Geithner's idea, but it had to be Dimon's idea. After all, Geithner is worth $1.6 million while Dimon is personally worth over $2 billion. Who was the real force behind that deal?
NY Fed board member Stephen Friedman, also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, was Chairman of Goldman Sachs until 1994. Friedman still sits on Goldman's board. I think it's safe to say he's got the Fed looking after Goldman Sach's interests. But, just in case, there is Edward F. Murphy, Execuitve VP of the NY Fed. Murphy was A former VP and CFO at Goldman Sachs.
Former Lehman CEO, Richard Fuld, who resigned his position on the NY Fed Board when Lehman collapsed, was the sacrificial lamb. The Lehman collapse had to happen, if for no other reason, so that Geithner could send Dimon $138 billion to give to Citigroup to cover the $138 billion in bad paper it was stuck with. So, even though Lehman went down, those Citigroup/Bank of NY Mellon bondholders walked away whole. Geithner had to protect his old Treasury boss, Rubin, who had over $100 million stuck in Citigroup.
Ironically, another of Geithner's former bosses, Larry Summers, who was working for the D. E. Shaw & Co., a hedge fund that Fortune Magazine called, "the most intriguing and mysterious force on Wall Street", and that specialized in acquiring the assets of distressed companies, dumped a 20% share of that quant company on Lehman in 2007.
I guess Shaw & Co. had learned its lessons about bad assets after it had been clobbered during the LCTM (Long Term Capital Management) crash. If you remember, it was Summers who negotiated the LCTM bailout. It looks like he finally got rewarded by Shaw & Co., a company best known for its "quantitave investment strategies particularly statistical arbitrage". Anyway, don't cry for Richard Fuld, he still walked away with over $22 million. Fuld, GE CEO Jeff Immelt and GS CEO LLoyd Blankfein all sit on the board of the Robinhood Foundation. I ain't making this stuff up.
E. Gerald Corrigan was the 7th President of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY and the Vice-Chairman of the Fed Open Market Committee. He had one of the strongest influences on Geithner. Who else influenced Geithner when he was NY Fed Chairman? According to Corrigan, "He (Geithner) brings in groups of people. That includes, at times, some of his old Treasury buddies"(he's talking about Rubin and Summers). "As I said, he has really worked at this networking thing I keep talking about". Rubin, of course, was not only Geithner's former boss at Treasury, but he was also a former CEO of Goldman Sachs. Corrigan, by the way, is now a Chairman at Goldman Sachs.
John Thain, that other Goldman Sachs guy, once bragged about his access to Geithner. He said, "sometimes I talk to him multiple times a day".
Remember, John Thain, former CEO of Merrill Lynch and of $35,000 toilet fame (where much money was flushed), when Merrill owned BlackRock, had, at one time, been COO at Goldman Sachs until 2003. Then he went on to become Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange.
So, when BlackRock was controlling the Bear Stearn/JPM "assets" at the Fed, it was Thain, the former Goldman Sachs COO, who managed the company that owned the company that "managed" the toxic Fed (now taxpayer) assets. It gets complicated, but whether it was Thain managing the BS/JPM assets, or Thain running the NY Stock Exchange, it's just one more Goldman Sachs crony running another part of the corrupt business universe. All we can do is to continue to CONNECT THE DOTS.......
Facts About Goldman Sachs
An open forum for facts and discussion about what part Goldman Sachs and their executives played in the current Global Economic Crisis.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Geithner - Goldman - PIMROCK
I received this from a reliable source. I cannot verify everything in this post, but I don't see anything out of place or totally off the wall. - Mike
I've been peeling the onion on Geithner, and I keep coming up with more onion. What I've learned, however, allows me to shed a little light on "PIMROCK" (PIMCO, BlackRock)..
Pete Peterson, former Chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, hand picked Geithner for the position of NY Fed President. Geithner was a Senior Fellow on the Council on Foreign Relations. Peterson was co-founder and CEO of the Blackstone Group hedge fund, which spun off BlackRock. 49% of BlackRock is owned by Merrill Lynch. Merrill Lynch is owned by Bank of America. Bank of America and Bank of America bonds have arguably taken over from Citigroup as the most important financial stock and bonds to watch.
Geithner, who was little more than a glorified clerk, was made President of the NY Fed in 2003. His boss and chief advisor was Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. Alan Greenspan works today as a consultant for PIMCO. "Why would PIMROCK go along with this?.....because they hold $100B in J.P. Citi of America bonds, and they've received assurances that if we can get the nation out of the financial pickle it's in, there will be no haircuts on those bonds." (quoting Waldman).
Who really ran the NY Fed when Giethner was President? Well, his three "class-A" Directors were Jamie Dimon, Stephen Friedman and Richard Fuld.
Jamie Dimon is the CEO of JP Morgan, receipient of at least $25 billion in TARP money and another $30 billion in Fed funds collateralized by Bear Stearns paper (which had been formally managed by BlackRock, and is now being paid for by the US taxpayers). The Bear Stearns give away to JPM was supposed to be Geithner's idea, but it had to be Dimon's idea. After all, Geithner is worth $1.6 million while Dimon is personally worth over $2 billion. Who was the real force behind that deal?
NY Fed board member Stephen Friedman, also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, was Chairman of Goldman Sachs until 1994. Friedman still sits on Goldman's board. I think it's safe to say he's got the Fed looking after Goldman Sach's interests. But, just in case, there is Edward F. Murphy, Execuitve VP of the NY Fed. Murphy was A former VP and CFO at Goldman Sachs.
Former Lehman CEO, Richard Fuld, who resigned his position on the NY Fed Board when Lehman collapsed, was the sacrificial lamb. The Lehman collapse had to happen, if for no other reason, so that Geithner could send Dimon $138 billion to give to Citigroup to cover the $138 billion in bad paper it was stuck with. So, even though Lehman went down, those Citigroup/Bank of NY Mellon bondholders walked away whole. Geithner had to protect his old Treasury boss, Rubin, who had over $100 million stuck in Citigroup.
Ironically, another of Geithner's former bosses, Larry Summers, who was working for the D. E. Shaw & Co., a hedge fund that Fortune Magazine called, "the most intriguing and mysterious force on Wall Street", and that specialized in acquiring the assets of distressed companies, dumped a 20% share of that quant company on Lehman in 2007.
I guess Shaw & Co. had learned its lessons about bad assets after it had been clobbered during the LCTM (Long Term Capital Management) crash. If you remember, it was Summers who negotiated the LCTM bailout. It looks like he finally got rewarded by Shaw & Co., a company best known for its "quantitave investment strategies particularly statistical arbitrage". Anyway, don't cry for Richard Fuld, he still walked away with over $22 million. Fuld, GE CEO Jeff Immelt and GS CEO LLoyd Blankfein all sit on the board of the Robinhood Foundation. I ain't making this stuff up.
E. Gerald Corrigan was the 7th President of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY and the Vice-Chairman of the Fed Open Market Committee. He had one of the strongest influences on Geithner. Who else influenced Geithner when he was NY Fed Chairman? According to Corrigan, "He (Geithner) brings in groups of people. That includes, at times, some of his old Treasury buddies"(he's talking about Rubin and Summers). "As I said, he has really worked at this networking thing I keep talking about". Rubin, of course, was not only Geithner's former boss at Treasury, but he was also a former CEO of Goldman Sachs. Corrigan, by the way, is now a Chairman at Goldman Sachs.
John Thain, that other Goldman Sachs guy, once bragged about his access to Geithner. He said, "sometimes I talk to him multiple times a day".
Remember, John Thain, former CEO of Merrill Lynch and of $35,000 toilet fame (where much money was flushed), when Merrill owned BlackRock, had, at one time, been COO at Goldman Sachs until 2003. Then he went on to become Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange.
So, when BlackRock was controlling the Bear Stearn/JPM "assets" at the Fed, it was Thain, the former Goldman Sachs COO, who managed the company that owned the company that "managed" the toxic Fed (now taxpayer) assets. It gets complicated, but whether it was Thain managing the BS/JPM assets, or Thain running the NY Stock Exchange, it's just one more Goldman Sachs crony running another part of the corrupt business universe. All we can do is to continue to CONNECT THE DOTS.......
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Obama at ND
I probably should have posted on this topic, but in a display of moral ambivalence, didn't. Kim did, and even though I probably have from none to few readers who don't go to Kim's site, I thought, at least, I could copy it.
As of today, more than 190,000 people have signed a petition in protest of President Obama's selection to be the commencement speaker and honorary degree recipient at Notre Dame on May 17th. Obama carried the majority of Catholics in the presidential election, so why do so many of them oppose this honor?
Christianity Today has an insightful conversation with Francis Beckwith, visiting fellow at Notre Dame, on this contentious issue. Here's an excerpt:
Since the President will speak at several commencement ceremonies during his term, why did his invitation to speak at Notre Dame create such a stir?
There's nothing wrong with inviting speakers to campus who disagree with the university. I don't think that's the issue here. Here, you have a combination of a commencement address and an honorary doctorate. The honorary doctorate is more troubling than the commencement address because to give him an honorary doctorate in law is to say that he's accomplished something in the field of law that the University of Notre Dame wants to honor. In the past three weeks, we've seen a number of different events, one of which was the change in policy on embryonic stem cell research. The problem is, the areas in which he's been involved with legislation on the issue of abortion have been contrary to Catholic teaching.
Colleges regularly invite people whom they may disagree with to speak on campus. For instance, Wheaton College invited Condoleezza Rice to speak at commencement even though she is pro-choice.
I can see a situation where you have an elected official who may be pro-choice, but it's not the focus or center of their legislative history. For instance, Houston Baptist invited Rudolph Giuliani, but he just gave a speech. He even acknowledged in his speech, "Look, my views on abortion are not held by a vast majority of you in the audience." But I think that Houston Baptist would not have given him an honorary doctorate in law. One of the things Obama is working on right now is perhaps overturning the conscience clause that the Bush administration had instituted, which has a direct bearing on Catholic hospitals. Here, you have a case where somebody claims to extol the virtue of choice but wants to remove choice from the conscience of citizens when it comes to performing or referring people for abortions.
...
Pope John Paul II issued Ex Corde Ecclesiae in 1990 stressing the importance of the Catholic character of Catholic institutions of higher learning. How has Ex Corde Ecclesiae influenced this current debate?
I think the statement has given them a template to look at the relationship between Catholic theology and the university. If places like Notre Dame took it seriously, an invitation to be the commencement speaker and receive an honorary doctorate would not have gone out. For instance, I would welcome Barack Obama to speak at Baylor. But in this case, the honorary doctorate doesn't go to the office of the President. It goes to Barack Obama, even after he ceases to be president. In a way, that gives an imprimatur on him and his views that I don't think Notre Dame should give him. I think if he were just the commencement speaker and not receiving the honorary doctorate, it would tone down the criticism. How can Notre Dame give him an honorary doctorate for excellence in something that our own theology teaches he isn't excellent in?
The real debate is whether theological claims can count as knowledge. I think that's what the Pope is saying: if we think theology is true and knowable, that means it's no different than what we learn in literature or sociology or philosophy. If that's the case, the university is where we should integrate these areas of knowledge. Theology shouldn't be an after thought. It shouldn't be relegated to campus ministry. It's like in the evangelical world, tagging on a Bible verse. You'll have a book on Christianity and science and it'll be regular science and a section of Bible verses. You think, "This isn't integration, this is weird."
This reminds me of Madeline L'Engle's exploration of faith and art in Walking on Water. Art, if it fails to tell the truth, can never be great art, no matter how clever and skillful the artist. Barack Obama may be a great man in many ways, but until he recognizes the truth about the value of human life he will continue to create policies that are at best, weak and at worst, massively destructive.
I think the graduating class of '09 could be really inspired by whatever Obama has to say on May 17th, and I wouldn't want to deprive them of the oppurtunity to hear that. We don't have to agree with everything a person believes to learn from them. But for a Catholic University to bestow an honorary doctorate on someone who clearly has a very poor understanding of the most fundamental rights of Americans is either hollow flattery or major ignorance and, either way, completely inappropriate for an institution of such stature.
Posted by Kimberly Cangelosi
As of today, more than 190,000 people have signed a petition in protest of President Obama's selection to be the commencement speaker and honorary degree recipient at Notre Dame on May 17th. Obama carried the majority of Catholics in the presidential election, so why do so many of them oppose this honor?
Christianity Today has an insightful conversation with Francis Beckwith, visiting fellow at Notre Dame, on this contentious issue. Here's an excerpt:
Since the President will speak at several commencement ceremonies during his term, why did his invitation to speak at Notre Dame create such a stir?
There's nothing wrong with inviting speakers to campus who disagree with the university. I don't think that's the issue here. Here, you have a combination of a commencement address and an honorary doctorate. The honorary doctorate is more troubling than the commencement address because to give him an honorary doctorate in law is to say that he's accomplished something in the field of law that the University of Notre Dame wants to honor. In the past three weeks, we've seen a number of different events, one of which was the change in policy on embryonic stem cell research. The problem is, the areas in which he's been involved with legislation on the issue of abortion have been contrary to Catholic teaching.
Colleges regularly invite people whom they may disagree with to speak on campus. For instance, Wheaton College invited Condoleezza Rice to speak at commencement even though she is pro-choice.
I can see a situation where you have an elected official who may be pro-choice, but it's not the focus or center of their legislative history. For instance, Houston Baptist invited Rudolph Giuliani, but he just gave a speech. He even acknowledged in his speech, "Look, my views on abortion are not held by a vast majority of you in the audience." But I think that Houston Baptist would not have given him an honorary doctorate in law. One of the things Obama is working on right now is perhaps overturning the conscience clause that the Bush administration had instituted, which has a direct bearing on Catholic hospitals. Here, you have a case where somebody claims to extol the virtue of choice but wants to remove choice from the conscience of citizens when it comes to performing or referring people for abortions.
...
Pope John Paul II issued Ex Corde Ecclesiae in 1990 stressing the importance of the Catholic character of Catholic institutions of higher learning. How has Ex Corde Ecclesiae influenced this current debate?
I think the statement has given them a template to look at the relationship between Catholic theology and the university. If places like Notre Dame took it seriously, an invitation to be the commencement speaker and receive an honorary doctorate would not have gone out. For instance, I would welcome Barack Obama to speak at Baylor. But in this case, the honorary doctorate doesn't go to the office of the President. It goes to Barack Obama, even after he ceases to be president. In a way, that gives an imprimatur on him and his views that I don't think Notre Dame should give him. I think if he were just the commencement speaker and not receiving the honorary doctorate, it would tone down the criticism. How can Notre Dame give him an honorary doctorate for excellence in something that our own theology teaches he isn't excellent in?
The real debate is whether theological claims can count as knowledge. I think that's what the Pope is saying: if we think theology is true and knowable, that means it's no different than what we learn in literature or sociology or philosophy. If that's the case, the university is where we should integrate these areas of knowledge. Theology shouldn't be an after thought. It shouldn't be relegated to campus ministry. It's like in the evangelical world, tagging on a Bible verse. You'll have a book on Christianity and science and it'll be regular science and a section of Bible verses. You think, "This isn't integration, this is weird."
This reminds me of Madeline L'Engle's exploration of faith and art in Walking on Water. Art, if it fails to tell the truth, can never be great art, no matter how clever and skillful the artist. Barack Obama may be a great man in many ways, but until he recognizes the truth about the value of human life he will continue to create policies that are at best, weak and at worst, massively destructive.
I think the graduating class of '09 could be really inspired by whatever Obama has to say on May 17th, and I wouldn't want to deprive them of the oppurtunity to hear that. We don't have to agree with everything a person believes to learn from them. But for a Catholic University to bestow an honorary doctorate on someone who clearly has a very poor understanding of the most fundamental rights of Americans is either hollow flattery or major ignorance and, either way, completely inappropriate for an institution of such stature.
Posted by Kimberly Cangelosi
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Lauren's blog has links to her tweets(?). Cool, but I think passing Facebook is a prerequisite. I'm not there yet.
Miasma
I think that's what I'm in.
Janett is not feeling well and is getting depressed about not feeling well and about not being able to regain weight or strength. She's also getting tired of my "buck up, little camper" approach.
I closed my CNI position for a small gain Monday, and thought I'd go short later in the day when the rslly petered out, but it didn't so I didn't. I didn't go long though, because the rally seemed more like a short covering rally than a things are getting better rally. The volume wasn't high enough to indicate a lot of people were buying. Some of the bearish commentators admitted to getting beat up pretty badly this week. I'll think about buying cheap puts Monday morning,
Tuesday, I tried out cold calling to contact new businesses in the Elgin area, not very satisfying. I don't know Elgin all that well and spent time driving aroung looking for addresses. Wednesday I started looking into a GPS device. There's a Garmin 205 model that Best Buy sells for around $150*. That sounds Ok to me. I'm now waiting for Janett to muster the energy for a trip to Best Buy, an outing she'd normally enjoy. Maybe later today.
I visited Kim's blog site. She writes really well and adds photos and, occasionally, other art. Some creature had eaten her tulips. I kind of feel the same way.
* If the review I looked at was current.
Janett is not feeling well and is getting depressed about not feeling well and about not being able to regain weight or strength. She's also getting tired of my "buck up, little camper" approach.
I closed my CNI position for a small gain Monday, and thought I'd go short later in the day when the rslly petered out, but it didn't so I didn't. I didn't go long though, because the rally seemed more like a short covering rally than a things are getting better rally. The volume wasn't high enough to indicate a lot of people were buying. Some of the bearish commentators admitted to getting beat up pretty badly this week. I'll think about buying cheap puts Monday morning,
Tuesday, I tried out cold calling to contact new businesses in the Elgin area, not very satisfying. I don't know Elgin all that well and spent time driving aroung looking for addresses. Wednesday I started looking into a GPS device. There's a Garmin 205 model that Best Buy sells for around $150*. That sounds Ok to me. I'm now waiting for Janett to muster the energy for a trip to Best Buy, an outing she'd normally enjoy. Maybe later today.
I visited Kim's blog site. She writes really well and adds photos and, occasionally, other art. Some creature had eaten her tulips. I kind of feel the same way.
* If the review I looked at was current.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
AIG Article
Kim and I think the best explanation of the financial crisis was provided by NPR a couple months ago. Tim Knight found a real good evaluation of the AIG situation in the recent Rolling Stone. Geithner must feel like Bobby Kennedy the day after Jack got shot. Everybody was in on it but him, and he can't trust anyone. (The everybody being all the Goldman Sachs guys who share the old Bullmoose phiosophy, "What's good for Goldman Sachs is good for the USA!" - and if it isn't it's still good for Goldman Sachs).
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Also in the news, Check your bananas.

World's deadliest spider found in Tulsa store
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Print 1 hr 56 mins agoTULSA, Okla. –
One of the most deadly spiders in the world has been found in the produce section of a Tulsa grocery store. An employee of Whole Foods Market found the Brazilian Wandering Spider Sunday in bananas from Honduras and managed to catch it in a container.
The spider was given to University of Tulsa Animal Facilities director Terry Childs who said this type of spider kills more people than any other.
Childs said a bite will kill a person in about 25 minutes and while there is an antidote he doesn't know of any in the Tulsa area.
Spiders often are found in imported produce, and a manager at Whole Foods says the store regularly checks its goods and that's how the spider was found.
___
Information from: KOTV-TV, http://www.newson6.com
Probably, I'm just in a bad mood (see DRI)
but Yahoo news featured a link to a blogger article about anti-semitism so I went there and found it was the author's view that criticism of Israel's murderous violence against women, children, and the elderly (which groups suffered half the fatalities in Israel's recent "War on Terror") were in fact manifestations of anti-semitism. I tried to post a helpful comment, but ran into some kind of impediment.
Here's what appears on my screen when I visit the Meryl Yourish site:
29 Tom Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
The Israelis did the right thing in humiliating Hamas and killing many.Screw the world and don,t give in to the killers.And I don,t even like the Israelis.
30 Norm Deguere Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
Fact 1: Anti-Israel = Anti-Semetism.
Fact 2: Most Arab governments are NOT secular or democratic.
Fact 3: Israel is clearly the homeland of the Jews. What more do the Muslims want? They have 1/3 of the world and begrudge one Jewish state? One sliver of the world. I mean, the third most important site in Islam stands on the MOST important site to Jews.
Clearly, Israel is in the right. This isn’t rocket science.
31 Andy Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
March 19th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
I thought the natives of the middle east were semites and that the Ashkenazi Jews who largely populate Israel were descended from the Khazars. a Turkic-Mongol tribe whose chief converted his people to Judaism in the 7th century to avoid entagling alliances with the Byzantine or Russian empires. (and to whom Yaweh presumably promised nothing.) Strange that this group after settling in Poland and Russia would become the principal adherents of Zionism and return to a homeland that was never theirs in the first place.
So really it would seem the Israelis are the anti-semites. I hope the facts won’t complicate the discussion too badly.
32 Steve Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Radical Islam is the 21st century equivalent of National Socialism. To paraphrase Golda Meir, when the Palestinians desire their own homeland as much as they want to destroy Israel, then there will be peace.
33 Steve Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
Norm,
That’s as dumb as saying
Fact: Anti-Bush = Anti-American
34 Magyarorszager Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
You know, there is some real critisism over Israel, but the majority is fake, Leftist/Fascist style Propaganda. I don’t think Israel should be destroyed. Israel’s Army never does wrong to others, but there are isolated incidents where there is problems. What I am sick of is BBC or ABC7 posting anti-Israeli (caugh) Anti- Semetic (caugh) biased coverage. It shames me that people from otherwise civilized nations like “Norvay”, “Spain” or “Sveden” are going to the streets. And some claim that Israel’s existance can not play the Holocaust Card. Well, you know what I have to say is that it’s NEARLY all shit the critics are throwing. As long as there are Holocaust Survivors, and their very far decendants are around, Israel will be guaranteed to stay.
But, just as an extra, I personally think Finland, Denmark and major parts of South Korea/India (other than the muslims there)are the only Non-Jewish nations to succesfully put Anti-Semetism in Critical Conditions, like that skiier… ( Trust me, I feel very bad since she passed away, but this is different.)
There might be an Anti-Zionist Elephant there in Saudi Arabia or Iran, but even it, and all the extreme Leftists out there in God’s Universe are not enough to even Mame the Pro-Zionist/Israeli Turtle out there. The Jews (I am Catholic) may be small in number, but they have the power of 15 million Hydrogen Bombs.
35 David Holbert Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
I simply cannot fathom most people’s inability to tell the difference between the arsonist and the fireman (after all, they are both at the fire and smell like smoke). Israel is a tiny part of the world trying to fend off anilation. The Arabs are clearly bent on the distruction of Israel and the conquering of Europe. Wake up!
36 Andy Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
March 19th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
Meryl,
My recent comment on anti-semitism has been “awaiting moderatiom” for over 50 minutes, and four comments (32, 33, 34, and 35) have shown up on the board since I entered mine. Is there some problem with the tone or content? In the interest of preserving the unquestioned integrity of your site, please post my comment. Or post this one by way of acknowleging to your readers, that thoughtful posts are not always welcomed by Meryl Yourish.
My comments are numbered 31 and 36, and, I thought elevated the tone of the discussion.
What am I doing wrong?
Here's what appears on my screen when I visit the Meryl Yourish site:
29 Tom Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
The Israelis did the right thing in humiliating Hamas and killing many.Screw the world and don,t give in to the killers.And I don,t even like the Israelis.
30 Norm Deguere Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
Fact 1: Anti-Israel = Anti-Semetism.
Fact 2: Most Arab governments are NOT secular or democratic.
Fact 3: Israel is clearly the homeland of the Jews. What more do the Muslims want? They have 1/3 of the world and begrudge one Jewish state? One sliver of the world. I mean, the third most important site in Islam stands on the MOST important site to Jews.
Clearly, Israel is in the right. This isn’t rocket science.
31 Andy Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
March 19th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
I thought the natives of the middle east were semites and that the Ashkenazi Jews who largely populate Israel were descended from the Khazars. a Turkic-Mongol tribe whose chief converted his people to Judaism in the 7th century to avoid entagling alliances with the Byzantine or Russian empires. (and to whom Yaweh presumably promised nothing.) Strange that this group after settling in Poland and Russia would become the principal adherents of Zionism and return to a homeland that was never theirs in the first place.
So really it would seem the Israelis are the anti-semites. I hope the facts won’t complicate the discussion too badly.
32 Steve Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Radical Islam is the 21st century equivalent of National Socialism. To paraphrase Golda Meir, when the Palestinians desire their own homeland as much as they want to destroy Israel, then there will be peace.
33 Steve Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
Norm,
That’s as dumb as saying
Fact: Anti-Bush = Anti-American
34 Magyarorszager Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
You know, there is some real critisism over Israel, but the majority is fake, Leftist/Fascist style Propaganda. I don’t think Israel should be destroyed. Israel’s Army never does wrong to others, but there are isolated incidents where there is problems. What I am sick of is BBC or ABC7 posting anti-Israeli (caugh) Anti- Semetic (caugh) biased coverage. It shames me that people from otherwise civilized nations like “Norvay”, “Spain” or “Sveden” are going to the streets. And some claim that Israel’s existance can not play the Holocaust Card. Well, you know what I have to say is that it’s NEARLY all shit the critics are throwing. As long as there are Holocaust Survivors, and their very far decendants are around, Israel will be guaranteed to stay.
But, just as an extra, I personally think Finland, Denmark and major parts of South Korea/India (other than the muslims there)are the only Non-Jewish nations to succesfully put Anti-Semetism in Critical Conditions, like that skiier… ( Trust me, I feel very bad since she passed away, but this is different.)
There might be an Anti-Zionist Elephant there in Saudi Arabia or Iran, but even it, and all the extreme Leftists out there in God’s Universe are not enough to even Mame the Pro-Zionist/Israeli Turtle out there. The Jews (I am Catholic) may be small in number, but they have the power of 15 million Hydrogen Bombs.
35 David Holbert Says:
March 19th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
I simply cannot fathom most people’s inability to tell the difference between the arsonist and the fireman (after all, they are both at the fire and smell like smoke). Israel is a tiny part of the world trying to fend off anilation. The Arabs are clearly bent on the distruction of Israel and the conquering of Europe. Wake up!
36 Andy Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
March 19th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
Meryl,
My recent comment on anti-semitism has been “awaiting moderatiom” for over 50 minutes, and four comments (32, 33, 34, and 35) have shown up on the board since I entered mine. Is there some problem with the tone or content? In the interest of preserving the unquestioned integrity of your site, please post my comment. Or post this one by way of acknowleging to your readers, that thoughtful posts are not always welcomed by Meryl Yourish.
My comments are numbered 31 and 36, and, I thought elevated the tone of the discussion.
What am I doing wrong?
Monday, March 16, 2009
I don't think I'm crazy but maybe I am.
It's that DRI (Darden Restaurants)thing again. This trade has troubled me even more than my GYMB put last winter. Then, I had a May contract at $35 and when it expired the stock was trading $10 higher than that. After my expiration date it dropped back to $35, then 6 mo later to $25, then a couple weeks ago from $25 to $15 in a couple of days. That was a blowout for me, and like with Darden I never placed a stop loss order. I suppose it was a show of defiance. But I'm a year more experienced now and, one would hope smarter, so why am I stuck in another death grip with a stock that refuses to fall. Darden went as low as $24.11 on the 6th then rebounded to over $30 today. Well, my put expires this Friday and earnings are due to be reported Wednesday and the stock has to fall below $24 for me to break even. Even a bad earnings report on Wednesday might not drop the stock $6 in two days. So did I graciously acknowledge defeat and accept the couple hundred dollar loss with poise and equanimity? Of course not - I bought a $30 put also closing on Friday. If the stock drops to 27.00 by Friday I'll clear enough to cover the loss on the other contract and call it a moral victory. Meanwhile the Canadian railway call has done pretty well, and Caterpillar was up then back down. Maybe I'll close them in the morning and focus all my emotional energy on negative vibes for Darden. If Darden is up a buck and a half tomorrow you probably wont hear from me for a couple of days.
On a happier note Kim and Ross celebrated their first anniversary this week. Hooray for them. They dropped by Saturday and we talked and laughed a lot. Ooops, I'm on my new laptop and don't have a picture to post. I'll do that tomorrow.
I couldn't wait so I went to Kim's blog and swiped a photo:

Love to all.
On a happier note Kim and Ross celebrated their first anniversary this week. Hooray for them. They dropped by Saturday and we talked and laughed a lot. Ooops, I'm on my new laptop and don't have a picture to post. I'll do that tomorrow.
I couldn't wait so I went to Kim's blog and swiped a photo:

Love to all.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Pakistan?
In my effort to comment occasionally on current topics in the news, I've run up against the sand dune that is Pakistan. Sand dune because it's shaped by wind and tides, because it's hard to gain footing or traction, because there seems to be a top, but no pinnacle; a nuclear power with vast numbers of urban poor, vast numbers of rural poor, military elite, corrupt governments, wealthy industrialists, scheming entrepeneurs, ungovernable tribal regions, border hostilities with India, Islamic fundamentalists, and the WOG's.
WOGs are "westernized oriental gentlemen", a phenomena common in the aftermath of British colonial rule. I'm particularly referring to the legal community. The fellows in with black suits with brief cases currently in the news for demonstrating against President Zadari, who won election in 2008. Their principle complaint is Zadari's failure to reinstate a supreme court chief justice fired by the former military dictator, Musharraf. The problem for Zadari, widower of assasinated Benazir Bhutto, is that the supreme court justice had been clear in saying he wouldn't approve of Musharraf's deal that allowed Bhutto to bring her husband back to Pakistan after he was exiled, having served prison time on corruption convictions.
Zadari's problems also involve the former prime minister, Sharif, who was deposed by Musharraf and leads an opposition party. Sharif was a good Prime Minister, and is the son of a leading industrialist, posessing considerable personal wealth. Zadari's problem is that when Sharif led his party into an alliance with Zadari he stated two conditions, that there would be no deal struck with Musharraf, and that the Supreme Court justice would be reinstated. Zadari, inheriting Bhutto's party, was going to win the election after Bhutto's assasination, so why did he agree to that second condition? Presumably, because he knew that once elected he would ignore it, and use the powers of the office to isolate and marginalize Sharif. He's tried.
While Sharif is not an Islamist, he is a nationalist, and has gotten along with the generals in the past. Zadari is a corrupt opportunist who married well, and enjoys the support of the US because he's tolerant of American incursions into the tribal regions bordering Afghanistan. He's replaced his wife's senior advisors with his own people in the party hierarchy. As I've said before, if you want to appraise the state of American diplomacy, look at the people we're supporting abroad. Usually, they're of the Zadari ilk.
The generals will play a role in settling the current unrest, and may not support Zadari too strenuously, since his ties to America will impose on the army the role of fighting with the Islamic fundamentalists, a job they don't really want and, based on recent developments in the Swat valley, may not be competent to do.
PS One other complicating factor in the Pakistani formulation is a simmering antagonism between natives and the more enterprising emigres who fled India in the late 40's. Shamir's father was one of those emigres.
WOGs are "westernized oriental gentlemen", a phenomena common in the aftermath of British colonial rule. I'm particularly referring to the legal community. The fellows in with black suits with brief cases currently in the news for demonstrating against President Zadari, who won election in 2008. Their principle complaint is Zadari's failure to reinstate a supreme court chief justice fired by the former military dictator, Musharraf. The problem for Zadari, widower of assasinated Benazir Bhutto, is that the supreme court justice had been clear in saying he wouldn't approve of Musharraf's deal that allowed Bhutto to bring her husband back to Pakistan after he was exiled, having served prison time on corruption convictions.
Zadari's problems also involve the former prime minister, Sharif, who was deposed by Musharraf and leads an opposition party. Sharif was a good Prime Minister, and is the son of a leading industrialist, posessing considerable personal wealth. Zadari's problem is that when Sharif led his party into an alliance with Zadari he stated two conditions, that there would be no deal struck with Musharraf, and that the Supreme Court justice would be reinstated. Zadari, inheriting Bhutto's party, was going to win the election after Bhutto's assasination, so why did he agree to that second condition? Presumably, because he knew that once elected he would ignore it, and use the powers of the office to isolate and marginalize Sharif. He's tried.
While Sharif is not an Islamist, he is a nationalist, and has gotten along with the generals in the past. Zadari is a corrupt opportunist who married well, and enjoys the support of the US because he's tolerant of American incursions into the tribal regions bordering Afghanistan. He's replaced his wife's senior advisors with his own people in the party hierarchy. As I've said before, if you want to appraise the state of American diplomacy, look at the people we're supporting abroad. Usually, they're of the Zadari ilk.
The generals will play a role in settling the current unrest, and may not support Zadari too strenuously, since his ties to America will impose on the army the role of fighting with the Islamic fundamentalists, a job they don't really want and, based on recent developments in the Swat valley, may not be competent to do.
PS One other complicating factor in the Pakistani formulation is a simmering antagonism between natives and the more enterprising emigres who fled India in the late 40's. Shamir's father was one of those emigres.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Personalities
Market forces are bigger than personalities, but personalities are interesting.
I remember a young man named Phil Purcell from Notre Dame. He was a nice fellow, thoughtful and intelligent. He was successful in his career. After ND he attended the U of C and the London School of Economics. After a stint with the consulting firm, McKinsey and Co, he joined Sears at the Chicago headquarters as director of planning and acquisitions. He managed Sear's acquisition of Dean Witter, and started up the Discover credit card. He managed the spin-off of Dean Witter from Sears and as CEO of Dean Witter led that brokerage to growth and profitability and eventually the acquisition of the investment banking firm of Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley enjoyed growth and profitability under his leadership. He emphasized the traditional businesses of consumer brokerage and investment banking and was not an advocate of the more highly leveraged investments coming into vogue on Wall Street.
He also declined to participate in the Big Apple culture, commuting to his home in Winfield, Ill. at week-ends. The New Yorkers labelled him as an egotistical outsider and when he dismissed executives who protested his conservative leadership the New Yorkers started a very public public campaign to have him ousted, which eventually succeeded.
Siding with the Group of Eight former partners at Morgan Stanley advocating Purcell's dismissal was Vikram Pandit, one of the Wall Street crowd who had been annoyed with Purcell's emphasis on a traditional banking and investment philosophy, and Purcell's failure to have Morgan Stanley acquire (or be acquired by) one of the high flying banks to increase available capital for bigger deal making.
The big bonus investment bankers ultimately were successful in forcing Purcell out at Morgan Stanley, but in retrospect, judging by results at the other investment companies and those high flying banks, I wonder if Purcell wasn't correct in his approach and vindicated by subsequent events. His buy out at Morgan Stanley was 60 million dollars, so I guess we don't have to worry about Purcell, and he's probably been happier to survey the carnage on Wall Street from his home in Winfield than he would have been dealing with the self promoting investment bankers on Wall Street.
Vikram Pandit, the Big Apple's favorite, ended up at Citigroup, from where he sparked yesterday's rally with a letter to employees saying he couldn't understand why the banks share prices were so low since the company had booked profits for the first two months of 2009. Well, Vikram, I suppose your timely announcement precedes the requisite write down of bad assets at quarter end, and might have been a ploy in your efforts to persuade Washington to amend the mark to market requirements, but if you really don't know why Citi's shares are in the tank, just stick around.
I remember a young man named Phil Purcell from Notre Dame. He was a nice fellow, thoughtful and intelligent. He was successful in his career. After ND he attended the U of C and the London School of Economics. After a stint with the consulting firm, McKinsey and Co, he joined Sears at the Chicago headquarters as director of planning and acquisitions. He managed Sear's acquisition of Dean Witter, and started up the Discover credit card. He managed the spin-off of Dean Witter from Sears and as CEO of Dean Witter led that brokerage to growth and profitability and eventually the acquisition of the investment banking firm of Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley enjoyed growth and profitability under his leadership. He emphasized the traditional businesses of consumer brokerage and investment banking and was not an advocate of the more highly leveraged investments coming into vogue on Wall Street.
He also declined to participate in the Big Apple culture, commuting to his home in Winfield, Ill. at week-ends. The New Yorkers labelled him as an egotistical outsider and when he dismissed executives who protested his conservative leadership the New Yorkers started a very public public campaign to have him ousted, which eventually succeeded.
Siding with the Group of Eight former partners at Morgan Stanley advocating Purcell's dismissal was Vikram Pandit, one of the Wall Street crowd who had been annoyed with Purcell's emphasis on a traditional banking and investment philosophy, and Purcell's failure to have Morgan Stanley acquire (or be acquired by) one of the high flying banks to increase available capital for bigger deal making.
The big bonus investment bankers ultimately were successful in forcing Purcell out at Morgan Stanley, but in retrospect, judging by results at the other investment companies and those high flying banks, I wonder if Purcell wasn't correct in his approach and vindicated by subsequent events. His buy out at Morgan Stanley was 60 million dollars, so I guess we don't have to worry about Purcell, and he's probably been happier to survey the carnage on Wall Street from his home in Winfield than he would have been dealing with the self promoting investment bankers on Wall Street.
Vikram Pandit, the Big Apple's favorite, ended up at Citigroup, from where he sparked yesterday's rally with a letter to employees saying he couldn't understand why the banks share prices were so low since the company had booked profits for the first two months of 2009. Well, Vikram, I suppose your timely announcement precedes the requisite write down of bad assets at quarter end, and might have been a ploy in your efforts to persuade Washington to amend the mark to market requirements, but if you really don't know why Citi's shares are in the tank, just stick around.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
aaargh
Well the rally's here.
I brought some more "insurance" in the form of a April call on Caterpillar.
My DRI position may end up as a total loss. Even if the earnings report is bad on the 15th, if there's a rally going on, analysts will say performance was bad, but "better than expected" and the company is "well positioned for the recovery"; neither of which happen to be true, but may reflect the mood of the market.
On a happier note, Janett had a q-p-w-c for lunch with fries and a vanilla shake, and cleaned her plate. Good enough news in itself, but then she wasn't hungry at dinner time, and I was left to my own devices and heated up some kielbasa in a can of butter beans. I, likewise, cleaned my plate. Yumm, butter beans.
Tax season is slowing down, so I'm cranking up my marketing psyche, referring to a list of new business licences issued for the last nine months in Cook and the collar counties to comprise a prospect list. Thanks, Tribune. What will we do when there are no more newspapers?
I brought some more "insurance" in the form of a April call on Caterpillar.
My DRI position may end up as a total loss. Even if the earnings report is bad on the 15th, if there's a rally going on, analysts will say performance was bad, but "better than expected" and the company is "well positioned for the recovery"; neither of which happen to be true, but may reflect the mood of the market.
On a happier note, Janett had a q-p-w-c for lunch with fries and a vanilla shake, and cleaned her plate. Good enough news in itself, but then she wasn't hungry at dinner time, and I was left to my own devices and heated up some kielbasa in a can of butter beans. I, likewise, cleaned my plate. Yumm, butter beans.
Tax season is slowing down, so I'm cranking up my marketing psyche, referring to a list of new business licences issued for the last nine months in Cook and the collar counties to comprise a prospect list. Thanks, Tribune. What will we do when there are no more newspapers?
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Circles within circles
Sunday morning. Mom and I are watching an old movie (1943) named The More the Merrier wirh Jean Arthur, Charles Coburn, and Joel McCrea. It's a funny movie, directed by George Stevens. I ought to go the the movie data base and check out Jean Arthur. I think I've enjoyed her performances in other movies.
Meanwhile, I was reading this news story. What the heck is going on?
Meanwhile, I was reading this news story. What the heck is going on?
Thursday, March 05, 2009
Please excuse my recent fit of pique,
It was late. I was tired and angry about being on the long side of a trade and that Darden wasn't falling. I didn't do the things I said I would do. I entered the orders, but cancelled them when the market was opening higher the next morning. Darden closed below $25 today, and is trading below short, medium, and long term moving averages, all three of which are now declining. CNI is above 30, having enjoyed a good day yesterday and a not so good day today. I think a quarterly earnings report from Darden is due out on the 15th. Put volume was very heavy at $25 early this week which I think means a lot of other folks share my anticipation of a decline in the share price. Of course for every buyer there has to be a seller.
I haven't previously mentioned the 50 year reunion being organized for my grammar school class. John S. and Tom C. are the planners. Tom gave me the names of four people to call to elicit interest, and the memories the names brought to mind, though some, of course, were embarassing make me think I'd really enjoy seeing the four of them and as many others as might show up.
Janett and I had a good day today including running some errands, walking around a bit and lunching out. Uh Oh, Mark just called looking for a missing cake pan. I've got to check the cupboards. Hmmm I guess I've never written that word before.
I haven't previously mentioned the 50 year reunion being organized for my grammar school class. John S. and Tom C. are the planners. Tom gave me the names of four people to call to elicit interest, and the memories the names brought to mind, though some, of course, were embarassing make me think I'd really enjoy seeing the four of them and as many others as might show up.
Janett and I had a good day today including running some errands, walking around a bit and lunching out. Uh Oh, Mark just called looking for a missing cake pan. I've got to check the cupboards. Hmmm I guess I've never written that word before.
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
I need to be more positive.
I need to consider my venture to the bullish side as though I was simply taking out insurance to protect me in the event a rally had occurred. I need to love my negative side. I need to close out that Canadian Railway insurance policy and buy a put on Visa.
I need to celebrate as the credit card company gets its just deserts and revel at the rewards as Darden crashes. Sure a rally is still possible, but am I the kind of guy who's happy being long a railroad stock? Not since I was ten and buying the B&O at the Monopoly board.
I'm a bear, and I know it's crappy out there and getting crappier.
Janett is doing a little better the last couple of days. Not making any promises, but if its 50 on Friday and not raining I'm going to try to go for a walk with her.
Tomorrow, besides completing a clients 1120, I plan on a visit at Steffy and Mark's for dome playtime with the boys.
Now, I have to go out and move my car to the other sise of the street.
PS I also have to find my speakers and plug them in so I can listen to my playlist.
Also, I want to listen to more of our Christmas present from John. There hasn't been enough music in my life the last couple months.
I need to celebrate as the credit card company gets its just deserts and revel at the rewards as Darden crashes. Sure a rally is still possible, but am I the kind of guy who's happy being long a railroad stock? Not since I was ten and buying the B&O at the Monopoly board.
I'm a bear, and I know it's crappy out there and getting crappier.
Janett is doing a little better the last couple of days. Not making any promises, but if its 50 on Friday and not raining I'm going to try to go for a walk with her.
Tomorrow, besides completing a clients 1120, I plan on a visit at Steffy and Mark's for dome playtime with the boys.
Now, I have to go out and move my car to the other sise of the street.
PS I also have to find my speakers and plug them in so I can listen to my playlist.
Also, I want to listen to more of our Christmas present from John. There hasn't been enough music in my life the last couple months.
A quote
The most violent revolutions in an individuals beliefs leave most of his old order standing......... New truth is always a go-between, a smoother-over of transitions. It marries old opinion to new fact so as ever to show a minimum of jolt, a maximum of continuity.
~ William James (1906)
Hmmm, maybe the rally monkey was trying to marry old opinion to new facts. The Canadian Railway stock I bought a call on as a bullish play has lost just over 2% as compared to 5 or 6% on the S&P and DJIA, but yesterday dropped below its previous low. I should close out that position, but probably won't. The good news is that DRI is down 8% over the same 5 days.
~ William James (1906)
Hmmm, maybe the rally monkey was trying to marry old opinion to new facts. The Canadian Railway stock I bought a call on as a bullish play has lost just over 2% as compared to 5 or 6% on the S&P and DJIA, but yesterday dropped below its previous low. I should close out that position, but probably won't. The good news is that DRI is down 8% over the same 5 days.
Sunday, March 01, 2009
March 1, still
I was going to go to Willow Creek with Louie, but didn't wake up in time. I guess I was tired. I'll read a little of What Paul Meant, instead. Someone named Dave Ramsey was epeaking there today, a nationally syndicated financial writer who shares Bill Hybel's respect for living debt free, and so counselled the flock. He also suggested the market was at it's bottom, and said he was increasing the allocation into equities in his personal monthly budget. Though the market was down on Friday (including the Canadian National Railway, but not my nemesis, Darden), I'll wait for Monday to see if this rally is really going to happen.
Just now, I'm awaiting a visit from Steffie, Mark, and the boys. She's going to augment my housekeeping efforts by taking the vaccuum out for a spin around the place. I hope she'll resist the temptation to take the dishes I've washed from the cupboard and rewash them.
Just now, I'm awaiting a visit from Steffie, Mark, and the boys. She's going to augment my housekeeping efforts by taking the vaccuum out for a spin around the place. I hope she'll resist the temptation to take the dishes I've washed from the cupboard and rewash them.
March 1st
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Below are some thoughts from my tech guru,
I would say he'd be characterized as a overt capitalist, so he's not repudiating the system just the practices employed by aggresive unscrupulous practicioners.
I'll post somerthing more personal later
In my view, 1982 through 2007 was the golden age of capitalism. No one announced its beginning, and very few people realized its end, but as measured by the pendulum of social and economic change, I believe the generational timespan of that quarter-century embodies the resurgence, and then self-immolation, of American capitalism.
Off the top of my head, those years, we had:
Reagonomics;
Yuppies;
The great bull markets of 1982-1987 and 1991-2000;
Lower taxes;
A more docile IRS;
A resurgence in Republican strength (think Newt Gingrinch);
A strong America capable of winning major wars in 72 hours;
Historic IPOs like Netscape and Google;
The rise of Silicon Valley from obscurity to the center of the world;
Economic globalization (think BRIC);
The collapse of the USSR;
Hero-worship of the rich (including hedge fund managers);
Widespread popularity of books about money and assets;
I could go on and on, but you get the idea.
The pendulum has just started to swing the other way, and I don't think it's a little bobble before we return to the above. I seriously think we are in for just as long as period - - and just as deep a change - - as the era above. We'll be stumbling our way back to where things were in the late 1970s..........malaise, weakness, and Billy Beer.
What would people think if, just six months ago, you speculated that Citigroup would be a nationalized institution? Would they laugh at you? Look at you as if you were insane? Cart you off to a rubber room?
That, of course, is just the tip of the iceberg. When Obama speaks of a "once-in-a-generation opportunity" to change the government, he isn't talking about remodeling the oval office. The "opportunity" is the most dramatic expansion of the government and its instrusions than any of us have seen in our lifetimes.
All I'm saying is that the market's 50%+ plunge is signaling the changes to come, and then the market finally bottoms (and my best guess is that this is going to be in the 4000 area on the Dow), we will have been witness to exploited "opportunities" that we can scarcely imagine today.
I'll post somerthing more personal later
In my view, 1982 through 2007 was the golden age of capitalism. No one announced its beginning, and very few people realized its end, but as measured by the pendulum of social and economic change, I believe the generational timespan of that quarter-century embodies the resurgence, and then self-immolation, of American capitalism.
Off the top of my head, those years, we had:
Reagonomics;
Yuppies;
The great bull markets of 1982-1987 and 1991-2000;
Lower taxes;
A more docile IRS;
A resurgence in Republican strength (think Newt Gingrinch);
A strong America capable of winning major wars in 72 hours;
Historic IPOs like Netscape and Google;
The rise of Silicon Valley from obscurity to the center of the world;
Economic globalization (think BRIC);
The collapse of the USSR;
Hero-worship of the rich (including hedge fund managers);
Widespread popularity of books about money and assets;
I could go on and on, but you get the idea.
The pendulum has just started to swing the other way, and I don't think it's a little bobble before we return to the above. I seriously think we are in for just as long as period - - and just as deep a change - - as the era above. We'll be stumbling our way back to where things were in the late 1970s..........malaise, weakness, and Billy Beer.
What would people think if, just six months ago, you speculated that Citigroup would be a nationalized institution? Would they laugh at you? Look at you as if you were insane? Cart you off to a rubber room?
That, of course, is just the tip of the iceberg. When Obama speaks of a "once-in-a-generation opportunity" to change the government, he isn't talking about remodeling the oval office. The "opportunity" is the most dramatic expansion of the government and its instrusions than any of us have seen in our lifetimes.
All I'm saying is that the market's 50%+ plunge is signaling the changes to come, and then the market finally bottoms (and my best guess is that this is going to be in the 4000 area on the Dow), we will have been witness to exploited "opportunities" that we can scarcely imagine today.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
The recently announced rally has been indefinitely
postponed. At least it didn't happen today. Which is fine. My Canadian railroad was down 16 cents. The important thing is that Darden fell $1.75 today and is now below (slightly) its 50 day moving average, and the 38.6 retracement level. That's a 6% decline for the day and brings the stock back where I "sold" it. The stock was down early when the Dow was up 100, so I don't think it was just following the market down. Maybe someone got a peak at the numbers for the quarter just ended, and didn't like what they saw.
I really don't want a rally to lift Darden. As you may have noticed, I've become emotionally involved. But Louie's rationale, while not convincing, is compelling. One thing I didn't mention last night, but the afficiandos among you realize, is that 7100 on the Dow is one half the high of 72 weeks ago. There is a rally lurking out there.
Maybe going from a 100 point gain this morning to an 88 point loss this evening will delay the rally for anther day or two, and we could see another 80 point loss with Darden leading the way down.
Tim Knight posted a list of 30 stocks with bullish possibilities today. While he's
not ready to go long just yet, I think the little hairs on the back of his neck are standing up too.
I really don't want a rally to lift Darden. As you may have noticed, I've become emotionally involved. But Louie's rationale, while not convincing, is compelling. One thing I didn't mention last night, but the afficiandos among you realize, is that 7100 on the Dow is one half the high of 72 weeks ago. There is a rally lurking out there.
Maybe going from a 100 point gain this morning to an 88 point loss this evening will delay the rally for anther day or two, and we could see another 80 point loss with Darden leading the way down.
Tim Knight posted a list of 30 stocks with bullish possibilities today. While he's
not ready to go long just yet, I think the little hairs on the back of his neck are standing up too.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Louie says...
its rally time in the stock market. Last week he was projecting a low of 7100 on the Dow based on what appeared (to me) to be a technically obscure 7100 high twelve years ago. Now having reached that projected low and seeing a double bottom on the Dow, and being 72 weeks out from the top he says its rally time. Hmmmm, 12 years is 144 months and 72 is half of 144. I don't know why these kind of numbers are significant, but I do believe wizard technicians look at the market having at least 2dimensions. Price movement being the vertical, time being the horizontal, with volume a possible candidate for the third dimension of depth. When we used to enjoy more time at the bar Louie would spend hours explaining Gann theories to me, and lapse into numeralogical phenomenology. When he introduced astrological observations, I'd know we were late for the door. Anyway, he's not saying that the market won't eventually go lower, but he's projecting at least a rally to the post election high of around 8,600.
Since he went to the trouble of phoning me with this prognosis, I'll swallow my pride and go look for an attractive call to buy.
It's later now and I entered an order to buy CNI (Canadian National Railway)
Things in Canada are pretty OK, Eh? My call is for April at $30 and cost me $4.20.
Well, $420, actually. That means I'm buying the right to purchase the stock in April for $30 The stock is now at $32.66. First, I went to Tim Knight's site to see if he was reccomending any specific calls. Nope, none, not a one. He's very bearish. OK, Louie we're on our own on this one. PS I didn't close out my DRI.
Since he went to the trouble of phoning me with this prognosis, I'll swallow my pride and go look for an attractive call to buy.
It's later now and I entered an order to buy CNI (Canadian National Railway)
Things in Canada are pretty OK, Eh? My call is for April at $30 and cost me $4.20.
Well, $420, actually. That means I'm buying the right to purchase the stock in April for $30 The stock is now at $32.66. First, I went to Tim Knight's site to see if he was reccomending any specific calls. Nope, none, not a one. He's very bearish. OK, Louie we're on our own on this one. PS I didn't close out my DRI.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Hi.
Did I tell you abouy my cell phone? I left it at the office on my last day of work. I knew I was leaving without it, but I'd looked everywhere. I hoped I'd left it at home, though I was pretty sure I hadn't. Well, it turned up there last week and I ran over there and picked it up today. I mention that because it may be a contributing cause of my current sense of isolation; perhaps solitude is a better word.
I've been interacting with folks positively, family, friends, associates. Is my sense of aloneness a phenomena that afflicts people who try to start a little business? Thank goodness I don't have to worry about meeting a payroll.
Or is DRI making me crazy? The market was down big on Friday and Darden was up nearly a dollar. Down 84 cents today. An investment blog today described them as being practically a dead man walking, with a current ratio of .4 and an acid test ratio of .1. These are very bad numbers, but still the stock refuses to crack.
I'm not worried about a couple hundred bucks, and I never claim infallibility. I just don't like the market telling me I'm wrong when I think I'm right.
On a homier note, we called the pizza place this evening an asked them to deliver a couple sandwiches. Italian sausage for me. Rick's Special for Janett. That's an Italian beef with green peppers and red sauce and cheese. Oh, and she ordered onion rings with it. She only ate half, but I think that kind of appetite is probably a good sign. She's still weak and hasn't felt well. I take my encouragement where I can get it these days.
Love to all.
I've been interacting with folks positively, family, friends, associates. Is my sense of aloneness a phenomena that afflicts people who try to start a little business? Thank goodness I don't have to worry about meeting a payroll.
Or is DRI making me crazy? The market was down big on Friday and Darden was up nearly a dollar. Down 84 cents today. An investment blog today described them as being practically a dead man walking, with a current ratio of .4 and an acid test ratio of .1. These are very bad numbers, but still the stock refuses to crack.
I'm not worried about a couple hundred bucks, and I never claim infallibility. I just don't like the market telling me I'm wrong when I think I'm right.
On a homier note, we called the pizza place this evening an asked them to deliver a couple sandwiches. Italian sausage for me. Rick's Special for Janett. That's an Italian beef with green peppers and red sauce and cheese. Oh, and she ordered onion rings with it. She only ate half, but I think that kind of appetite is probably a good sign. She's still weak and hasn't felt well. I take my encouragement where I can get it these days.
Love to all.
Friday, February 20, 2009
the market
What with all that's been happening, I haven't mentioned my last trade. As I've said before I try not to do anything in the market when Janett's unwell because my judgement and focus may be impaired. I entered an order to buy a Darden put the Saturday night before Janett and I went to the hospital.
The stock price was around 26.25 so I bought a put at 25. In the following weeks the stock price rose to 29.60 - whoops! But that was the same price at which a recent high was reached and the stock fell away from that high before my purchase, so I hoped it would be a price the stock would not surpass. Sure enough the price declined in the last several days back to 27.20 The issue is still in doubt.
I didn't have a good technical reason for going short at that point, except that the stock price had doubled in the last couple months, and that I hoped the 29.60 price would resist penetration and protect me on the upside.
My reason for "shorting" the stock was that in the bad economy sales volume would fall and the company has borrowed a LOT of money short term to finance expansion. I was motivated by the prospect that the stock could give back much of it's gains from the $14 low on November 20. Second guessing myself, I think institutional investors feel the company's restaurants (Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Bahama Breeze) have "brand identity" that will maintain their customer base even in tough times. Also, I think the company has a good PR team promoting this attitude. On the contrary, I think the restaurants will start to cut corners with smaller portions, less attrsctive specials, and that staff morale will decline with lower patronage and gratuities. eroding their popularity. We'll see what happens.
The stock price was around 26.25 so I bought a put at 25. In the following weeks the stock price rose to 29.60 - whoops! But that was the same price at which a recent high was reached and the stock fell away from that high before my purchase, so I hoped it would be a price the stock would not surpass. Sure enough the price declined in the last several days back to 27.20 The issue is still in doubt.
I didn't have a good technical reason for going short at that point, except that the stock price had doubled in the last couple months, and that I hoped the 29.60 price would resist penetration and protect me on the upside.
My reason for "shorting" the stock was that in the bad economy sales volume would fall and the company has borrowed a LOT of money short term to finance expansion. I was motivated by the prospect that the stock could give back much of it's gains from the $14 low on November 20. Second guessing myself, I think institutional investors feel the company's restaurants (Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Bahama Breeze) have "brand identity" that will maintain their customer base even in tough times. Also, I think the company has a good PR team promoting this attitude. On the contrary, I think the restaurants will start to cut corners with smaller portions, less attrsctive specials, and that staff morale will decline with lower patronage and gratuities. eroding their popularity. We'll see what happens.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
I suppose from the sign of the scales one can
imagine it to be a characteristic of Libras to be always seeking equilibrium and some kind of metaphysical harmony. One might also suppose Libras don't respond very well too tumultuous episodes. Superficially, we might maintain the same disposition, but in fact we're being stretched in uncomfortable ways.
This recent medical crisis for Janett coincided with the much anticipated completion of my temp assignment and the begining of my bookkeeping venture. I'm probably not handling either of these situations as well as I'd like to, but I think we're getting through.
I'll post more later.
This recent medical crisis for Janett coincided with the much anticipated completion of my temp assignment and the begining of my bookkeeping venture. I'm probably not handling either of these situations as well as I'd like to, but I think we're getting through.
I'll post more later.
Saturday, February 07, 2009
Things are much better
Janett is well.
She left the hospital yesterday for a little more recuperation time to be spent at the home of Kim and Ross in Lombard. Steffie brought Mark and Owen here yesterday and gave our place a thorough tidying, so when Janett's a couple days stronger she'll be able to be comfortable here.
I'm going to be busy today, so this is just a short note, but I want to express my respect and appreciation for Kim, Ross, Steffie, Mark, Noah, Lauren, Jason and Dee for their loving devotion to Janett in a difficult time. Also, I want to say that Janett demonstrated qualities of courage, dignity, and gratitude that we might have observed in my mother, but in few others over the years.
I'll leave it to Steffie to thank Crystal and Sarah, but I should mention our appreciation of the kindnesses of Carrie and Bill, and Louie, and Jose and Mel.
And a shout out to daughter Val, our brothers, John, and Sally Miller, Si's wife for their concern and prayers.
Ooops, that reminds me. I have some calls to make.
Love
PS. I should also express our gratitude to Dr Wallace, Janett's surgeon and to the many devoted caregivers at St Alexius. They were all extremely competent, thoughtful, and kind. We recognize how special they all were and know that reflects on the administative staff as well.
She left the hospital yesterday for a little more recuperation time to be spent at the home of Kim and Ross in Lombard. Steffie brought Mark and Owen here yesterday and gave our place a thorough tidying, so when Janett's a couple days stronger she'll be able to be comfortable here.
I'm going to be busy today, so this is just a short note, but I want to express my respect and appreciation for Kim, Ross, Steffie, Mark, Noah, Lauren, Jason and Dee for their loving devotion to Janett in a difficult time. Also, I want to say that Janett demonstrated qualities of courage, dignity, and gratitude that we might have observed in my mother, but in few others over the years.
I'll leave it to Steffie to thank Crystal and Sarah, but I should mention our appreciation of the kindnesses of Carrie and Bill, and Louie, and Jose and Mel.
And a shout out to daughter Val, our brothers, John, and Sally Miller, Si's wife for their concern and prayers.
Ooops, that reminds me. I have some calls to make.
Love
PS. I should also express our gratitude to Dr Wallace, Janett's surgeon and to the many devoted caregivers at St Alexius. They were all extremely competent, thoughtful, and kind. We recognize how special they all were and know that reflects on the administative staff as well.
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